The Japanese market is expected to drop during the Golden Week holiday this week as seat capacity to Thailand plunged by 6%, with hotel operators viewing flight cancellations as having a more severe impact on Thai tourism than high airfares.
Pattaraanong Na Chiangmai, deputy governor for international marketing in Asia and the South Pacific at the Tourism Authority of Thailand, said the Japanese market during the eight-day Golden Week between April 29 and May 6 should reach 27,000 arrivals, down 2% year-on-year, while revenue is expected to rise by 1% to 600 million baht.
She said the decrease is largely driven by reduced seat capacity of around 6% in the two-month period from April to May, compared with February to March.
Tourists from this market are also concerned about economic uncertainty and an unsettled Middle East, as well as rising fuel prices and the baht strengthening against the yen.
Though the outbound market from Japan is expected to rise by 8.5% during this holiday, most travellers are opting for nearby destinations such as South Korea, Taiwan and China, said Ms Pattaraanong.
For Thailand and Vietnam, e‑commerce travel platform KKday reported both countries recorded 1.8-1.9 times growth in tour and activity bookings from Japanese tourists, indicating Vietnam is now a close competitor to Thailand, she said.
In addition to Bangkok, Pattaya, Chiang Mai, Phuket and Samui, Ms Pattaraanong said tourists now seek less-visited destinations such as Si Racha and Bang Saen in Chon Buri for beaches, Phangnga for ecotourism and wellness, and Udon Thani for food and culture.
Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association, said hotels nationwide are expected to face a sharp plunge in occupancy in May as foreign tourists have been affected by flight cancellations, as airlines adjust schedules starting from May.
As airlines have also announced an increase in fuel surcharges to reflect a doubling of Jet A‑1 fuel prices, Mr Thienprasit said price shock would have only a short‑term impact, lasting for about a month.
Based on figures during the Songkran holiday, he said local tourists avoided cross‑regional road trips due to rising petrol prices during that period, but they were able to adapt to the changing situation shortly afterwards.
"We are more concerned about the reduction in seat capacity, as airlines are the most critical part of bringing inbound tourists to Thailand. During Covid-19, we already experienced a sharp drop in arrivals when airlines abruptly grounded their aircraft and could not resume flights as quickly as demand returned," said Mr Thienprasit.
To offset the decrease in arrivals, he said the government should consider reviving the hotel subsidy programme for local tourists during the low season.
Mr Thienprasit said domestic travellers should be encouraged to take more trips within Thailand, while avoiding overseas excursions due to rising travel costs.
