Good Judgment Inc

One month to the next Superforecasting Workshop: 29-30 September, 12:00-2:30 pm EDT. Two hands-on, virtual sessions. The workshop tends to draw analysts and researchers who need their estimates to hold up under scrutiny, strategy and risk teams working on questions with no clean historical base rate, and policy staff with pressing questions. Professional Superforecasters and researchers lead sessions on cognitive debiasing methods, teaming, and framing rigorous questions that support better decision-making. Participants take the Forecasting Aptitude Screening Tool (FAST) before the workshop and receive personalized feedback. Small-group practice sessions allow you to apply new skills in real time. Discounted rates are available for government, NGO, and student attendees.

“A confident yes or no is satisfying in a way that maybe never is, a fact that helps to explain why the media so often turn to hedgehogs who are sure they know what is coming no matter how bad their forecasting records may be.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. #TetlockTuesday #Superforecasting #Superforecasters https://lnkd.in/dj-_W8C

Forecasters who used Good Judgment Open both before and after one of our two-day workshops went from 8% worse than the crowd to 9% better than it. The improvement was measurable, statistically significant, and visible the next day. Part of what changed is how participants handled cognitive biases. Before-and-after psychometric testing of our 2022 workshop participants showed a 37% average reduction in collective bias after training. We teach that debiasing process in two sessions, then have you run it on live questions in small groups. 29-30 September, 12:00-2:30 pm EDT. #Superforecasting

Would you like to put your forecasting skills to the test and contribute to cutting-edge research? Professor Barbara Mellers, a co-founder of the Good Judgment Project, where Superforecasting all began (and where I got my start), is launching a new forecasting study. It starts on Monday, 24 August, and will run over the following week, requiring 2–4 hours of time. Participants will be compensated $36, plus accuracy prizes, and will have early access to the findings. Please help spread the word and and sign up here: https://lnkd.in/gQZV-qtd 

“The problem is that we move too fast from confusion and uncertainty…to a clear and confident conclusion…without spending any time in between.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting https://lnkd.in/gdGRst2U #TetlockTuesday #Superforecasting #GoodJudgment 

Over 15 years and hundreds of questions, Good Judgment's Superforecasters showed a ratio of skill to luck that rivals professional athletes. Their methods came out of a US government-sponsored forecasting tournament, where Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence community analysts working with classified information. Their routine is what we compress into two afternoons of training on 29-30 September, 12:00-2:30 pm EDT. Virtual, capped for small-group work, and taught by Superforecasters and data scientists. You take our aptitude screening before day one and build on your results. Contact us for our government, NGO, and student rate.

“If you aimlessly examine one tree, then another, and another, you will quickly become lost in the forest. A good exploration of the inside view does not involve wandering around, soaking up any and all information and hoping that insight somehow emerges. It is targeted and purposeful: it is an investigation, not an amble.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. https://lnkd.in/gdGRst2U  #TetlockTuesday #Superforecasting #GoodJudgment

Superforecasting the Strait of Hormuz: odds of reopening are low. Superforecasters currently assign a 23% chance that tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels by mid-December. On the one hand, ceasefire proposals, US-UK efforts to protect shipping, and possible agreements involving Iran and Oman could support recovery. On the other, persistent conflict, mines, costly insurance, shipowner caution, and disabled Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking continue to suppress recorded traffic. https://lnkd.in/e68PBbn8

Registration is open for our next Superforecasting Workshop: 29-30 September, 12:00-2:30 pm EDT, all virtual. Two hands-on afternoons with professional Superforecasters and Good Judgment researchers, built around these questions: Who makes a good forecaster? How can decision-makers spot and reduce the impact of cognitive biases? How should a company structure collaboration to improve accuracy? What makes a good forecasting question? You practice in small groups. Bring a question you actually care about getting right. Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.

“Coming up with an outside view, an inside view, and a synthesis of the two isn’t the end. It’s a good beginning. Superforecasters constantly look for other views they can synthesize into their own.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting. https://lnkd.in/gdGRst2U #TetlockTuesday #Superforecasting #GoodJudgment