Did the US go from an ice cream trade surplus to deficit? Here’s the scoop

President Donald Trump’s administration dished out a cold burn to Trump’s ice-cream-loving predecessor, Joe Biden, saying he led the U.S. ice cream industry down an economic rocky road. 

"America had a trade surplus in ice cream in 2020 under President Trump's leadership, but that surplus turned into a trade deficit of $40.6 million under President Biden's watch," the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative wrote July 20 on X. The post included a chart that shows the U.S. ice cream trade deficit with Japan, South Africa, the European Union, Brazil, Canada and Turkey. 

The U.S. ice cream trade balance did change dramatically in 2021, the year Biden took office. The trade balance officially flipped negative — which means imports outnumber exports — in 2022 and has remained so since then.

But industry experts caution that U.S. ice cream imports account for a minuscule fraction of all the U.S. ice cream consumed in the U.S., and exports account for a tiny fraction of all U.S. ice cream produced.  

The trade change was driven mostly by a jump in imports. Exports have remained largely unchanged since 2020.

And the cherry on top? Disagreement over which products to classify as "ice cream" also affects data, experts say. For example, the data referenced by the office of the U.S. Trade Representative also includes "edible ice," which some experts (and dairy-defenders) say doesn’t qualify as ice cream. 

Removing edible ice shows that "the U.S. is a net exporter by a significant margin of ($193 million) or +85% larger by value," International Dairy Foods Association Executive Vice President Matt Herrick told PolitiFact via email.

Ice cream imports increase causes U.S. trade deficit 

From 1995 to 2020, the U.S. had an ice cream trade surplus, ranging from about $20 million to about $160 million, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, an online economic data platform. Longtime customers include Mexico followed by Saudi Arabia and Canada.

In 2021, that surplus nearly vanished, and in 2022 and 2023, the U.S. notched an ice cream trade deficit of $92 million and $33 million, respectively.

At first glance, importing frozen foods doesn’t seem practical. 

"Shipping refrigerated and frozen products overseas is expensive," dairy economist Betty Berning of HighGround Dairy said. "Mexico is the top destination for U.S. dairy exports." 

But many U.S. and European companies have tapped into global markets.

"Consumers may also want a specific treat that is styled after or known to be from another country," Herrick said. 

Italy, the birthplace of gelato, is now the United States’ largest single source of imported ice cream. Italian ice cream imports more than quintupled from about $12 million to almost $65 million between 2020 and 2021 alone, before decreasing somewhat in 2023, the last year for which data is available. 

Some of this stems from increased consumer demand for specialty pints. A report by Mordor Intelligence, a global market research firm, said "product innovation and premiumization" have become key in the U.S. ice cream industry. 

"This trend is particularly evident in the growth of premium pint offerings and individually wrapped novelties that cater to both indulgence and portion control preferences," the report said. 

The U.S. produces far more ice cream than it imports or exports

To get to the pint: The vast majority of ice cream consumed in the United States is made here, not overseas.

The Trump administration is cherry-picking stats from a fraction of a sliver of the U.S. ice cream industry.

According to U.S. Agriculture Department data, U.S. ice cream makers churned out 1.31 billion gallons of ice cream in 2024. This includes regular ice cream, low-fat and nonfat ice cream, sherbet and frozen yogurt. 

By comparison, the U.S. imported 2.35 million gallons of traditional ice cream in 2024 — that’s 0.18% of the amount produced domestically, Herrick said. 

The U.S. exported 16.4 million gallons of that domestic production, which is also a tiny fraction of 1.31 billion gallons of ice cream — a little over 1%. 

Factoring in ice cream mixes, excluding "edible ice" products

Another caveat about the international trade data: It does not include "mixes," which skews the totals, said Herrick of the International Dairy Foods Association.

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Mixes are used to make ice cream shakes and soft-serve products, and they account for a significant portion of U.S. ice cream exports. "Inclusion of such data points would change the picture quite significantly," said Herrick. "While it is true that traditional ice cream and edible ice exports have seen decreased exports, the same cannot be said for exports of mixes."

U.S. milk-based drink exports increased 621% over the past five years, he said. In 2024, the U.S. exported nearly $35 million in mixes to the European Union.

Americans and dairy-based ice cream: a centuries-old love affair melting away?

The White House has churned out plenty of ice cream devotees.

George Washington stocked the capital with ice cream-making equipment. Thomas Jefferson is credited as being the first American to record an ice cream recipe. Ronald Reagan declared July National Ice Cream Month in 1984. Barack Obama even slung scoops back in the day.

Biden, who was often sighted with a cone in hand, proclaimed while visiting Jeni’s Splendid Ice Cream headquarters in 2016, "My name is Joe Biden, and I love ice cream." 

But consumption of regular dairy ice cream — a category that does not include frozen yogurt, sherbet or nonfat and low-fat ice creams — has been trending down for years.

In 1975, Americans ate an average of 18.2 pounds of ice cream per year. That figure fell to 11.7 pounds by 2023. 

Our ruling

The office of the U.S. Trade Representative purported a summertime scoop: "America had a trade surplus in ice cream in 2020 under President Trump's leadership, but that surplus turned into a trade deficit of $40.6 million under President Biden's watch."

It’s accurate that the U.S. ice cream trade balance had a surplus for a quarter century before turning negative while Biden was president.

But the US Trade Representative’s statement makes the U.S. ice cream deficit appear out of cone-trol.

There’s three scoops of context on this trade sundae: 

The change was driven mostly by a jump in imports. Exports have remained largely unchanged since 2020.

U.S. ice cream imports and exports are a negligible amount compared to domestic production. 

There’s also disagreement over which products should or shouldn’t be included in the data set, which can skew trend interpretations. Excluding edible ice products and factoring in ice cream mixes leaves the U.S. with a surplus.

The statement is accurate but needs a sprinkling of clarification and additional details, so we rate it Mostly True.

Chief Correspondent Louis Jacobson contributed to this report.