A new parametric model for the assessment and calibration of medium-range ensemble temperature forecasts
Abstract
We present a new method for the assessment and calibration of medium-range ensemble temperature forecasts. The method is based on maximizing the likelihood of a simple parametric model for the temperature distribution, and leads to some new insights into the predictability of uncertainty. Copyright
- Publication:
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Atmospheric Science Letters
- Pub Date:
- April 2004
- DOI:
- arXiv:
- arXiv:physics/0308057
- Bibcode:
- 2004AtScL...5...96J
- Keywords:
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- Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
- E-Print:
- Submitted to ASL