Articles

AI and the Looming Competition for Margin

New technologies, like AI, deliver productivity growth by changing the ratio of inputs to outputs in one of three ways: 1) Reducing input costs (i.e. “Same with less”); 2) Growing outputs with the...

The End of Cheap Capital

As the era of cheap capital comes to an end, executives will need to relearn the discipline of rigorous capital allocation. For nearly two decades, historically low interest rates allowed companies...

Will the Iran War Deliver a Long-Predicted U.S. Recession?

Typically in times of geopolitical turmoil, analysts look to the past for precedents and templates, but history is idiosyncratic, not formulaic. We see this in the post-Covid economic expansion, now...

Research: How the "Accent Penalty" Determines Who Gets Heard

At American firms, accent bias can quietly shape whose ideas gain traction at work by depressing attention and engagement for speakers with nonnative English accents. Drawing on an analysis of 5,000+...

Worth Your Time This Week: Joblessness, Trash Cans, and Chess

Worth Your Time This Week

Life's Work: An Interview with Esther Duflo

The Nobel laureate talks about why she became an economist, how she and her colleagues popularized the use of randomized controlled trials in their field, which tools and interventions have shown...

Why American Management Rules the World

Family Firms Need Professional Management

Could the Middle East Fuel the Solar Industry?

Oil producers could launder their non-renewable resource into cash.

Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Impacts of Trump's Tariffs

President Trumps tariff moves have jolted markets and thrust business leaders into deep uncertainty. Developing a better understanding of tariffs primary and secondary macroeconomic effects, as well...

Navigating the Economy Amid Deliberate Policy Uncertainty

Risks are up, visibility is down, but dont count the U.S. economy out quite yet.

Research: To Retain Employees, Promote Them Before the Job Market Heats Up

A new study analyzed turnover data for over 11,000 managers to explore the relationship between promotions, resignations, and employee loyalty.

Research: The Costs of Circumventing Tariffs

Lessons from the 2018 trade war between the U.S. and China.

How "Finfluencers" Can Create Risk for Your Company

Social media finance influencers, known as influencers,are making investing accessible to more people, especially younger investors. While that seems positive at first glance, its not so simple:...

It's Time to Reimagine Scale

Its conventional wisdom in business that bigger is better, and that being able to scale is an essential element of a companys success. But there is a flaw at the heart of the concept of scaling,...

How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk

In this article, adapted from the forthcoming book Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms, the authors explain how economic analysis works in the real world. They lay out three principles for navigating...

AI Is Making Economists Rethink the Story of Automation

Economists have traditionally believed that new technology lifts all boats. But in the case of AI, some are asking: Will some employees get left behind?

Will Your Nudge Have a Lasting Impact?

Research suggests that the initial impact of this behavioral economics tool can fade over time.

The Finance 2.0 Manifesto

Dear G20, It's confusing. Should you tax bankers' bonuses, or limit their pay? Should you nationalize banks, or let public-private partnerships bid for bad assets? Do markets need morals - or just...

How to Market in a Recession

"Recession is possible." Fed Chairman Bernanke has used the R word in this week's Congressional hearings. That in itself makes a US recession more likely. The proposed $700 billion bailout will apply...

An Open Challenge to Silicon Valley

I haven't been posting a lot lately. Why not? I've been talking to lots of people - about a topic that is perhaps worth discussing here. There's growing awareness of a disturbing incrementalism...

Beyond the Banking Crisis: A Strategy Crisis

Is what's shaking the economic landscape just a simple banking crisis? Or is there - as so many feel, and as the tremors indicate - something more hidden just beneath the surface? Let's begin with a...

How India Should Combat Inflation

Indian inflation has just hit a 3-year high of 7.41%. We can take comfort from the fact that many of our neighbors are faced with 20%; even China has reported an 11-year high of 8.7%. Global trends...

Winning in Turbulence: A Downturn Caution-Be Careful What You Cut

This is post 3 in a series of blog posts from downturn strategist Darrell Rigby and fellow partners at Bain & Company. We will walk you through the tools and strategies you need to survive the...

How to Get People to Seize Opportunities at Work

People dont always make use of opportunities and programs offered to them. Organizations can find ways to improve the take-up rates of products and programs by utilizing concepts from behavioral...

How the Pandemic Rebooted Entrepreneurship in the U.S.

Recent years have seen a boom in business applications. Will it last?

What to Expect from the Global Economy in 2024

The economy is ending 2023 in better shape than expected. Most importantly, inflation is falling in much of the world and some central bankers have signaled likely interest rate cuts in 2024. But...

Managers Need to Relearn How Interest Rates Work

In the United States, short-term interest rates have been near zero for most of the last 15 years. With cost of capital this low, many managers have paid scant attention to the time value of money -...

Research: In Recessions, Employees Avoid Jobs with Startups

Job seekers' risk aversion during downturns makes growth even harder for startups.

What Happens After the U.S. Economy's Soft Landing?

A year ago, a recession was seen as a foregone conclusion - and yet the Fed appears to have successfully lowered inflation without triggering a recession. Many of the negative forecasts followed a...

It's Time to Act on the Jobs Crisis

America is struggling with the worst jobs crisis since the Great Depression with no clear path toward restoring the jobs lost in the Great Recession and no strategy for overcoming three decades of...

CEOs Are Predicting a Mild Recession in the U.S.

They expect a "short and shallow" downturn.

How "Payment Banks" Could Prevent the Next Bank Collapse

Silicon Valley Bank illustrates why payroll shouldn't be stored in an institution vulnerable to bank runs.

Why Firms Are Struggling with the U.S. Economy's Soft Landing

In the middle of 2022, the U.S. economy was overheated, and inflation was reaching new heights. Monetary policymakers responded by aggressively raising interest rates, increasing the risk of a...

Is the Tight Labor Market Due to Fewer Workers - or Fewer Hours Worked?

The labor market remains incredibly tight in the U.S. which usually means fewer people are working. In this case, though, its mostly that workers are choosing to work fewer hours. Specifically,...

The Economic Roots of Your Life Crisis

I know: it's not manly, dignified, or barely mentionable in polite conversation. But here's the thing. Lately, I've been in the middle of a full-blown omg...

Rebooting Prosperity in an Age of Austerity

Welcome to the Age of Austerity. Austerity is, of course, the opposite of prosperity. It's the latest buzzword on everyone's lips. And it's not just about Europe. The vast majority of America has...

Business Should Focus on Sociality, Not Social "Media"

Would anyone care if your business died tomorrow?

The Summer of Our Discontent

Happy Summer! Time for a quick quiz. First, what's your favorite scandal of the year so far? Interest rate rigging, phone hacking, up to 30% of global GDP squirreled away in tax havens, the fiasco in...

America's Economy Is Officially Inside-Out

How is it economically possible for "growth" to rise while prosperity falls?

How to Create Your Reason

In an economy that's going nowhere, having a "why" is more important than ever.

You Have the Power to Choose Prosperity

Our forebears struggled, toiled, fought, and sweated for generations to create a future better, wealthier, stronger than their own. The gifts they handed down - democracy, markets, justice,...

The United States of Charlie Sheen

Forgive me, but I'd like to ask you a possibly colossally stupid question. Is Charlie Sheen - in addition to being a boorish actor - an apt metaphor for the American economy? Now, don't freak out...

Egypt's Revolution: Coming to an Economy Near You

It was a society in stagnation, if not decline. Despite ostensible stability, its people - especially its young people - faced a future bleaker than the dark side of Pluto. For decades, the richest...

Ten Things You're Not Allowed to Say at Davos

Consider me gagged and muffled. I confess: I wrote a long-winded, thoroughly boring, hopelessly cliched critique of Davos this year, like anyone under the age of 35 facing a future bleaker than the...

The Economic Legacy of Ebenezer Scrooge

Consider a contrast between two visions of the festive season - the first, a time for consumption (thoughtless, aggressive, pushy, relentless); the second, a time for what you might call cultivation...

Silicon Valley's Disruption Deficit Disorder

Quick: what would you call a business whose apathetic, listless - and sometimes irate - customers are starting to walk away, whose former blockbuster is becoming today's lower and lower margin...

How to Say "No" to an Economic Frankenfuture

Dear Big Cheeses Who Run the World, We regret to inform that you're fired. We're really, truly sorry about this, but we're going to have to let you go. It's time for you to pursue other opportunities...

The Next Big Thing

What's the next big thing? Is it 3D printing, personal genomics, cleantech, hydrotech, self-driving cars, augmented reality, wearable computing, microcurrencies, big(ger) data, faster drones? And now...

You Don't Need This "Recovery"

What happens when one reaches the limits of a vocabulary? Consider, for a moment, the curious case of the "recovery." 93% of gains so far have flowed to the top 1%. Median incomes in recovery are...