International Crisis Group

"Six months into the Iran conflict and neither side has won. Neither side is backing down, either. In a strange way, we are back to where we started." Ali Vaez explains why the Middle East is stuck between elusive peace and another major war.

Multiple indicators confirm that we are in era defined by hard power and deadly violence. 💥 Deadly conflicts at a record high of 65 since the Second World War (Uppsala University) 🪖 Military spending up 40% since the last decade (SIPRI) The United Nations Security Council has failed to deal with crises in Ukraine, Myanmar, Gaza, Sudan and elsewhere. Despair, however, is not a strategy or an option. According to International Crisis Group CEO Comfort Ero and Global Issues Director Richard Gowan: "Difficult as it may be to see in the moment, there may be underlying forces favoring a reduction in violence. The simplest is that even major powers are learning that hard power has drawbacks." A stoic and important read published by Foreign Policy on the decline of multilateralism, the evolution of peacemaking and the limitations of hard power. Link to the piece in the comments. 📸 UN Headquarters in Geneva / alxpin

After enduring one of the most horrific wars of the 21st century, Gaza’s landscape is unrecognisable to its people. Palestinians in the decimated strip desperately need a way out of the ruins. The world should not make the mistake of abandoning them again. The war has torn Gaza apart, killing at least 73,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, and erasing entire families and communities. Other credible estimates are far higher. Over 1,200 of those people have been killed since the truce began in October, mostly in sporadic Israeli airstrikes as well as shootings along the Yellow Line drawn as part of the first phase. The Yellow Line has partitioned the strip, with Israeli forces lethally enforcing it as a “no-go” zone; they have also levelled entire neighbourhoods on their side of the line as they push it farther toward the sea. Most Palestinians remain displaced and living in tents or crumbling buildings. Many Palestinians are raising serious questions about a ceasefire deal that, in their view, has not ended the war but merely slowed it down and institutionalised it to Israel’s advantage: https://lnkd.in/e9scvTZP 🗺️ Map: The Israeli army is pushing beyond the Yellow Line, to which it had previously withdrawn under the truce, and as of early August 2026 controlled 65 to 70 per cent of the strip. The Orange Line designates areas to coordinate humanitarian aid deliveries. Source: International Crisis Group research, OSM, as of August 2026 / CRISIS GROUP

'Despair is not a strategy.' Comfort Ero explains in Foreign Policy how peacemakers - even in an era defined by hard power and deadly violence - can prevent and contain today’s multiplying conflicts. ⬇️

🇺🇳 The Month Ahead: Special Edition | Can the United Nations Be Saved? As the UN General Assembly looms large, this edition breaks from the usual format. UN General Assembly High-Level Week is one of the most consequential events on the diplomatic calendar and our President and CEO, Comfort Ero, will be attending next month in New York. The stakes could hardly be higher. The UN is being hollowed out by funding cuts just as the global order is fragmenting and wars are multiplying. If the UN is to remain relevant, world leaders at this year’s summit must prove they are willing to strengthen it. As the race to replace António Guterres heats up, their demands of the next Secretary-General will reveal exactly how serious they are. In this month’s special edition, Comfort Ero assesses the speeches to pay attention to and background reading ahead of diplomacy's annual endurance test.

On 30 July, ten months into a tenuous ceasefire in Gaza, the Board of Peace established by U.S. President Donald Trump and endorsed by the UN Security Council declared it had reached a “historic” agreement with Hamas and other Palestinian factions to decommission their weapons. The fifteen-point roadmap appeared to settle a dispute over disarmament, seen as a key obstacle to advancing the truce, while empowering a team of Palestinian technocrats, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), to lead the process. But the proclaimed breakthrough was short-lived. Within days, Israel dismissed the deal and the Board then seemingly backtracked on its terms. The episode was emblematic of a ceasefire that has failed to deliver most of its promises and threatens to trap Gaza’s 2.1 million Palestinians in permanent deprivation or throw them back into war. Preventing those outcomes will require the U.S., regional and European governments to press Israel to ease its chokehold on Gaza, support the decommissioning plan agreed to by Palestinian factions and ensure that Gaza’s rehabilitation is Palestinian-driven. After enduring one of the most horrific wars of the 21st century, Palestinians in Gaza desperately need a way out of the ruins. If it could be revived, as my colleagues outline in this new International Crisis Group report, the fifteen-point roadmap, for all its limits, might provide them with tools that will help. Likewise, while the NCAG cannot heal Palestinians’ political fissures or give them a functioning national movement, let alone roll back Israel’s six-decade occupation, it could go some way toward helping Gaza prevail in the battle for survival. For many Palestinian families deprived of food, shelter and medicine, recovery is itself a political act. It allows them to reassert their place in their homeland, giving them space to reorganise and forge a viable path to self-determination. The world should not make the mistake of abandoning them again. Amjad Iraqi Max Rodenbeck https://lnkd.in/gbY84Z8B

For months I’ve been tracking the fate of the NCAG, the technocratic committee tasked with rehabilitating Gaza. Its story is emblematic of a ceasefire that hasn’t just failed to deliver many promises, but is threatening to trap Palestinians in limbo or throw them back into war. Despite scepticism, the NCAG is a potential answer to various political and administrative problems. But two main obstacles have blocked its way: a dysfunctional U.S.-led hierarchy that downgrades Palestinian priorities; and a deadlock over disarming Hamas that has failed to overcome Israel’s maximalist demands. Trump’s Board of Peace has enabled both, as the saga around a proclaimed “breakthrough” on 30 July starkly shows. Two million Palestinians are held captive to this mess, struggling to survive ten months on. For them, the ceasefire hasn’t ended the war, but merely slowed it down and institutionalised it to Israel’s advantage. The NCAG is being made irrelevant before it even sets foot in Gaza to start its work. This perilous logjam can be broken with the right mix of pressures and incentives. Raise the price on Israel for blocking Gaza’s vital needs. Back a realistic decommissioning plan in lockstep with Israeli withdrawal. Bolster the NCAG as a Palestinian-driven vehicle for recovery. The NCAG can’t heal Palestinians’ political fissures or roll back Israel’s occupation. But it could help them prevail in the battle for survival and preserve agency over their homeland. Palestinians have endured decades of hollow promises; a genuine ceasefire need not be another. Our new International Crisis Group report: https://lnkd.in/daKbXeNa

Nine years since Myanmar’s military launched its brutal campaign against the Rohingya, those remaining in Rakhine State now face renewed violence and abuse, caught between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army. International Crisis Group’s Thomas Kean spoke to Al Jazeera Media Network's I-Unit.

🗞️ This Week in Conflict |  Yemen is Back at War. The Question Now is: Will it Spread? It is unclear which way things are headed, but the danger of wider war is real, and the consequences for Yemen and the Middle East would be severe. The most significant Houthi salvo came on 6 August, when the group fired several ballistic missiles and drones at positions of the government-aligned Emergency Forces. Yemeni military sources told Crisis Group that at least 50 soldiers, including four Saudi Arabian officers, were killed and dozens injured. The Houthis claimed that they acted to pre-empt a planned assault by government forces. But sources in Sanaa suggest that their motive lay elsewhere. The most likely near-term scenario entails continued, restrained exchanges involving missiles, drones and artillery on land and at sea, alongside more intense ground fighting on a few fronts. A return to meaningful negotiations is not beyond reach but as the conflict broadens, prospects for containment are shrinking. Ahmed Nagi explains what is happening in Yemen.

🇱🇾 The U.S. initiative in Libya has merit in its aim to unblock a transition that has long been stalled. However, the initiative remains a gamble. ➡️ https://lnkd.in/e_Sgr5dj