Kejriwal Vs Modi: Fact vs Non-Fact

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Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal recently posed 16 questions to Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. We decided to do a fact check on some of these questions raised by Kejriwal on the Gujarat model of economic development.

 

Agricultural Growth

 How do you claim 11% agriculture growth rate when statistics released by your Government for 2012/13 indicate that it has fallen to 1.18%?

 

It seems that Kejriwal has confused the national figureof 1.8% growth of agriculture with the state growth of the agriculture sector. In fact, agriculture sector growth in Gujarat was actually 11% in 2012-13.

 

According to Gujarat Govt. stats, agricultural output has fallen from Rs 27,815 crore in 2006/07 to Rs 25,908 crore in 2012/13.

 

As far as agricultural output is concerned, during the period 2004-05 to 2011-12(Q), GSDP for agriculture sector, including animal husbandry, has increased from Rs 26,746 crore to Rs 45,085 crore at 2004-05 (constant ) prices.

 

Farmer Suicides

 

Farmers are unhappy and are committing suicide. In recent times, 800 farmers have committed suicide in Gujarat. Why?

 

The following graph shows the number of deaths in Gujarat from the 2010 to 2012:

 

 

Data from National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) shows that farmer suicides have been increasing over the years. It can be seen that the number of suicides was 523 in 2010, and it increased to 578 in 2011 and then declined to 564. Though there has been an increase in farmer suicides, the claim made by Kejriwal of 800 suicides does not match the data of 2012. However since no proper time frame was mentioned in his question to Modi, it is possible that Kejriwal may have quoted an accumulated figure of more than one year.

 

PHCs

 

Primary healthcare centers in many villages are shut. Basic medicines are not available in many district level hospitals. Why?

 

The number of primary healthcare centers (PHCs) has increased from 1,114 in 2010-11 to 1,158 in 2011-12. Even though the Gujarat Government is not part of the centrally-sponsored Jan Aushadi programme, the Government has been investing money in making available free and affordable medicines. The Gujarat Government runs a scheme that provides medical aid for buying medicines to poor families (with an income limit of Rs 12,000) for different diseases. The graph below shows the allocation and the reach of the programme and physical achievement of the scheme from 2010 to 2012:

 

 

It can be seen that even though the Government has been reaching people with the scheme, the number of beneficiaries has been coming down, from 13,170 in 2010-11 to 7,473 in 2012-13.

 

Education

 

There are only three teachers per 600 students. Why is the state of education in Gujarat so poor?

 

Let us look at the pupil-to-teacher (PTR) ratio for different levels of education:

 

 

The claim of 600 students per teacher does not seem true. Data from District Information on School Education (DISE), a division of the Union Human Resources Ministry, shows that the Pupil-Teacher Ratio (defined as total enrolment in schools divided by total teachers) is a teacher for 31 students in primary and upper primary schools. In secondary schools, there is a teacher for 34 students, and similarly there is a teacher for 29 students in higher secondary.

 

Rural Electrification

 

You claim electricity in every village. Your government is sitting on over 4 lakh applications from farmers for electricity connections.

 

 

Gujarat has electrified 90% of its households while 84% of its rural households have electricity.
Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission (GERC), in one of its proceedings, has mentioned that there are more than 3 lakh connections pending for agricultural purposes with the commission.

  • satishkumar111

    Modi multiply his stats with what we gujarartis call Faking Factor – it ranges anywhere from 50% to 1000%. In this case Modi’s faking factor was 99%

  • http://iamamangoman.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/modi-kejriwal/ Gu’an

    Looks like Ambani/Adani money has reached India Spend too!!

    In your very first point supporting Modi on agriculture, the source you gave does not even cover the fiscal year 2012-13 figures which is what Kejriwal quoted! Even if we neglect that fact, your source says (on page-19): “The foodgrains production recorded a decreased of around 8 lakh tonnes in the year 2011-12 compared to the production in the year 2010-11”. The 11% growth between 2000 and 2010 was because of an unusually drought year in 1999/00 which gives a low base to feku’s claims.

    For a more detailed (and up to date until 2012/13) stats, google “Gujarat agricultural production in last five years: Foodgrains growth 3.27 per cent, cotton 2.45 per cent, oilseeds (-) 2.71 per cent” on counterview.

    Also, Modi’s gujarat ranks 15th among large states in government spending on social sector as a share of its total budgetary expenditure. This was stated in the Reserve Bank of India(RBI) report titled “State Finance A study of Budgets of 2012-13-State wise Social Sector Expenditure to Total Expenditure”.

    For a detailed look at Gujarat’s health and education, google and read “Narendra Modi’s turf flops on education, health” that came in yesterday’s ToI.

  • IndiaSpend

    Dear Gu’an, we would hate to lose an admirer like you ! Particularly since you’ve taken the trouble to go through the numbers. And we respect anyone who does that.
    We pride ourselves in being ubiased & non aligned as you would see from earlier Fact Checks we’ve done, including on Gujarat.
    We are checking source data again and will post a response by second half today. Am sure you will understand that source data will not include or reference newspaper reports such as the one you’ve quoted. Do keep the feedback coming !

    Editor

    • http://iamamangoman.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/modi-kejriwal/ Gu’an

      Thanks. Will wait for your response.

      Note that the ToI article I cited data sources for its education and health stats, and perhaps you can do an independent verification of those numbers?

      As for agriculture, the CounterView article I cited includes agri data from 2003/04, and they seem to match with the Socio Ecomic Review report you cited (table on page-24) for the years that have the data. It would be nice if you can pull in data for 2012/13 and cross-check with CounterView’s (and Kejriwal).

      • indiaspend

        Hi Gu’an,

        Thank you once again for your feedback. To clarify on the points that you wanted us to check.

        The source that we have mentioned is from the Socio-Economic Review 2012-13 and is of latest available data source from the Gujarat Govt. The agri-growth of 11 % mentioned in our articles is for the year 2011-12 and not 2012-13. The reason for us earlier mentioning 2012-13 was because the Economic Review is of 2012-13. Please see Table 2.2 on page 9 of the report for the agri growth.

        It is likely that a high growth figure might be on the back of a drought but these factors apply everywhere. Our fact check was on the figure and not the circumstances leading to it. That you will agree is a totally different debate. Moreover, the original question did not provide this context either.

        While Mr Kejriwal has quoted a figure of 1.18 per cent, we have no idea on where he got this number but as per our report, we have said that he could have confused this with the national figure of 1.8 percent growth of agriculture.

        • http://iamamangoman.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/modi-kejriwal/ Gu’an

          Well, yes, I dont agree! Because the table that you mentioned (table 2.2) clearly states that those percentages are sectoral contributions to state GDP, not their annual growth!!

          • ak

            As per ASSOCHAM report the growth is in double digits till 2011-12. (No one denying that).
            And as per the data i have seen the last years growth was less.
            So not only Mr. kejri telling the half truth (the emphasis was on rate not on year), he is distorting it.

            Lets say Gujarat has ONE of the highest growth rate in agriculture (cumulative from 2000) and leave it at that .
            As far kejri goes, let him say what eh wants, after all he doesn’t seem to be well versed in economics and policy gyaan

          • http://iamamangoman.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/modi-kejriwal/ Gu’an

            ASSOCHAM figure of 10.97% for gujarat was for the years 2000/01 to 2009/10 (for the same years Maharashtra’s figure was 10.40%). Modi’s tenure was from 2002 till now. The data I have cited above is for this period of Modi, which clearly shows a different picture. So, years are as important as percentages themselves. If the growth was high during earlier years of Modi and has declined in latter years, it only further exposes Modi false hypes. Sure, gujarat is one among many fast developing states and it has been that way since late 1980s. We are here to discuss what exactly are Modi’s contributions.

          • ak

            No. Years are important (and thats why Kejri dint elaborate).
            2 things are important. The growth rate.If someone say it was larger at the initial (which it was during modi govt), people would say it was because of draught, and baseline dipped.
            second point is absolute growth. if i say it kept on increasing (no dip), people would say what about the rates every year.
            Both have to be seen together. Sustaining growth is also a commendable job (whereas many parts of India growth dipped) ..lets not talk about Maha, because the failure of Maha in agricultural reform is well known.
            Abut Modi’s contribution, for that may be you should see the number of orjects started by state, commendable work done by them. Even UN, Planning Commission, Central govt lauded that.
            Now even after all these you want to look other way, then may be you would be more happy else where
            By the way recently a study by AAP’s economic panel member Laveesh Bhandari put gujarat on top in terms of economic freedom

          • http://iamamangoman.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/modi-kejriwal/ Gu’an

            There is a lot of sermonizing in your comment, but no hard data. State your point in brief, with figures (and citations) to back it up. As for growth declining, the agriculture output figures that I cited above shows negative growth too. Of course, it needs to be seen in comparison to other states, but the double-digit hype can safely be struck off from Modi’s propaganda.

            For my views on that economic freedom index, see here: disq .us /8hnj6x (remove space)

          • ak

            Well my data points are same as ASSOCHAM, and my conclusion are same as ASSOCHAM. There is nothing more added to it (or removed from it).
            Political posturing often doesn’t tell you the full truth.The double digit is a fact and no 1 can strike it off (for that period). Even if you include the latest figure Gujarat would be well placed (easy to calculate).
            As for YoY agricultural growth:- let be pragmatic, YoY figure doesn’t do justice to economic indicators like this. One has to do it over 3Y-5Y-10Y. Also putting drought year as a final year in Prof Dholakia’s papers is akin to skewing the results (which to be honest even i have done in my student years). So we need to separate them out
            Hopefully i will publish mine pretty soon

            Obviously Modi will hype his achievements (thats what politics is all about), the same is the case for opposition like Kejri (who would skew the facts as it suits him)

            As far as economic freedom index goes,i find your argument is actually FOR the state.Systematic barrier anyways are more of a scio-economic indicators which are more affected by central policies around it.If it was not part of the study, then why discredit whatever they have studied.

          • manu

            Please quote your sources for the Maharastra’s agricuotural growth. Thanks

          • http://iamamangoman.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/modi-kejriwal/ Gu’an

            That same ASSOCHAM report.

  • Whats in a name

    Good work team. For a better understanding of the figures I think a National Average for each fact should also be mentioned so that along with a fact check we can also get an idea of how is the performance of the state.

  • Mandya

    Article says 16 questions….but validates only 6. Author must come clean that there was no selection bias in choosing questions.

  • Amit Kumar Singh

    Bar chart revealing Education statistics is not factually correct.
    It should be for 10-11: 32, 11-12: 30, 12-13: 28 (Primary Education, Cross-checked only for this.)