Karina gained Category 1 hurricane status early Sunday with top sustained winds of 80 mph and then took mere hours to jump up to a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

A major hurricane is a Category 3 or greater with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Meteorologists said some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or so.

On Sunday, Karina was located about 960 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula and was moving west at 9 mph. It was on a forecast path expected to take it farther out into the Pacific.

While Karina was expected to stay well away from land, swells from the storm were likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along stretches of coastline in southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula, the hurricane center said. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Lowell was about 985 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and posed no immediate threat to land. Forecasters said Sunday that Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday.

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The possibility the island could witness its first direct hit from a hurricane in 155 years faded as the eye of the storm passed the island’s southern tip. Landfall is not expected at this point, said National Weather Service meteorologist Joseph Clark.

However, hurricane-force winds are expected to continue into the overnight hours, with the strongest wind gusts likely in areas of higher terrain, the National Hurricane Center said. Heavy rainfall into Sunday could produce flooding and mudslides, while powerful waves pound the coast, the agency said.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Oahu, Kauai and Niihau as the storm moves west. The Big Island is the state’s largest, with a population of about 210,000.

Whitecap surf slammed ashore nonstop, howling winds whipped the tops of palm trees and waterways swelled with fast-moving runoff from relentless rain that blew nearly sideways.

Gov. Josh Green said at least one person died in a car accident in the South Point area of the Big Island, while 19 roofs were lost and 190 flights were postponed. “You definitely want to be home, do not be out on the roads,” he said.

Forecasters said higher elevations on the island, dominated by the towering Mauna Kea volcano, could get as much as 25 inches of rain. That could cause life-threatening mudslides in a mountainous area where people live off the grid in improvised housing.

Earlier the governor called it an “enormous storm,” capable of destructive flooding and even the possibility of wildfires kicked up by strong winds across the island chain.

Tens of thousands of homes were without power.

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Residents prepare for the worst

Bobby Camara, a 75-year-old lifelong resident, said he planned to “hunker down, cross my fingers, hope the lights don’t go out” at a care home just outside Hilo. He said gas stations were busy as people sought fuel for chain saws and vehicles.

“I think stocking up is part of life over here. … You learn to be self-reliant,” Camara said.

Mike Caputo, who lives in Keaau, near the Big Island’s east coast, said his power generator was ready and a 10,000-gallon home water tank was full. He said the main concern was flash flooding and fallen trees, especially albizia, a common tree.

“They’re not very sturdy, but they grow extremely large,” said Caputo, 50, a local fire captain. “They can make roads impassable.”

Warnings posted everywhere

Lala intensified from a tropical storm into a hurricane early Saturday as its maximum sustained winds increased to 75 mph, the hurricane center reported, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The Big Island is Hawaii’s largest and has a population of about 210,000.

A hurricane last made landfall on the islands in 1992, when Hurricane Iniki — a Category 4 storm — lashed Kauai.

“It did $3 billion worth of damage. It destroyed thousands of homes, and it did kill six people,” said Green, the governor. “We just can never know if a storm is going to turn.”

The Big Island was last hit directly in 1871, when a Category 3 hurricane hit the northeast corner, according to research by a University of Hawaii atmospheric scientist.

On Saturday, shelters were opened, events were canceled and ranchers were urged to leave their cattle in pastures, rather than structures that might collapse.

Christine Matsuda, who lives in Waimea, on the northern side of the island, said “big gusts every few minutes rattle the whole house.”

“We’re finding unexpected leaks in places that don’t see water under normal conditions,” Matsuda said.

The hurricane center predicted 8 to 12 inches of total rainfall across Maui and the lower elevations of the Big Island, and 4 to 6 inches across the island chain.

Many Hawaii residents are still dealing with the aftermath of devastating floods in March.

___

Associated Press writer Jennifer Sinco Kelleher in Honolulu contributed.

The National Hurricane Center said Lala’s maximum sustained winds increased to 75 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The storm’s center was forecast to move over or near the island’s southern end by the evening, lashing its worst winds at volcanic slopes thousands of feet above sea level.

Whitecap surf slammed ashore nonstop, howling winds whipped the tops of palm trees, and waterways swelled with fast-moving runoff from relentless rain that blew nearly sideways.

Gov. Josh Green, noting rainfall of 2 inches an hour, said “people should be sheltering in place now.”

Forecasters said higher elevations on the island, dominated by the towering Mauna Kea volcano, could get as much as 25 inches of rain. That could cause life-threatening mudslides in a mountainous area where people live off the grid in improvised housing.

Earlier the governor called it an “enormous storm,” capable of destructive flooding and even the possibility of wildfires kicked up by strong winds across the island chain. Electricity was knocked out for 32% of customers on the Big Island, according to poweroutage.us.

The island, population 210,000, is Hawaii’s largest.

Residents prepare for the worst

Bobby Camara, a 75-year-old lifelong resident, said he planned to “hunker down, cross my fingers, hope the lights don’t go out” at a care home just outside Hilo. He said gas stations were busy as people sought fuel for chain saws and vehicles.

“I think stocking up is part of life over here. … You learn to be self-reliant,” Camara said.

Mike Caputo, who lives in Keaau, near the Big Island’s east coast, said his power generator was ready and a 10,000-gallon (37.8 kiloliter) home water tank was full. He said the main concern was flash flooding and fallen trees, especially albizia, a common tree.

“They’re not very sturdy, but they grow extremely large,” said Caputo, 50, a local fire captain. “They can make roads impassable.”

Warnings posted everywhere

The Big Island was under a hurricane warning, and tropical storm warnings were issued for the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe, Oahu, Kauai and Niihau.

A Category 3 hurricane hit the northeast corner of the Big Island in 1871, according to research by a University of Hawaii atmospheric scientist. The latest forecast has Lala striking “very close to the southern tip of the Big Island,” said Vanessa Almanza, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Honolulu.

Shelters were opened, events were canceled and ranchers were urged to leave their cattle in pastures, rather than structures that might collapse. “It doesn’t take landfall to create destruction,” Almanza said.

Indeed, Christine Matsuda, who lives in Waimea, on the northern side of the island, said “big gusts every few minutes rattle the whole house.”

“We’re finding unexpected leaks in places that don’t see water under normal conditions,” Matsuda said.

The hurricane center predicted 8 to 12 inches of total rainfall across Maui and the lower elevations of the Big Island, and 4 to 6 inches across the island chain. Many Hawaii residents are still dealing with the aftermath of devastating floods in March.

Wildfire risks increase during windy weather

As winds ramped up across the islands, Almanza said dry and breezy conditions outside the storm would elevate fire concerns.

In 2023 the Maui town of Lahaina burned during extreme winds as a hurricane passed far to the south.

“Since the fire, everybody is way more aware of weather in general and our environment and things that are happening,” said Archie Kalepa of Lahaina, who is known in the area for his surfing, paddling and other ocean skills.

Kauai, which is several islands northwest up the archipelago from the Big Island, is where Hurricane Iniki made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in 1992 — an El Nino year like this one, when a warming of the Pacific near the equator increases Pacific hurricane activity and affects weather patterns across the globe.

“It did $3 billion worth of damage. It destroyed thousands of homes, and it did kill six people,” said Green, the governor. “We just can never know if a storm is going to turn.”

___

Associated Press writer Jennifer Sinco Kelleher in Honolulu contributed.

The storm is forecast to bring rain to the Hawaiian Islands starting late Friday as well as high winds and dangerous surf, the National Hurricane Center said.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Hawaii County and a tropical storm watch is in place for Maui County including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, forecasters said.

Lala was about 530 miles (855 kilometers) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and about 740 miles (1,195 kilometers) east-southeast of Honolulu with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kph) while moving west-northwest, the Miami-based center said.

Lala is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches the Big Island. It’s expected to be near the island Saturday. A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected, and it is typically issued 36 hours before potential tropical-storm-force winds.

The system could bring rainfall totals of 8 inches to a foot (up to about 30 centimeters) across Maui and the Big Island, with as much as 25 inches (nearly 64 centimeters) possible across the Big Island, forecasters said. That could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, the center said.

Also in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Hernan formed Thursday but wasn’t threatening land and was weakening while moving south.

Hernan was about 1,495 miles (2,405 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico with maximum sustained winds around 40 mph (65 kph), the center said.

In the Atlantic Ocean, former Tropical Storm Cristobal weakened and degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday, the center said. It was about 500 miles (805 kilometers) west of the Azores and didn’t threaten land.

Melissa left over 70% of Jamaica without power, Jamaican Telecommunications and Transportation Minister Daryl Vaz said at a news conference Thursday.

At least 82 roads on the island were closed as of Thursday morning, said Robert Morgan, the country’s infrastructure minister.

“A large percentage of the Jamaican public service facilities are lying on the road,” Morgan said. “The contractors cannot touch those power lines without the Jamaica public service company saying to us it is safe for us to do so.”

These are just some of the scenes of devastation Jamaica woke up to Thursday morning, 48 hours after Hurricane Melissa raged through the island nation as the most powerful storm in its history and one of the most potent ever recorded anywhere. The United Nations said the damage was on a level “never seen before.”

All three international airports in Jamaica have reopened, Vaz announced Thursday.

Cuba is also calculating the cost after the storm collapsed houses and blocked roads, with some 735,000 people spending the night in shelters, and the full extent of the damage is still unclear.

The monster storm had winds of up to 185 mph and killed at least nine people in Jamaica and 27 more across the Caribbean this week.

The storm was making its way to Bermuda on Thursday afternoon, where conditions will “rapidly deteriorate,” according to the NHC’s 2 p.m. update. The storm has greatly weakened to about 105 mph, making it a still-dangerous Category 2 storm capable of inflicting major damage. Melissa may bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over parts of Hispaniola and is expected to bring 1 inch of rain to Bermuda on Thursday.

By Saturday, the storm will have lost its tropical characteristics — and its name — and become a strong post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic, making a beeline for St. John’s.

But for Jamaica and Cuba, the task of providing aid to affected communities and rebuilding starts now.

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Hurricane Melissa leaves trail of destruction across Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa Oct 29, 2025

How to help those impacted by Hurricane Melissa

The urgent humanitarian challenge has prompted immediate responses from countries around the world and nongovernmental organizations alike after more than 400,000 people in Jamaica were directly impacted.

The State Department said it was sending a regional disaster assistance response team (DART) to the region, along with U.S.-based urban search-and-rescue teams.

However, one former and two current U.S. officials told NBC News on Wednesday that the response was delayed due to the government shutdown and the elimination of USAID. Previously, the DART team would have already been on the ground in Jamaica, the sources said, but instead missed the opportunity to travel ahead of the storm.

The U.S. nonprofit Project Dynamo is sending more than 3,000 pounds of essential aid to Jamaica in multiple aircraft, including water purification kits and medical supplies, under Operation Cool Runnings, a reference to the cult 1993 movie.

The U.N. World Food Program plans to deliver 2,000 emergency food boxes from Barbados as soon as flights resume to Jamaica, enough to feed about 6,000 people a week. “This is a terrible tragedy and there is a real sense of urgency here on the ground,” Brian Bogart, WFP director for the Caribbean, told the U.N.’s news service.

The American Red Cross said it was operating ambulances across Jamaica on Thursday, responding to emergencies in shelters and taking people to hospitals.

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness was in the hard-hit community of St. James on Wednesday, posting video of homes inundated with water and mud.

“Despite the difficulties, the Jamaican spirit shines through as a strong reminder we are a resilient nation with the capacity to triumph over adversity,” he said.

Video posted on X on Wednesday shows the streets of Santa Cruz, Jamaica, completely covered in mud.

In Montego Bay, Jamaica, a video posted on social media shows swaths of trees and power lines down. The city’s airport sustained what appears to be significant damage, according to the video on social media, with water pouring from the roof of a terminal.

U.N. Resident Coordinator Dennis Zulu told a news conference that Jamaica’s recovery would take at least months.

“I don’t think there’s any single soul on this island that was not affected by Hurricane Melissa, ” he said.

Jamaica is accepting donations to its official Hurricane Melissa Relief fund.

Flights to Caribbean nations have been suspended for the past several days. American Airlines said in a statement that it would resume flights in Kingston, Jamaica; Holguin, Cuba; and Providenciales, Turks and Caicos on Thursday. The airline added that it is assessing damage at several other airports, including in Ocho Rios, Jamaica; Montego Bay, Jamaica; and Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.

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While the full extent of the damage was not yet clear, relief organizations are already mobilizing to help across the northern Caribbean.

Here are some ways to support people impacted by Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and beyond. Follow the links to learn more about the organizations and how to donate.

As always, experts recommend making sure a charity is legitimate before you donate and choosing groups that are well-established. You can find information about them on GuideStar and Charity Navigator.

United Way of Jamaica: The 40-year-old nonprofit has a history of supporting Jamaicans after disasters. The Kingston-based group accepts cash donations.

American Friends of Jamaica: The organization’s Disaster Relief Fund provides emergency aid and recovery support across Jamaica.

CORE: The organization’s local staff is already responding in Haiti and will arrive in Jamaica when airports reopen to deliver relief items like hygiene kits and tarps, conduct medical assessments, and distribute immediate cash assistance. The group, which was active in Jamaica after Hurricane Beryl in 2024, will also help households remove debris and rebuild homes. The Los Angeles-based nonprofit is accepting cash donations to its Emergency Response Fund.

Footprint Project: The solar-energy nonprofit supplies communities and first responders with temporary power equipment to aid their response and restore communications. The New Orleans-based group is accepting cash donations to support staffing and logistics, as well as in-kind donations of “turn-key” renewable power technologies that can be rapidly shipped. Equipment donations can be coordinated through give@footprintproject.org.

Airlink: Airlink works with major airlines like United and American, using their underbelly cargo space to move critical aid to disaster zones. It is moving cargo to Jamaica on behalf of 16 NGOs, including World Food Programme and Mercy Corps. It will also charter at least two planes to move more goods for its partners, free of charge. The Washington, D.C.-based group accepts cash donations and donations of United frequent flyer miles.

Direct Relief: The humanitarian organization will support health facilities in impacted areas with medicines and other supplies. The group also sent 100 field-medic packs for Jamaica’s National Health Fund, and is working with the Pan American Health Organization to preposition supplies for Cuba.

Good360: The group connects corporate donors who have surplus, high-quality supplies with nonprofits that need those items. Good360 is accepting cash donations to support delivery of these supplies.

The American Red Cross: The organization coordinates with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies to provide essential services like shelter, food, water and safe transfers to medical facilities. The American Red Cross Restoring Family Links program helps reconnect families separated by international crises such as conflict, disaster or migration. You can also sign up to volunteer here.

World Central Kitchen: WCK’s relief team is in Jamaica working with local partners to serve meals to families impacted by the storm. You can donate here.

Save the Children: The organization is on the ground in the Dominican Republic and Haiti providing clean water, food, hygiene kits as well as medical care and emergency shelter for children and their families. Save the Children is not responding in Jamaica at this time.

Project HOPE: The organization’s emergency response team is on the ground in Jamaica to provide shelter items for displaced communities, medical supplies, water, sanitation, hygiene needs and mental health support in the most affected communities. 

Mercy Corps: Teams in Jamaica, Haiti and the Dominican Republic will provide clean water, food, solar power, and emergency supplies to help families cope and recover from the storm.

Global Empowerment Mission: GEM BStrong supports disaster areas with non-perishables and other supplies like shoes, clothing, soap, toothbrushes, electrolyte packets and other hygiene items. The group also helps with repairs to damaged homes and evacuating the needy to seek care in other countries. You can also help by donating supplies through their Amazon Wishlist.

A landslide blocked the main roads of Santa Cruz in Jamaica’s St. Elizabeth parish, where the streets were reduced to mud pits. Residents swept water from homes as they tried to salvage belongings. Wind ripped off part of the roof at a high school that serves as a public shelter.

“I never see anything like this before in all my years living here,” resident Jennifer Small said.

The extent of the damage from the deadly hurricane was unclear Wednesday as widespread power outages and dangerous conditions persisted in the region.

“It is too early for us to say definitively,” said Dana Morris Dixon, Jamaica’s education minister.

Melissa made landfall Tuesday in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 185 mph, one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, before weakening and moving on to Cuba, but even countries outside the direct path of the massive storm felt its devastating effects.

At least 25 people have died across Haiti and 18 are missing, Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency said in a statement Wednesday. Twenty of those reported dead and 10 of the missing are from a southern coastal town where flooding collapsed dozens of homes. At least eight are dead in Jamaica.

In Cuba, officials reported collapsed houses, blocked mountain roads and roofs blown off buildings Wednesday, with the heaviest destruction concentrated in the southwest and northwest. Authorities said about 735,000 people remained in shelters.

“That was hell. All night long, it was terrible,” said Reinaldo Charon in Santiago de Cuba. The 52-year-old was one of the few people venturing out Wednesday, covered by a plastic sheet in the intermittent rain.

Melissa was a Category 2 storm with top sustained winds near 105 mph (165 kph) early Thursday and was moving north-northeast at 21 mph (33 kph) according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The hurricane was centered about 215 miles (345 kilometers) northeast of the central Bahamas and about 685 miles (1,105 kilometers) southwest of Bermuda.

Melissa was forecast to pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and may strengthen further before weakening Friday.

Jamaica rushes to assess the damage

In Jamaica, more than 25,000 people were packed into shelters Wednesday after the storm ripped roofs off their homes and left them temporarily homeless. Dixon said 77% of the island was without power.

The outages complicated assessing the damage because of “a total communication blackout” in areas, Richard Thompson, acting director general of Jamaica’s Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management, told the Nationwide News Network radio station.

“Recovery will take time, but the government is fully mobilized,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a statement. “Relief supplies are being prepared, and we are doing everything possible to restore normalcy quickly.”

Officials in Black River, Jamaica, a southwestern coastal town of approximately 5,000 people, pleaded for aid at a news conference Wednesday.

“Catastrophic is a mild term based on what we are observing,” Mayor Richard Solomon said.

Solomon said the local rescue infrastructure had been demolished by the storm. The hospital, police units and emergency services were inundated by floods and unable to conduct emergency operations.

Jamaican Transportation Minister Daryl Vaz said two of the island’s airports will reopen Wednesday to relief flights only, with U.N. agencies and dozens of nonprofits on standby to distribute basic goods.

“The devastation is enormous,” he said. “We need all hands on deck to recover stronger and to help those in need at this time.”

The United States is sending rescue and response teams to assist in recovery efforts in the Caribbean, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on X.

St. Elizabeth Police Superintendent Coleridge Minto told Nationwide News Network on Wednesday that authorities have found at least four bodies in southwest Jamaica. One death was reported in the west when a tree fell on a baby, state minister Abka Fitz-Henley told Nationwide News Network.

Before landfall, Melissa had already been blamed for three deaths in Jamaica, three in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic.

Melissa devastates Haitian town

Hurricane Melissa damaged more than 160 homes and destroyed 80 others in the town of Petit-Goâve, where 10 of the 20 people killed there were children, Haiti’s Civil Protection Agency said Wednesday.

Lawyer Charly Saint-Vil, 30, said he saw bodies lying among the debris after the storm as he walked the streets of the small coastal town where he grew up. People screamed as they searched for their missing children, he said.

“People have lost everything,” Saint-Vil said.

Although the immediate threat of the storm has passed, Saint-Vil said Petit-Goâve’s residents were living in fear about access to medicine, water and food in the coming days given the political instability in Haiti.

“We don’t know what will happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow,” he said.

For now, neighbors are helping one another source necessities and find places to sleep. Saint-Vil is hosting a number of friends who lost their homes in his small apartment.

“What I can do, I will do it, but it’s not easy because the situation is really complicated for everyone,” he said.

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Cuba rides out the storm

People in the eastern Cuban province of Santiago de Cuba began clearing debris around the collapsed walls of their homes Wednesday after Melissa made landfall in the region hours earlier.

“Life is what matters,” Alexis Ramos, a 54-year-old fisherman, said as he surveyed his destroyed home and shielded himself from the intermittent rain with a yellow raincoat. “Repairing this costs money, a lot of money.”

Local media showed images of the Juan Bruno Zayas Clinical Hospital with severe damage: glass scattered across the floor, waiting rooms in ruins and masonry walls crumpled on the ground.

“As soon as conditions allow, we will begin the recovery. We are ready,” President Miguel Díaz-Canel wrote on X.

The hurricane could worsen Cuba’s severe economic crisis, which already has led to prolonged power blackouts along with fuel and food shortages.

Cuba’s National Institute of Hydraulic Resources reported accumulated rainfall of 15 inches (38 centimeters) in Charco Redondo and 14 inches in Las Villas Reservoir.

Wednesday evening, Melissa had top sustained winds of 90 mph and was moving northeast at 16 mph according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami. The hurricane was centered about 80 miles southeast of the central Bahamas.

Authorities in the Bahamas were evacuating dozens of people from the archipelago’s southeast corner ahead of Melissa’s arrival.

Melissa’s center is forecast to move through southeastern Bahamas later Wednesday, generating up to 7 feet of storm surge in the area. By late Thursday, Melissa is expected to pass just west of Bermuda.

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Authorities in Cuba evacuated more than 735,000 people, Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel said on X. Forecasters said the Category 3 storm would unleash catastrophic damage in Santiago de Cuba and nearby areas.

Early Wednesday, Melissa had top sustained winds of 115 mph (185 kph) and was moving northeast at 12 mph (19 kph) according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The hurricane was about 60 miles (95 kilometers) west of Guantánamo, Cuba and 230 miles (370 kilometers) south of the Central Bahamas.

Extensive damage was reported in parts of southern and southwestern Jamaica, including four damaged hospitals and more than half a million customers without power.

Melissa was then forecast to move toward the Bahamas and near Bermuda.

Here is what to know about the storm:

A record storm for Jamaica

Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane, the highest level, when it made landfall Tuesday in Jamaica. It was the strongest to hit the island since recordkeeping began 174 years ago. Melissa caused power outages, fallen trees, landslides, and heavy flooding and tore off roofs in Jamaica.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center warned earlier that the situation was “extremely dangerous” and urged Jamaican residents to remain sheltered until the life-threatening conditions pass.

Hurricane Melissa’s 185 mph (295 kph) winds and 892 millibars of central pressure tied two records for the strongest Atlantic storm on landfall. The pressure — the key measurement meteorologists use — tied 1935’s Labor Day hurricane in Florida, while wind speed tied a 1935 hurricane and 2019’s Hurricane Dorian, said hurricane scientists Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University and Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami.

U.N. agencies and dozens of nonprofits had food, medicine and other essential supplies prepositioned as they awaited a distribution rush after the storm.

Other Caribbean nations at risk

The NHC warned that catastrophic flash flooding and landslides also are possible in Cuba and Hispaniola, the island which Haiti and the Dominican Republic share.

Cuban officials said they were evacuating more than 700,000 people from the region, including in Santiago, the island’s second-largest city.

The storm was expected to generate a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) in the region and drop up to 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain in parts of eastern Cuba.

The NHC warned of 5 to 10 inches (13 to 26 centimeters) of rainfall with the potential for flash flooding in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional rainfall is expected in southern Hispaniola through Wednesday.

Rapid strengthening linked to climate change

Melissa reached tropical storm status last Tuesday and then became a hurricane on Saturday. Melissa then rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane early Monday morning.

Climate scientists have linked warming ocean temperatures to hurricanes intensifying more quickly. Abnormally warm ocean waters of about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal helped double Hurricane Melissa’s wind speed in less than 24 hours, scientists said.

Rapid intensification occurs when the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone increase by at least 30 knots or 35 mph (56 kph). Warmer temperatures also give hurricanes fuel to unleash more rain.

Scientists said Melissa is the fourth storm in the Atlantic this year to undergo rapid intensification.

Storms that ramp up so quickly complicate forecasting and make it harder for government agencies and nonprofits to plan for emergencies.

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Hurricane Melissa is currently a Category 5 storm, the highest category, with sustained wind speeds of over 157 mph. Melissa is forecast to make landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday before crossing Cuba and the Bahamas through Wednesday.

Scientists said this is the fourth storm in the Atlantic this year to undergo rapid intensification of its wind speed and power.

“That part of the Atlantic is extremely warm right now — around 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit), which is 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal,” said Akshay Deoras, a meteorologist at the University of Reading, in the United Kingdom. “And it’s not just the surface. The deeper layers of the ocean are also unusually warm, providing a vast reservoir of energy for the storm.”

Deoras, who has tracked the impact of climate change on weather phenomena for decades, said scientists are seeing storms intensify quickly.

“Climate change is fundamentally changing our weather. It does not mean that every single tropical cyclone is going to go through rapid or super-rapid intensification. However, in our warmer world, it will continue to increase the likelihood of storms going through rapid and super-rapid intensification,” said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators.

Storms more likely to intensify

A 2023 study had found that Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to intensify rapidly from minor storms to powerful and catastrophic events. The study looked at 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1971. It found that in the last 20 years, 8.1% of storms powered from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours. That happened only 3.2% of the time from 1971 to 1990, according to a study in the journal Scientific Reports.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center has warned of “ catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides ” from Melissa in Jamaica, where some areas could receive up to 40 inches of rain. The storm has already killed at least four people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Climate scientists have long warned that warming oceans — driven by greenhouse gas emissions — are making such explosive storm development more common. “We’re living in a warmer world, and that means hurricanes are more likely to intensify quickly, especially near coastlines,” Deoras said.

Storms intensifying faster near land poses greater risks to lives and infrastructure, said Deoras. “If a hurricane forms deep in the ocean and just dissipates over the ocean, it’s fine. It’s not going to affect anyone. But if it forms close to the coast, and if it just crosses the coast, as we are going to see in the case of Jamaica and other regions, it’s a big problem,” he said.

Deoras added that while hurricanes are natural phenomena, climate change is amplifying their impact. “We can’t stop hurricanes, but we can reduce the risk by cutting emissions and improving coastal defenses,” he said. Investment is needed in early warning systems, sea walls and other infrastructure to make communities, especially in island countries, more resilient to climate impacts, he said.

The world has warmed too much to prevent phenomena like rapid intensification, he said. Various global weather agencies found that last year was the hottest year on record.

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Islands at risk

The impact of climate change is putting lives at risk on islands and in coastal areas, Placky said. “With 90% of our extra heat going into our oceans, we’re seeing these oceans warm and they’re rising. And that plays out with sea level rise. So even outside of any storm, the water levels are getting higher. They’re creeping away at our coastlines and they’re going farther inland,” she said.

A storm like Melissa only compounds these impacts, according to Placky. “These storms are really ripping away at the coastal infrastructure of these islands,” she said.

The NOAA predicted a busier-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season this year, with 13 to 18 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes. After a slow start, that’s been largely accurate, with 13 storms and four major hurricanes and roughly another month left in the season.

The impact of such storms increases the urgency for global action to reduce the amount of planet-heating gases released into the atmosphere according to policymakers in small island countries.

At least six people have already died as a result of Melissa in the northern Caribbean and the storm has damaged nearly 200 homes in the Dominican Republic. When the hurricane makes landfall in Jamaica, it’ll likely be the strongest storm to hit the island since record-keeping began in 1851.

“All of our small island developing states know all too well the fear and dread those in the hurricane’s path are feeling. This trauma should not be anyone’s norm,” said Anne Rasmussen, lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States at the United Nations climate talks, the next session of which is scheduled to be held in Brazil next month.

Rasmussen said extreme weather events like Hurricane Melissa only make it more urgent for countries to begin acting more decisively on climate change. “We need urgent action that gets us back on track with a 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming limit increase, so we can avoid even worse impacts to come,” she said.

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Hurricane Melissa strengthened further Tuesday as it crawled toward Jamaica as a catastrophic Category 5 storm, the strongest to lash the island since recordkeeping began 174 years ago.

The storm is expected to make landfall early Tuesday and slice diagonally across the island, entering near St. Elizabeth parish in the south and exiting around St. Ann parish in the north, forecasters said.

Melissa was centered about 30 miles (55 kilometers) southwest of Negril and about 230 miles (375 kilometers) southwest of Guantánamo, Cuba. The system had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 kph) and was moving north-northeast at 9 mph (11 kph), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Melissa is the fifth most intense Atlantic basin hurricane on record by pressure and the strongest to make landfall since Hurricane Dorian in 2019, according to hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry.

It is “a worst-case scenario unfolding for Jamaica,” he said.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters found Melissa is strengthening and warned “total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa’s center.”

“This is an extremely dangerous and a life-threatening situation. Take cover now! Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, and loss of life. Residents in the Jamaica should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the eyewall of Melissa,” the NHC said in a 10 a.m. ET advisory.

Hours before the storm, the government said it had done all it could to prepare as it warned of catastrophic damage.

“There is no infrastructure in the region that can withstand a Category 5,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said. “The question now is the speed of recovery. That’s the challenge.”

Landslides, fallen trees and numerous power outages were reported ahead of the storm, with officials in Jamaica cautioning that the cleanup and damage assessment would be slow.

A life-threatening storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) is expected across southern Jamaica, with officials concerned about the impact on some hospitals along the coastline. Health Minister Christopher Tufton said some patients were relocated from the ground floor to the second floor, “and (we) hope that will suffice for any surge that will take place.”

The storm already was blamed for seven deaths in the Caribbean, including three in Jamaica, three in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing.

Jamaica braces for catastrophic damage

Melissa’s barometric pressure — a measure of a storm’s strength, with the lower the pressure indicating a stronger and more dangerous storm — is the strongest ever recorded so late in the Atlantic hurricane season, according to NBC Miami meteorologist John Morales. At 6 a.m. ET, Melissa was at 901 millibars. Three hours later, the NHC advised it had dropped to 896 millibars, making the storm stronger than hurricanes Katrina and Milton. By 10 a.m. ET, the storm reached 892 millibars.

‘Oh my Jesus Christ,” a stunned Morales reacted upon learning of the update live on-air.

Colin Bogle, a Mercy Corps advisor based near Kingston, said most families are sheltering in place despite the government ordering evacuations in flood-prone communities.

“Many have never experienced anything like this before, and the uncertainty is frightening,” he said. “There is profound fear of losing homes and livelihoods, of injury, and of displacement.”

Necephor Mghendi, the International Red Cross’ regional head of delegation for the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean, said an estimated 1.5 million people in the storm’s path will be affected but many others may be as well.

“The entire population may feel the impact one way or the other,” he said by video link from Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.

More than 240,000 customers were without power before landfall and about one-fourth of the telecommunications system was offline, said Darryl Vaz, transport and energy minister.

He said crews will clean and run tests at the island’s two main international airports Wednesday in hopes of receiving emergency relief flights as early as Thursday.

U.N. agencies and dozens of nonprofits had food, medicine and other essential supplies prepositioned as they awaited a distribution rush after the storm.

Matthew Samuda, Jamaica’s water and environment minister, said he had more than 50 generators available to deploy after the storm, but warned people to set aside clean water and use it sparingly.

“Every drop will count,” he said.

Melissa takes aim at Cuba and Bahamas

Melissa also was expected to make landfall in eastern Cuba late Tuesday as a powerful hurricane.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguin provinces, while a tropical storm warning was in effect for Las Tunas. Up to 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain were forecast for parts of Cuba, along with a significant storm surge along the coast.

Cuban officials said Monday that they were evacuating more than 600,000 people from the region, including Santiago, the island’s second-largest city.

Melissa also has drenched the southern regions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with a tropical storm warning still in effect for Haiti.

The hurricane was forecast to turn northeast after Cuba and strike the southeast Bahamas by Wednesday evening.

Bahamian officials issued mandatory evacuation orders for residents living in several areas in the Caribbean nation.

The Disaster Risk Management Authority, the country’s agency for managing natural disasters, said in a Tuesday afternoon news release that residents of Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Kay, Inagua, Mayaguana, and Ragged Island should evacuate immediately.

“Residents of the islands listed in the official Evacuation Order are urged to evacuate immediately,” the agency said. “If you choose not to evacuate, please note that assistance will not be available until the All-Clear is issued.”

A hurricane warning was in effect for the southeastern and central Bahamas, and a tropical storm warning was issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Coto reported from San Juan, Puerto Rico.

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The weather agency added Melissa is likely to reach the southern coast of Jamaica as a major hurricane late Monday or Tuesday morning, and urged people on the island to seek shelter immediately.

“Conditions (in Jamaica) are going to go down rapidly today,” Jamie Rhome, the center’s deputy director, said on Sunday. “Be ready to ride this out for several days.”

Melissa was centered about 115 miles (185 kilometers) south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 295 miles (470 kilometers) south-southwest of Guantánamo, Cuba, on Sunday morning. It had maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (230 kph) and was moving west at 5 mph (7 kph), the hurricane center said.

Melissa was expected to drop torrential rains of up to 30 inches (760 millimeters) on Jamaica and southern Hispaniola — Haiti and the Dominican Republic — according to the hurricane center. Some areas may see as much as 40 inches (1,010 millimeters) of rain.

It also warned that extensive damage to infrastructure, power and communication outages, and the isolation of communities in Jamaica were to be expected.

Melissa should be near or over Cuba by late Tuesday, where it could bring up to 12 inches (300 millimeters) of rain, before moving toward the Bahamas later Wednesday.

The Cuban government issued a hurricane warning for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. It also sent a tropical storm warning to the province of Las Tunas.

Airports closed and shelters activated

Jamaica’s two main airports, the Norman Manley International Airport and the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, were closed by Sunday.

Local officials said they were considering enforcing an evacuation order as many residents of low-lying and flood prone areas did not heed advice to evacuate.

“The question of the mandatory movement will soon be addressed,” Desmond McKenzie, who is leading the Jamaican government’s disaster response, said in a press conference. Melissa is forecast to reach Category 5 when it makes landfall along the south coast on Tuesday.

McKenzie also said all the more of 650 shelters in Jamaica are open. Officials said earlier that warehouses across the island were well-stocked and thousands of food packages pre-positioned for quick distribution if needed.

Evan Thompson, the principal director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, said the storm surge is expected mainly over the southern side of the island.

“There is potential (for) flooding in every parish of our country,” Thompson said. “If you’re in a flood prone, low-lying area, you need to take note. If you’re near a river course or a gully, you need to take special note and find some alternative location that you can move to should you be threatened by the heavy rainfall.”

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Some foreign governments are also preparing for the hurricane’s arrival in Jamaica.

The government of Antigua and Barbuda is housing visiting students at a hotel in Kingston. As of Sunday morning, 52 of them had checked in.

“They have a better bounce back regimen here (at the hotel) in terms of standby power and water (in comparison with university dorms,” said Jewel Moore, 19, a chemistry student at UWI Mona. She and her fellow students are enjoying snacks and games before the hurricane arrives.

“The passing of the storm should be okay,” she added. “It’s getting out that will be a problem.”

The erratic and slow-moving storm has killed at least three people in Haiti and a fourth person in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing.

Communities cut off by rising waters

Haitian authorities said three people had died as a consequence of the hurricane and another five were injured due to a collapsed wall. There were also reports of rising river levels, flooding and a bridge destroyed due to breached riverbanks in Sainte-Suzanne, in the northeast.

Many residents are still reluctant to leave their homes, Haitian officials said.

The storm damaged nearly 200 homes in the Dominican Republic and knocked out water supply systems, affecting more than half a million customers. It also downed trees and traffic lights, unleashed a couple of small landslides and left more than two dozen communities isolated by floodwaters.

The Bahamas Department of Meteorology said Melissa could bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to islands in the southeastern and central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands by early next week.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had predicted an above-normal season with 13 to 18 named storms.

U.S. forecasters warned that the slow-moving Melissa is expected to strengthen further and be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica early next week. It should be near or over Cuba by the middle of the week.

“I urge Jamaicans to take this weather threat seriously,” said Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness. “Take all measures to protect yourself.”

Melissa was centered about 120 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 280 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, early Sunday morning. It had maximum sustained winds of 140 mph and was moving west at 5 mph, the hurricane center said.

Melissa was expected to drop torrential rains of up to 30 inches on Jamaica and southern Hispaniola – Haiti and the Dominican Republic – according to the hurricane center.

The Cuban government on Saturday afternoon issued a hurricane watch for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin.

Storm’s slow progress

The erratic and slow-moving storm has killed at least three people in Haiti and a fourth person in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing.

“Unfortunately for places along the projected path of this storm, it is increasingly dire,” Jamie Rhome, the center’s deputy director, said earlier on Saturday. He said the storm will continue to move slowly for up to four days.

Authorities in Jamaica said on Saturday that the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston will be closed at 8 p.m. local time. It did not say whether it will close the Sangster airport in Montego Bay, on the western side of the island.

More than 650 shelters were activated in Jamaica. Officials said warehouses across the island were well-stocked and thousands of food packages prepositioned for quick distribution if needed.

River levels rise

Haitian authorities said three people had died as a consequence of the hurricane and another five were injured due to a collapsed wall. There were also reports of rising river levels, flooding and a bridge destroyed due to breached riverbanks in Sainte-Suzanne, in the northeast.

“The storm is causing a lot of concern with the way it’s moving,” said Ronald Délice, a Haitian department director of civil protection, as local authorities organized lines to distribute food kits. Many residents are still reluctant to leave their homes.

The storm has damaged nearly 200 homes in the Dominican Republic and knocked out water supply systems, affecting more than half a million customers. It also downed trees and traffic lights, unleashed a couple of small landslides and left more than two dozen communities isolated by floodwaters.

The Bahamas Department of Meteorology said Melissa could bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to islands in the Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands by early next week.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had predicted an above-normal season with 13 to 18 named storms.

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Associated Press writer Evens Sanon in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, contributed to this report.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for parts of Haiti, while the Jamaican government issued a tropical storm watch for the island.

On Tuesday morning, Melissa was about 300 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. It was moving west at 14 mph.

Officials said Haiti and the Dominican Republic could see 5 to 10 inches of rainfall by Friday, with Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica getting 1 to 3 inches of rain.

Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and was moving west-northwest at 2 mph about 305 miles south-southwest of Port-Au-Prince, Haiti, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

A hurricane watch was issued for the southern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.

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A tropical storm watch was also in effect for Jamaica.

Melissa was expected to turn to the northwest and north before approaching the southwestern portion of Haiti and Jamaica later this week, the NHC said.

Gradual strengthening was expected during the next few days and the NHC track showed Melissa becoming a hurricane later this week.

It is still too early to tell what the exact track or intensity will be with Melissa, but the NHC is advising Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba to monitor the progress of the system, as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds and rough surf later this week.

In fact, because the forward speed is so slow, the system could be a prolific rain-maker.

Wed 5 am EDT: The Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Melissa are below. The latest full NHC forecast is at https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ pic.twitter.com/tWsCn5D3lm

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 22, 2025

Models agree in the short term, but become quite divergent later in the week. There are three possible scenarios at play:

• Melissa moves west into Central America.
• Melissa curls north, possibly bringing impacts to portions of the Caribbean.
• A later northern curve could bring it near the Bahamas.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. If it becomes a hurricane, it would be the fifth this year.

An average hurricane season generally produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

The hurricane season officially began June 1 and ends November 30.

Both Hurricane Humberto, now a top-strength Category 5 hurricane, and Tropical Depression Nine, forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday morning, are expected to move north and parallel the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts.

In an 5 a.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center said Humberto is now a Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.

“Humberto will likely remain a powerful major hurricane for the next several days,” the hurricane center said.

It was spinning roughly 585 miles south of Bermuda and moving west-northwest at 13 mph, the center said. The main concern so far for the U.S. mainland is high surf, federal forecasters indicated.

Swells will first impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Bermuda starting Saturday night, the hurricane center said. They’ll likely roll into the United States’ East Coast starting Monday, it said.

“These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” it said in the advisory.

A federal buoy 330 nautical miles northeast of St. Martin in the Leeward Islands on Saturday posted multiple examples of waves at or above 10 feet. Buoys in waters impacted by Humberto on Saturday showed water temperatures as high as 86.7 degrees, a sign that the main fuel for a hurricane’s muscle — warm water — is present in early fall.

Humberto is also producing hurricane-force winds as far as 25 miles from its center, the federal forecasters said.

Tropical Depression Nine

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Nine, spinning about 275 miles northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba and moving northwest at 7 mph, is expected to rise to tropical storm status overnight, according to the hurricane center.

The tropical storm category requires minimum sustained winds of 35 mph. At that point, the storm would get a name, likely Tropical Storm Imelda.

The tropical depression is expected to strengthen through next week and bring the possibility of flash, urban and river flooding to the coastal Carolinas as it parallels the East Coast on its trek north, the hurricane center said.

Heavy rainfall was expected from Florida to the eastern Carolinas starting early next week, with 2 to 4 inches of precipitation possible, it said.

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster issued an emergency declaration, state emergency officials said swift-water rescue crews have been activated and the South Carolina National Guard said 150 soldiers were assigned to help with the state’s storm response.

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“The time to prepare is now,” McMaster said at a news conference Saturday.

National Hurricane Center forecast cones show Tropical Depression Nine keeping some distance from the East Coast as it heads north. But the possibility of landfall in South Carolina is “still a concern,” John Quagliariello, National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist said at a news conference.

The storm could also stall off the coast, he said, giving it time to put more water on the ground and increasing flood danger.

Tropical storm watches and warnings

On Saturday, a Nine-related tropical storm watch — which warns of serious winds, waves and surges, but which includes uncertain timing — was in effect for Florida’s Atlantic Coast from roughly Palm Coast to Daytona Beach.

Tropical Depression Nine on Saturday also triggered a tropical storm warning, meaning heavy rain and potent 39- to 73-mph winds are all but assured for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador, as well as for sections of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island and Grand Bahama Island, the hurricane center said.

The storm was also expected to produce a 1- to 3-foot storm surge, as well as life-threatening waves in parts of the Bahamas throughout the weekend, the center said.

The Bahamas Disaster Risk Management Authority in a statement Saturday urged residents of parts of the Northern Bahamas to evacuate ahead of the storm.

U.S. forecasters said in an offshore waters forecast on Saturday that Tropical Depression Nine would likely be a hurricane, defined by 74 to 95 mph winds, by Tuesday morning.

Fewer major storms than average

The back-to-back action, not to mention Hurricane Gabrielle, which spun over the central subtropical Atlantic earlier in the week, are enlivening an otherwise sleepy 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Until Wednesday, the season produced a below-average number of major storms, defined as those at Category 3 or greater, despite forecasts for a season that would be more active than the average one, according to Colorado State University meteorologist and hurricane expert Philip Klotzbach.

In a post Friday on X, noting Humberto’s graduation to major status, Klotzbach said, “For the first time since 1935, the Atlantic’s first 3 hurricanes have all been major: Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto.”

Tangni Noriega and Phil Helsel contributed.

Erin, the first Atlantic hurricane of 2025, reached Category 5 status before weakening, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The storm’s center was about 155 miles (245 kilometers) north of San Juan, Puerto Rico and nearly 300 miles (500 kilometers) east of the Grand Turk Island, moving west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph).

A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, and in this case, within 24 hours, the NHC said. Heavy rain is still expected across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches (about 7.6 to 15 cms), with 8 inches (20 cms) in some isolated areas.

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More than 159,000 customers were without power in Puerto Rico as a result of Hurricane Erin on Sunday morning, according to Luma Energy, a private company that oversees the transmission and distribution of power on the island.

Swells were also expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days, the NHC reported.

The government of the Bahamas also issued a tropical storm watch for the Southeast Bahamas.

Scientists have linked the rapid intensification of hurricanes in the Atlantic to climate change. Global warming is causing the atmosphere to hold more water vapor and is spiking ocean temperatures, and warmer waters give hurricanes fuel to unleash more rain and strengthen more quickly.

The hurricane center said Flossie was about 280 kilometers (175 miles) south of Manzanillo and was moving west-northwest off the Mexican coast at 17 kph (10 mph).

Flossie was expected to skirt the coast for a few days while dropping rain on several Mexican states.

Mexico’s government earlier issued a tropical storm warning along the southwestern coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula.

A tropical storm watch remained in effect for other areas on the southwest coast from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. A watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the area within two days.

While its center is forecast to remain offshore, rainfall up to 150 mm (6 inches) was likely for parts of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco into Wednesday, with the possibility of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain.

Flossie is forecast to strengthen over the next 36 hours before weakening over cooler waters.

The data comes from microwave sensors attached to three aging polar-orbiting satellites operated for both military and civilian purposes. Data from the sensors is critical to hurricane forecasters because it allows them to peer through layers of clouds and into the center of a storm, where rain and thunderstorms develop, even at night. The sensors don’t rely on visible light.

Losing the data — at a time when the National Weather Service is releasing fewer weather balloons and the agency is short on meteorologists because of budget cuts — will make it more likely that forecasters miss key developments in a hurricane, several hurricane experts said. Those changes help meteorologists determine what level of threat a storm may pose and therefore how emergency managers ought to prepare. Microwave data offers some of the earliest indications that sustained winds are strengthening inside a storm.

“It’s really the instrument that allows us to look under the hood. It’s definitely a significant loss. There’s no doubt at all hurricane forecasts will be degraded because of this,” said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher and senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. “They’re able to detect when an eye wall forms in a tropical storm and if it’s intensifying — or rapidly intensifying.”

Researchers think rapid intensification is becoming more likely in tropical storms as the oceans warm as a result of human-caused climate change.

The three satellites are operated for both military and civilian purposes through the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, a joint effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Department of Defense.

While hurricane experts said they were concerned about losing the tool, Kim Doster, NOAA’s communications director, downplayed the decision’s effect on hurricane forecasting by the National Weather Service.

In an email, Doster said the military’s microwave data “is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio.”

Doster said these models include data from geostationary satellites — a different system that constantly observes Earth from about 22,300 miles away and offers a vantage point that appears fixed because the satellites synchronize with Earth’s rotation.

They also ingest measurements from Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions, buoys, weather balloons, land-based radar and from other polar-orbiting satellites, including NOAA’s Joint Polar Satellite System, which she said provides “the richest, most accurate satellite weather observations available.”

A U.S. Space Force official said the satellites and their instruments in question remain functional and that the data will be sent directly to weather satellite readout terminals across the DOD. The Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center made the decision to stop processing that data and sharing it publicly, the official said.

The Navy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Earlier this week, a division of the Navy notified researchers that it would cease to process and share the data on or before June 30, and some researchers received an email from the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, saying that its data storage and sharing program relied on a processing station that was using an “end-of-life” operating system with vulnerabilities.

“The operating system cannot be upgraded, poses a cybersecurity concern, and introduces risk to DoD networks,” the email, which was reviewed by NBC News, said.

The move will cut the amount of microwave data available to forecasters in half, McNoldy estimated.

This microwave data is also used by snow and ice scientists to track the extent of polar sea ice, which helps scientists understand long-term climate trends. Sea ice forms from frozen ocean water. It grows in coverage during winter months and typically melts during warmer times of the year. Sea ice reflects sunlight back into space, which cools the planet. That makes it an important metric to track over time. The extent of summer Arctic sea ice is trending lower because of global warming.

Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said his program learned of the Navy’s decision earlier this week.

Meier said the satellites and sensors are about 16 years old. Researchers have been preparing for them to eventually fail, but they weren’t expecting the military to pull the plug on data with little warning, he said.

Meier said the National Snow and Ice Data Center has relied on the military satellites for data on sea ice coverage since 1987, but will adapt its systems to use similar microwave data from a Japanese satellite, called AMSR-2, instead.

“It certainly could be a few weeks before we get that data into our system,” Meier said. “I don’t think it’s going to undermine our sea ice climate data record in terms of confidence in it, but it’s going to be more challenging.”

The polar-orbiting satellites that are part of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program provide intermittent coverage of hurricane-prone areas.

The satellites typically zip around the globe in a north-south orientation every 90-100 minutes in a relatively low orbit, Meier said. The microwave sensors scan across a narrow swath of the earth, which Meier estimated at roughly 1,500 miles.

As the Earth rotates, these polar-orbiting satellites can capture imagery that helps researchers determine the structure and potential intensity of a storm, if it happens to be in their path.

“It’s often just by luck, you’ll get a really nice pass over a hurricane,” McNoldy said, adding that the change will reduce the geographic area covered by microwave scans and the frequency of scans of a particular storm.

Andy Hazelton, a hurricane modeler and associate scientist with the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, said the microwave data is used in some hurricane models and also by forecasters who can access near real-time visualizations of the data.

Hazelton said forecasters are always looking for visual signatures in microwave data that often provide the first evidence a storm is rapidly intensifying and building strength.

The National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as a 35-mph or higher increase in sustained winds inside a tropical storm within 24 hours. Losing the microwave data is particularly important now because in recent years, scientists have observed an increase in rapid intensification, a trend likely fueled in part by climate change as ocean waters warm.

A 2023 study published the journal Scientific Reports found that tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean were about 29% more likely to undergo rapid intensification from 2001 to 2020, compared to 1971 to 1990. Last year, Hurricane Milton strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 36 hours. Some of that increase took place overnight, when other satellite instruments offer less information.

The trend is particularly dangerous when a storm, like Hurricane Idalia, intensifies just before striking the coast.

“We’ve certainly seen in recent years many cases of rapid intensification ahead of landfall. That’s the kind of thing you really don’t want to miss,” McNoldy said, adding that microwave data is “excellent at giving the important extra 12 hours of lead time to see the inner core changes happening.”

Brian LaMarre, the former meteorologist-in-charge at the National Weather Service’s weather forecasting station in Tampa Bay, said the data is also useful for predicting flood impacts as a hurricane comes ashore.

“That scan can help predict where the heavier precipitation and rainfall rates can be,” LaMarre said. “This data is critically important to public safety.”

Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. It typically starts to peak in late summer and early fall. NOAA forecasters have predicted a more busy 2025 hurricane season than typical, with six to 10 hurricanes. 

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Erick came ashore down southern Mexico’s Pacific coast in the morning as a Category 3 major hurricane, but it landed in a sparsely populated stretch of coastline between resorts Acapulco and Puerto Escondido.

Authorities reported landslides, blocked highways, downed power lines and some flooding, and late Thursday one death as coastal residents, above all in Acapulco, took the storm seriously with memories of devastating Hurricane Otis in 2023 still fresh in their minds.

In Puerto Escondido, fishermen searched for and inspected storm-tossed boats.

The threat of heavy rain remained in the mountains that rise abruptly behind Acapulco’s famed beaches. Erick spent the day dragging through the coastal mountain range dropping torrential quantities of rain. It was expected to dissipate Thursday night over the mountains in Michoacan state.

Erick once had Category 4 strength

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Erick was centered about 95 miles (155 kilometers) north-northwest of Acapulco Thursday night. Its maximum sustained winds were 30 mph (45 kph), degrading it to a low pressure area. It was moving northwest at 13 mph (20 kph).

Erick had strengthened to a Category 4 storm as it approached the coast but weakened before making landfall to a Category 3.

Having doubled in strength in less than a day, Erick churned through an ideal environment for quick intensification. Last year, there were 34 incidents of rapid intensification — when a storm gains at least 35 mph in 24 hours — which is about twice as many as average and causes problems with forecasting, according to the hurricane center.

Storm moves south on approach

At first light Thursday, Acapulco awoke under ominous dark clouds. Rain started later in the morning with the arrival of stronger winds. There was light traffic in the streets.

Some residents shopped in the few open stores, fishermen went to the shore to check their boats and a few people took advantage of the calm for a quick swim.

The storm tore into a stretch of coastline near the border of Oaxaca and Guerrero states, where agricultural fields outnumbered tourists. Erick then weakened rapidly as it crashed into the coastal mountains of southern Mexico.

The storm moved northwest just inland up the coast through midday, bringing heavy rain to the resort. But Acapulco had dodged the worst at least in terms of Erick’s strong winds.

One death reported

President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday “the people have reacted very well so far.”

But authorities warned the heavy rain would now become the problem.

Forecasters expected up to 16 inches (40 centimeters) could fall across Oaxaca and Guerrero, with lesser totals in Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco states. The rainfall threatened flooding and mudslides, especially in areas with steep terrain.

Late Thursday, Guerrero state Civil Defense Director Roberto Arroyo said that a 1-year-old child had died in San Marcos, an inland community southeast of Acapulco in the path of Erick. The child’s mother had tried to cross a swollen river carrying the child, but he slipped from her arms and drowned.

Guerrero Gov. Evelyn Salgado urged residents of her state Thursday to not grow complacent after Erick made landfall in neighboring Oaxaca.

“In Guerrero we continue on maximum alert, Erick is still a danger with the intense rains, it could drop on our state in the coming hours,” she said.

Acapulco still scarred by Otis

Acapulco residents had braced for Erick’s arrival with more preparation and trepidation because of the memory of the devastation two years earlier.

The city of nearly 1 million was hit in October 2023 by Hurricane Otis, a Category 5 hurricane that rapidly intensified and caught many unprepared. At least 52 people died in Otis and the storm severely damaged almost all of the resort’s hotels.

On Thursday morning, Marcial Gallardo, a 60-year-old waiter stepped into the water of Acapulco’s bay for a quick swim with his son. He said he takes a dip every day. Gallardo said he had tied down everything ahead of Erick after Otis had torn apart his home, and so far had fared well.

In Acapulco Thursday, there was a strong presence of National Guard and police in the streets, but most visible were trucks from the national power company. Crews worked to clear drainage canals and brush.

___

Cruz reported from Puerto Escondido, Mexico.

Heavy rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 centimeters), with amounts of up to 6 inches (15 centimeters) in limited areas, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. The rainfall may lead to flooding and mudslides.

Hurricanes Jun 5, 2025

With an ‘above normal' hurricane season forecast, check these 3 things in your home insurance policy

Hurricanes May 22, 2025

NOAA predicting an ‘above-normal' 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Swells affecting portions of the southwestern Mexico coast for the next few days can produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the hurricane center said.

Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph (75 kph) with higher gusts. The storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Monday.

It’s officially hurricane season, and early forecasts indicate it’s poised to be an active one.

Now is the time to take a look at your homeowners insurance policy to ensure you have enough and the right kinds of coverage, experts say — and make any necessary changes if you don’t.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 60% chance of “above-normal” Atlantic hurricane activity during this year’s season, which spans from June 1 to November 30.

The agency forecasts 13 to 19 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Six to 10 of those could become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3, 4, or 5.

Hurricanes can cost billions of dollars worth of damages. Experts at AccuWeather estimate that last year’s hurricane season cost $500 billion in total property damage and economic loss, making the season “one of the most devastating and expensive ever recorded.”

“Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens,” Ken Graham, NOAA’s national weather service director, said in the agency’s report.

Part of your checklist should include reviewing your insurance policies and what coverage you have, according to Charles Nyce, a risk management and insurance professor at Florida State University. 

“Besides being ready physically by having your radio, your batteries, your water … you should pay close attention to your insurance policies,” said Nyce.

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You want to know four key things: the value of property at risk, how much a loss could cost you, whether you’re protected in the event of flooding and if you have enough money set aside in case of emergencies, he said.

Bob Passmore, the department vice president of personal lines at the American Property Casualty Insurance Association, agreed: “It’s really important to review your policy at least annually, and this is a good time to do it.”

Insurers often suspend policy changes and pause issuing new policies when there’s a storm bearing down. So acting now helps ensure you have the right coverage before there’s an urgent need.

Here are three things to consider about your home insurance policy going into hurricane season, according to experts.

1. Review your policy limits

First, take a look at your policy’s limits, which represents the highest amount your insurance company will pay for a covered loss or damage, experts say. You want to make sure the policy limit is correct and would cover the cost of rebuilding your home, Passmore said.

Most insurance companies will calculate the policy limit by taking into account the size of your home and construction costs in your area, said Nyce. For example, if you have a 2,000 square foot home, and the cost of construction in your area is $250 per square foot, your policy limit would need to be $500,000, he said.

You may risk being underinsured, however, especially if you haven’t reviewed your coverage in a while. Rising building costs or home renovations that aren’t reflected in your insurer’s calculation can mean your coverage lags the home’s replacement value.

Repair and construction costs have increased in recent years, experts say. In the last five years, the cost of construction labor has increased 36.3% while the building material costs are up 42.7%, the APCIA found.

Most insurance companies follow what’s called the 80% rule, meaning your coverage needs to be at least 80% of its replacement cost. If you’re under, you risk your insurer paying less than the full claim.

2. Check your deductibles

Take a look at your deductibles, or the amount you have to pay out of pocket upfront if you file a claim, experts say.

For instance, if you have a $1,000 deductible on your policy and submit a claim for $8,000 of storm coverage, your insurer will pay $7,000 toward the cost of repairs, according to a report by NerdWallet. You’re responsible for the remaining $1,000.

A common way to lower your policy premium is by increasing your deductibles, Passmore said. 

Raising your deductible from $1,000 to $2,500 can save you an average 12% on your premium, per NerdWallet’s research.

But if you do that, make sure you have the cash on hand to absorb the cost after a loss, Passmore said.

Don’t stop at your standard policy deductible. Look over hazard-specific provisions such as a wind deductible, which is likely to kick in for hurricane damage.

Wind deductibles are an out-of-pocket cost that is usually a percentage of the value of your policy, said Nyce. As a result, they can be more expensive than your standard deductible, he said. 

If a homeowner opted for a 2% deductible on a $500,000 house, their out-of-pocket costs for wind damages can go up to $10,000, he said.

“I would be very cautious about picking larger deductibles for wind,” he said.

3. Assess if you need flood insurance

Floods are usually not covered by a homeowners insurance policy. If you haven’t yet, consider buying a separate flood insurance policy through the National Flood Insurance Program by the Federal Emergency Management Agency or through the private market, experts say. 

It can be worth it whether you live in a flood-prone area or not: Flooding causes 90% of disaster damage every year in the U.S., according to FEMA.

In 2024, Hurricane Helene caused massive flooding in mountainous areas like Asheville in Buncombe County, North Carolina. Less than 1% of households there were covered by the NFIP, according to a recent report by the Swiss Re Institute. 

If you decide to get flood insurance with the NFIP, don’t buy it at the last minute, Nyce said. There’s usually a 30-day waiting period before the new policy goes into effect. 

“You can’t just buy it when you think you’re going to need it like 24, 48 or 72 hours before the storm makes landfall,” Nyce said. “Buy it now before the storms start to form.” 

Make sure you understand what’s protected under the policy. The NFIP typically covers up to $250,000 in damages to a residential property and up to $100,000 on the contents, said Loretta Worters, a spokeswoman for the Insurance Information Institute.

If you expect more severe damage to your house, ask an insurance agent about excess flood insurance, Nyce said.

Such flood insurance policies are written by private insurers that cover losses over and above what’s covered by the NFIP, he said.

NOAA is forecasting 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes in the official outlook that was announced at a news conference Thursday morning. A major hurricane is a storm with category 3 intensity or greater.

As expected, the agency called for a 60% chance of an above-average season, citing warm sea surface temperatures and neural El Nino Southern Oscillation as the main drivers. Additionally, an enhanced West African Monsoon season could provide more seedlings for tropical development.

The hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends November 30.

Colorado State University forecasters released their predictions for the upcoming season last month and are calling for an “above-average” season with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

The CSU researchers said above-average subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea surface temperatures are a primary factor for their predictions.

An average hurricane season generally produces 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, with 3 major hurricanes.

While the driving factors leaning towards an above-average season stand out, the outlook does not offer guidance on where or when storms will form or ultimately track. Rather, the forecast speaks of the season’s total activity across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Seasonal outlooks provide an overview of anticipated conditions and outcomes across a large area but should not be used as guidance for what the season will look like for South Florida and the Keys.  Annual preparations should always be made as you review your hurricane plan.

The 2024 season was extremely busy, with 11 hurricanes and 18 named storms. Three 2024 storms names — Beryl, Helene and Milton — were retired after causing multiples deaths and heavy damages.

The list of hurricane names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is:

• Andrea
• Barry
• Chantal
• Dexter
• Erin
• Fernand
• Gabrielle
• Humberto
• Imelda
• Jerry
• Karen
• Lorenzo
• Melissa
• Nestor
• Olga
• Pablo
• Rebekah
• Sebastien
• Tanya
• Van
• Wendy