Rolex Reigns Supreme as Swiss Watch Industry Faces Headwinds
The prestigious annual report on the Swiss watch industry, a collaborative effort between consultancy LuxeConsult and Morgan Stanley for the eighth consecutive year, paints a picture of both record achievements and emerging challenges. While the 2025 findings confirm the market’s impressive scale, they also signal a potential slowdown, driven by macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical instability, and wavering demand in crucial markets like the US, Europe, and notably China. Echoing export statistics from the Swiss Federation of the Watch Industry (FHS), which showed a 3% decline in 2025 after consecutive record years, the Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult report underscores an industry navigating turbulent waters – with one colossal exception firmly bucking the trend.

The report, renowned for its accuracy and detailed brand-level analysis, reveals a market contracting after a robust post-pandemic rebound. The most striking development is the intense polarization within the sector. While the industry giants remain resilient or even continue to grow, numerous second-tier brands are experiencing significant sales declines. “The largest brands generally gain further market share,” the report observes, a trend mirrored across the wider luxury goods landscape. Furthermore, performance starkly favors the ultra-high-end segment. Watches retailing above CHF 50,000 accounted for a substantial 33.5% of total Swiss watch export value and a staggering 84% of the market’s growth in 2025.
This bifurcation is starkly visible in the performance of the top 50 brands. Only 11 are estimated to have grown in 2025. The combined turnover for this elite group contracted, falling from CHF 36.1 billion to CHF 35.3 billion. More dramatically, the estimated number of units sold plummeted from nearly 16 million to just over 13 million, signaling a significant rise in the average price per watch as brands and consumers gravitate towards higher-value pieces.
Delving deeper, the report confirms the dominance of privately-owned powerhouses. Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille – collectively termed the “Big Four” – not only weathered the challenging climate but expanded their collective grip. They now command nearly half (47%) of the total market share, a remarkable increase of 10.2 percentage points from 2024. In stark contrast, all three major publicly listed conglomerates – LVMH, Richemont, and especially the Swatch Group – saw their estimated sales decline. The Swatch Group reportedly suffered a significant 14.6% drop in sales for the year.
Rolex stands as the undisputed titan. Its estimated turnover surged past the CHF 10.5 billion barrier, solidifying a leadership position Morgan Stanley describes as unmatched by any other luxury brand in its sector. While its sister brand, Tudor, faced a difficult year according to the estimates, Rolex’s dominance remains unchallenged. Cartier (Richemont) solidified its position as the second-largest brand, benefiting from a trend that also saw strong performances from fellow jewellery-focused watchmakers Bulgari and Van Cleef & Arpels. Omega, rounding out the top three, mirrored the broader struggles of the Swatch Group, albeit less severely than some of its siblings.

The report also highlights the continued, though more measured, growth of larger independent brands like FP Journe, H. Moser & Cie, and newcomer MB&F, following spectacular rises in previous years. However, the overarching narrative remains one of intense market concentration. Just four entities – the Swatch Group, the Rolex group (where Rolex alone accounts for 32% of the entire market), Richemont, and Patek Philippe – now control over three-quarters of the Swiss replica watch industry’s sales. LVMH occupies the fifth position with a market share just under 6%. The landscape is increasingly defined by the overwhelming strength of the very few at the pinnacle, while others navigate a much tougher environment.





























