Super scientific poll for tonight 7p ET:
Should Tik Tok be banned?
If you comment, we may show some ..
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Brian Sullivan
@SullyCNBC
CNBC Anchor of “Last Call” (7p ET). Data driven. America over political parties. Hokie & semi-retired car racer. Instagram: briansullivan
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Tough outlook on consumer confidence. Expectations index fell again. Inflation super sticky.
And student loan payments kick back in this summer for millions of borrowers after pandemic deferrals. Average monthly payment about $390.
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Thankfully we have great roads, free healthcare and low cost college to show for all the spending!
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Lower treasury yields ahead!!
The U.S. is not yet experiencing a Minsky moment but certainly our economy is characterized by Minsky’s “Ponzi finance” where existing debt requires more credit just to pay for interest on that debt. 1/2
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So cool to hear Hokie love all the way out in Seattle. Congrats to on Final Four! I may have to hit Dallas!
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Get ready for long delays at NYC and DC airports this summer. That’s the FAA warning, not ours.
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No doubt the first of many such pieces. Learning loss and mental health pain may never be made up for millions of kids. Many who were already underserved before.
And many decision makers now were adults in the deadly ‘67-69 pandemic.
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New UAW head promises to get "more aggressive" with automakers.
As would I in his shoes ... with EV's bleeding money but billions in tax credits available, now is the time to flex.
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Huge EV tax incentives will be huge win for politically important Michigan and do a lot to keep the EV market alive while they figure out how to profitably sell an electric car.
Start a clean energy fund, kids!
PS about to go test drive a Rivian. No joke.
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Though Goldman estimates the climate spending plan will cut down on carbon emissions (at cost of $52/ton for carbon, about average)
It will also require a mining. A *lot* of mining and smelting (aluminum).
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Goldman ests. most of the $$ will go to renewable and electrification push .. with 30% to 'green molecules' (carbon capture etc).
Notes structural decline in oil & gas demand in U.S. toward end of decade, with gas holding up better.
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Going through the Goldman report now on the Inflation Reduction Act. 83 pages long.
A few key takeaways:
Their estimate of cost to taxpayer is 3x what the CBO scored it at (Goldman is +$1 trillion).
BUT .. they add the multiplier could generate perhaps $3t in investment.
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Let’s hope. Goldman estimates the IRA will ultimately cost ~$1 trillion but could drive ~$3 trillion in investments.
Hopefully much of that will ultimately trickle down to jobs (and taxpayers).
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Replying to @SullyCNBC
Positive ROI though. Compared to most government spending which is zero
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Using tax breaks to incentivize specific behavior (even at the trillion dollar level like here) is fine - and common.
And the taxpayer funded subsidies here should help mitigate losses in - and benefit shareholders of - auto, wind and solar companies. twitter.com/cjmcgowne/stat
This Tweet is unavailable.
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Good charts from the European Central Bank on US & Euro jobs & inflation.
US unemployment rate recently back to pre-pandemic levels (millions out of labor force)
Wage pressure in US *may* be easing slightly but not in EU.
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Goldman Sachs can also be wrong, yes. But tend to have some pretty smart people doing tax analysis.
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Replying to @SullyCNBC
Ahhh. The $GS that said Fed NOT hiking or the $GS that said oil $130 by FY 2022, or the $GS that was charged with bribery.
Oh, that $GS.
Conveniently always missing from the news these things.
justice.gov/opa/pr/goldman
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More investment in energy is a good thing. Let’s hope that these hundreds of billions in tax subsidies eventually trickle down to the average American and not just benefit companies and private equity.
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Replying to @SullyCNBC
Sully, tell the people why. Because the tax incentives are uncapped and will also yield in more investments then projected.
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“Giant Corporate Tax Giveaway Act” didn’t have quite the same ring
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Replying to @SullyCNBC
Pros and cons of the IRA, one of the cons is that it is named the IRA, Inflation Reduction no way
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Goldman Sachs report: the Inflation Reduction Act’s green subsidies could cost $1.2 trillion—more than 3X govt projections.
WSJ says the IRA may go down as one of the greatest cons ever on the American taxpayer.
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The "newest" big refinery operating in California was built in ... 1968.
There is one running now that was built in 1896.
So .. yeah
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Those are some INCREDIBLE California energy industry statistics @SullyCNBC !!!
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Big Friday
* on risk Russia attacks offshore oil rigs
* on Fed & the banks
* CA's big oil "big profit" tax
* on why NYC may start taxing your TV to pay for the subways
just over 30 mins out
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And as the article states .. much of CA's gas price woes come down to local stations.
Which is why I worry this new agency .. designed to go after "big oil profits" .. may just end up figuring out it's the local mom & pop gas station owners trying to make a buck where they can
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LA Times today: "the forces driving up gasoline prices remain shrouded in mystery"
LA Times piece a few months ago actually solved the 'mystery'
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That’s crucial question. Local services guy here in NJ lost many of his people to a competitor willing to pay salaries in cash (& prob off books).
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Replying to @SullyCNBC
Thing is Sully I’ve been hearing this from everyone. So where do they all go?? 
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We will. Want to build out a small biz group from around country to highlight local economies. Looking for different industries, geographies and backgrounds. Hit me up if interested in telling your story.
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Replying to @SullyCNBC
So speak out about it on your show.
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Replying to
I have turned away 3 people in the past year that showed up late for interviews. Been ghosted by 2 hires on first day in past 6 months. Crazy!
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Driving home & spoke w/friend looking to fill 3 server spots at high end restaurant in Michigan. Found 3 candidates. One offered position & then vanished. Other two (totally unrelated to each other) both accepted and neither showed up on first day. Pay is competitive.
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7p ET on
* Tik Tok ban talk gains steam
*
* The new big bank scare
* CA's new multimillion dollar agency to go after oil & gas
see u in 30 mins
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Bank stocks tanking again today .. market saying it ain't over (as we said 9 days ago but hey ...)
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A 24 hour “Gong Show” in Washington on bank deposits, doesn’t instill confidence.
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IOr maybe cut the 2nd highest gas tax in America?
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Replying to @rickthemyth and @SullyCNBC
Let me rephrase it for you, they are spending about eight 3-bedroom single family homes worth of cash in California to investigate this. Lol.
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California wants to spend $7 million per year in staffing for a group to analyze if another group is making too much money.
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The Senate Appropriations committee is now hearing Governor Newsom’s proposal to scrutinize and potentially penalize oil refiners when they make too much money off of CA drivers.
Dept. of Finance says total cost of the program is about $7 million for staffing.
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Who knew there was a Chair of "Environmental Quality?" I can't keep track of the number of high ranking government officials anymore.
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This is a big mistake. We are suffering from self-inflicted wounds. statement combined with 25bps puts even more pressure on the non-SIBs.
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Equities appeared to react to this comment from Janet Yellen during Jay Powell's press conference. twitter.com/aduehren/statu…
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As one trader texted me … Yellen just fumbled on the 5 yard line.
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Yellen entered the chat twitter.com/SullyCNBC/stat…
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It wasn’t Powell that really moved stocks. We will explain in tonight’s show.l at 7p ET.
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Replying to @SullyCNBC
? “irrelevant?” So why did the market react to Fed. statements today?
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There may not be one. That's the key point. But I am at the NJ shore often and there is growing opposition and also petitions.
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Replying to @SullyCNBC
What’s the connection with offshore wind farms?? Underwater power cables??
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In the end, the Fed was basically irrelevant to the markets.
I'll take that as a win and maybe we can put them back to bed for a few years.
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Sad. And 14 whales this year. This is causing pushback on offshore wind (even if that is not the proven cause).
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in 15 mins on
* on if the fed has lost control
* on Fox v. Dominion fallout
* #RBI on surprising real estate numbers
* Is it 11 o'clock for Tik Tok?
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