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Early in my career I was determined to find “my thing”.
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Then, eventually, I found…
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Trey Wheeler shared thisIf you're in Multifamily then you're probably watching Delinquency and Distress. The monthly report from Trepp, Inc. is awesome for keeping a pulse on what's changing in real-time. A few thoughts about the July data: 1/ Multifamily DQ Rates (table 2) are up +154bps YoY, +46bps MoM, and essentially flat QoQ. I don't have access to enough data to predict where it goes from here, but it's clear that Multifamily DQ is elevated on a relative basis and worth watching closely. 2/ From the report: "If loans past their maturity date but current on interest (classified as performing matured balloon) were included, the delinquency rate would register 9.62%, up nine basis points from June. This figure sits 176 basis points above the headline rate of 7.86%." Again, relatively speaking, this trend is rising/increasing. 3/ Also from the report: "The seriously delinquent rate (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, real estate owned (REO), or non-performing matured balloon) increased, rising to 7.57% from 7.16%." Also rising/increasing. (S/O to Lonnie Hendry, CRE, Stephen Buschbom, & team for providing these reports every month!) Now the question on everyone's minds: Will Multifamily cap rates widen further, remain flat, or begin to tighten to end 2026 and into 2027? I'm curious to hear your take, and why? - Trey *** For more content like this, follow me here on LinkedIn at (Trey Wheeler) and sign up for my *free* weekly newsletter called The Multifamily Download to get institutional insights delivered straight to your inbox every week.
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Trey Wheeler shared thisOne year ago I published The Multifamily Download: Edition 033, titled "Return of the Dove, Hidden Demand Risks, and More". Inside of the Hidden Demand Risks section I coined a phrase that has stuck with me ever since: Incentivized demand. At the time, despite "record setting absorption in 1H 2025", I noticed that many properties were increasingly utilizing concessions to generate new leasing traffic, and I realized that this activity was buoying the demand for apartments somewhat artificially. This phenomenon played out and translated to a negative demand shock in 2H 2025 despite record setting absorption demand in 1H 2025, thanks to this incentivized demand that I observed. (Here's the full newsletter: https://lnkd.in/g6wvgEt3) This collection of graphs below from Newmark capture this concept of incentivized demand by looking at concessions across both geographies and asset classes. Two observations that I found interesting: 1/ Concessions at Class-C assets is the highest across all four geographies. My takeaway: Renters and residents in this cohort have the least discretionary income, and therefore are the most sensitive to price changes. And, the rent spread from Class-A to Class-C assets has compressed in many markets, incentivizing residents to "filter" up from C to B, and from B to A. Both put downward pressure on Class-C rents, and result in elevated concessions, lower market rents, or both. 2/ Concessions at Class-A properties in the South region (25.6%) are using concessions nearly 50% more than Class-C properties in the Midwest Region (17.5%). Two takeaways: (a) The Midwest has been a bit of a darling over the last 5 years, thanks to steady demand and minimal new supply. (b) The South is being pummeled with new supply, necessitating remarkable concessions, with 2 of 5 (!!) Class-C properties offering them. What would you add to this list of takeaways? Any surprises that you see or didn't see here? - Trey *** Follow me (Trey Wheeler) for more content like this, and check out my free weekly newsletter (The Multifamily Download) to get my best thinking delivered straight to your inbox every Saturday!
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Trey Wheeler shared thisMeasuring change is helpful, but understanding the rate of change is even more powerful, and this chart does both. Here are 4 fascinating takeaways: 1/ San Francisco had both the greatest change (blue bar) in YoY rent growth, up +10.6% per Newmark AND it had the greatest rate of change (blue dot) with the largest four quarter improvement of any market at +3.6%. 2/ Austin and Denver both saw +2.3% improvement in their four quarter improvement, which bodes well for continued momentum in the back half of the year and beyond. We'll see if this continues in Q3. 3/ There was only one "Southeast/Southwest" market with positive YoY rent growth in West Palm Beach. Every other market in these geographies (light blue bars) had YoY rent growth that was flat or negative. 4/ Every single "Midwest" market had positive YoY rent growth (grey bars), with Columbus essentially flat and Milwaukee (?!) leading the way for the region at number five overall nationally in YoY rent growth. I'll never get tired of seeing data and graphs like these, because there's so much to be observed and learned on a market-by-market basis. Which market(s) stand out to you from this graph? Are you seeing different data than this in any markets? - Trey *** Follow me (Trey Wheeler) for more posts like this, and check out my free data resource library on my website here: treywheeler.co/insights
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Trey Wheeler shared thisToday's "Weekly Listen" in The Multifamily Download is EP#98, "Inside JPMorgan's Big Bet on Rental Housing," from The Rent Roll with Jay Parsons. In it, Jay Parsons sat down with John Hofmann and Karen Purcell of J.P. Morgan to discuss: - Smaller REIT growth - Market-rate vs. affordable - 2026's 2nd-highest debt year - Preservation vs. development - Competition from debt funds - Apartment debt market health - JPMorgan's $750B housing bet - The Vivmark merger, now closed Capital flows drive Real Estate values, so when one of the largest banks in the world puts this kind of money behind rental housing I believe it's worth understanding how they're thinking about it. This episode came out this week, so it's a timely listen. Any interesting trends you're watching unfold? Make the week ahead a great one! - Trey *** Follow me (Trey Wheeler) for more, and join my *free* weekly newsletter The Multifamily Download for institutional insights every week.
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Trey Wheeler shared thisFor Multifamily owners and investors, market selection is far more impactful today than it was five years ago when the rising tide of the market (cheap debt + inflation + rent growth) lifted all ships. And the logic is painfully simple: Markets today with elevated supply have more competition and therefore less opportunity for above trend or outsized rent growth in the near term. It can happen, if demand is remarkably strong, but it's unlikely. This chart is a great example of that dynamic at play. I've shared my "3.0% of stock" litmus test as the threshold for near-term rent growth in today's environment. While it's only a litmus test, this data showing the top 50 markets delivering an average of 3.5% of stock feels about right, especially given that about half of these markets have positive YoY rent growth and half do not. 14 of the 18 markets above the 3.5% supply line also show negative YoY rent growth in this Newmark Q2 2026 Multifamily report, but interestingly, there are 13 markets that have negative YoY rent growth despite below-average supply. Supply-demand almost always come back to balance, but the trick is knowing when, where, and why. So what do I make of this noisy data? I just try to remind myself of one thing: Investing is about balancing today's fundamentals with tomorrow's growth. The best investors maximize both simultaneously. Simple, but not easy. Any markets on this chart surprise you? - Trey p.s. if you enjoy data like this, subscribe to me free weekly newsletter The Multifamily Download below -- the next one goes out tomorrow!
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Trey Wheeler shared thisToday's "Weekly Listen" in The Multifamily Download is CBRE's The Weekly Take. In it, Spencer Levy and Bob Hart discussed: • Workforce housing • Co-GP partnerships • Patience over speed • Discipline in this cycle • Midwest + NY Metro upside • Affordable housing demand • Government subsidy support Hart built TruAmerica Multifamily into one of the largest workforce housing owners in the country, so when he says patience matters more than aggression right now, it's worth listening. This episode just dropped this week, so it's a timely listen as we head into the back half of the year. Where do you see the best workforce housing opportunities arising over the next 6-12 months, and why? Have a great weekend! - Trey *** Follow me (Trey Wheeler) for more, and join my free weekly newsletter (The Multifamily Download) for institutional insights every Saturday.
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Trey Wheeler shared this"What's easy to do is also easy not to do" To me, one of the most under appreciated but immensely valuable qualities in a friendship is the unprompted check-in. Why? Because there's power in knowing that someone, somewhere is thinking about you, and that they care enough to stop their day to let you know by checking in. I'm not perfect at this, none of us are, but I can say without a doubt that this is a pillar of my friendships that I make an immense effort to intentionally maintain. Frankly, I enjoy being the "hey man, thinking about you today, hope you're crushing it! How are things in your world?" text guy, because I know how impactful such a simple message can be amid the inevitable chaos of life. Everybody is going through something. Consider this a reminder to be the friend you desire. Like in an elevator, sometimes we just have to go first. Have a great weekend! ✌ - Trey p.s. the next edition of The Multifamily Download goes out tomorrow morning. Read past editions and sign up (it's free) here: treywheeler.co/archive
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Trey Wheeler shared thisRegardless of sector, the best investors all seem to look for the same core thesis before deploying capital: They look for structural asymmetry. Some examples: • Demand far exceeds supply (data centers) • Consumer prices exceed input costs (software) • Optionality is limited & highly skewed (this graph) As Newmark notes in their recently released Q2 2026 U.S. Multifamily report, the spread between renting and owning is $1,176 per month, which represents 2.7x (!!) the long-term average of $438. Although this gap has decreased YoY for three consecutive quarters, it remains historically elevated and is putting pressure on SFR for-sale demand. In all likelihood, some combination of three things must happen for this gap to compress back to normalcy: 1/ Home Prices Must Fall 2/ Mortgage Rates Must Drop 3/ Real Wages Continue Growing I don't have a view as to which of these three happens first or most dramatically, but historically the SFR for-sale market combination of "rates up, prices up" can only last so long. Obviously, there were other forces at play in the pre-GFC housing bubble (i.e. 100%+ LTV, neg amort, NINJA loans, etc), but the principle above proved true in that home prices cannot remain elevated in a higher interest rate environment unless real wage growth closes the affordability gap relatively quickly. I'm of the belief that, generally speaking, homes are more or less worth what the buyer can afford to pay monthly. Why? Because home buyers don't buy a house based on the price, they buy it based on their monthly payment. This is why home prices rose dramatically when mortgage rates went sub-3% in 2020-2021, because the PITI and resulting DTI justified those higher prices. How will this rent vs own spread look in 12 months? Anything you're watching in the SFR for-sale market? - Trey *** Hey, I'm Trey Wheeler. Follow me for more housing content, and check out my free weekly newsletter The Multifamily Download for institutional insights every Saturday: treywheeler.co
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Trey Wheeler shared thisOur teammates thought we were crazy, and we probably were (but it's not what you think). Here's the story: In college, our practice field was a long walk from the locker room down a steep hill. This meant that after every practice we had to go back up the same steep hill to get back to the locker room. (And no, driving was not allowed). After every practice, Kyle and I took off our cleats, laced up our tennis shoes, and we did something that our teammates thought was crazy: We ran up the hill. Eventually, we stopped asking each other, "So are we running today?", and instead, we'd just look at each other, nod, and start running. This "run the hill" mentality shaped me in more ways that I could have imagined. Here are 3 things that I think about often, even more than a decade later: 1/ Hills of life are inevitable. Sometimes we're coasting down these hills, and sometimes they're staring us in the face and we have a decision to make: Avoid the hill, walk it slowly, or run it tenaciously. The choice that we make in that moment often determines how the next season of life unfolds. 2/ Hills are opportunities. Choosing to embrace the hill staring you in the face is an opportunity. These hills can make us or break us. They can reveal things to us about ourselves that we weren't aware of to begin with. And these hills can forge inside of us a determination and grit that didn't previously exist. Don't miss the opportunity to become an even better version of yourself. 3/ Hills provide perspective. Small or large, steep or gradual, all hills have something to offer. In life, it feels like I've faced every combination of hill. Whether the hill has been small or large, steep or gradual, there's been one thing that's helped me climb them all: Faith + works. Believing God will give me what I need to climb the hill in front of me, and making the choice to do the work required to climb the hill. 2 questions to think about this week: What hill(s) of life are you climbing currently? And if you're walking, could you be running instead? - Trey p.s. as you can tell, I'm trying to share more about myself here on LinkedIn without going full on Instagram. More Multifamily content coming soon, I promise. Thanks for following along!
Trey Wheeler commented on a post
13h
Thanks for having me on the show, Matthew! I really enjoyed our conversation & I hope listeners enjoy it!
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Trey Wheeler liked thisTrey Wheeler liked thisI had a marketing conversation this morning that reminded me why I started STIX. A lot of agencies grow by adding more clients. Then more employees. Then more layers. Eventually, the client relationship starts to look like a ticketing system. “We need 12 social posts.” “Can you change this page?” “Can you send the SEO report?” Everyone is busy doing marketing, but fewer people are asking whether any of it is actually moving the business forward. I don’t want to build that kind of company. I’m intentionally building STIX Marketing Advisors around a limited number of clients where I can stay close enough to actually understand the business, the sales process, the goals, the problems and the numbers. Then I can bring specialists around the business where specialized execution is needed. Paid media. SEO. Content. Web. Whatever the strategy actually calls for. But somebody still has to connect the dots. Somebody has to ask why the cost per lead went up, whether the leads got better, what sales is hearing, whether customers are finding you through Google or LinkedIn or AI or referrals, and whether the thing we’re spending money on is actually helping the company grow. That’s the part of marketing I love. And the more conversations I have with business owners and marketing leaders, the more convinced I am that being deeply involved with fewer companies is exactly how I want to build this.
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Trey Wheeler liked thisTrey Wheeler liked thisJUST SOLD | CBRE is proud to announce the sale of Cyan PDX, a trophy high-rise in the heart of Portland's Central Business District. Completed in 2009, this LEED Gold-certified community features 352 units with high-end luxury finishes. Just one block from Portland State University and steps from some of the city's best dining, breweries, and retail, Cyan PDX stands as one of the city's most iconic residential communities. This closing is a testament to the enduring appeal of Downtown Portland and the continued investor confidence in high-quality, well-located urban assets. We are thrilled to have worked with the buyer and seller on this landmark transaction and look forward to seeing the new owner carry on Cyan's legacy as one of Portland's premier residential communities. Find your next opportunity: https://lnkd.in/gjnJZWW Joe Nydahl Henry Lilly Bonnie Brown Patty Schaffer Matt Dodd Sam Lawhead #justsold #multifamily #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Portland #HighRise #CBREPNW #CBRE
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Trey Wheeler liked thisTrey Wheeler liked thisAre the the top multifamily markets of 2021 on the upswing, or is a correction on the way? Trey Wheeler shares his outlook and insights on high supply markets on the latest episode of The Multifamily Dispatch: https://lnkd.in/gYxp3Gbv
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Trey Wheeler liked thisTrey Wheeler was an excellent guest on the latest episode of The Multifamily Dispatch, sharing his take on the trends worth following in the multifamily market: https://lnkd.in/gNvyQfixTrey Wheeler liked thisAre the the top multifamily markets of 2021 on the upswing, or is a correction on the way? Trey Wheeler shares his outlook and insights on high supply markets on the latest episode of The Multifamily Dispatch: https://lnkd.in/gYxp3Gbv
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Trey Wheeler liked thisIf you're in Multifamily then you're probably watching Delinquency and Distress. The monthly report from Trepp, Inc. is awesome for keeping a pulse on what's changing in real-time. A few thoughts about the July data: 1/ Multifamily DQ Rates (table 2) are up +154bps YoY, +46bps MoM, and essentially flat QoQ. I don't have access to enough data to predict where it goes from here, but it's clear that Multifamily DQ is elevated on a relative basis and worth watching closely. 2/ From the report: "If loans past their maturity date but current on interest (classified as performing matured balloon) were included, the delinquency rate would register 9.62%, up nine basis points from June. This figure sits 176 basis points above the headline rate of 7.86%." Again, relatively speaking, this trend is rising/increasing. 3/ Also from the report: "The seriously delinquent rate (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, real estate owned (REO), or non-performing matured balloon) increased, rising to 7.57% from 7.16%." Also rising/increasing. (S/O to Lonnie Hendry, CRE, Stephen Buschbom, & team for providing these reports every month!) Now the question on everyone's minds: Will Multifamily cap rates widen further, remain flat, or begin to tighten to end 2026 and into 2027? I'm curious to hear your take, and why? - Trey *** For more content like this, follow me here on LinkedIn at (Trey Wheeler) and sign up for my *free* weekly newsletter called The Multifamily Download to get institutional insights delivered straight to your inbox every week.
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