Numerator

Will they actually eat it? That question is carrying more weight in school-day food decisions this year. 🍎 🥪 64% of parents say packing meals or snacks their child will actually eat is most important, up from 61%. 🥗 41% say providing sufficient daily nutrition is important, down from 53%. The takeaway for food and beverage brands: kid acceptance is becoming increasingly important as families prioritize practical, day-to-day needs.

Produce concerns are spreading beyond grocery aisles. Consumers are pulling back on fresh salads, but they aren’t fully replacing what they’ve stopped buying. 🥬 🥫 While 45% of U.S. consumers say they have or plan to substitute fresh produce, household penetration rose just 0.3 points for canned vegetables and 0.1 points for frozen. 🍽️ QSR salad trips declined more than 16% from the prior period, while per-household spending fell 2.1%. The pullback may be temporary: 82% of consumers who stopped purchasing salad mixes and kits plan to return once the outbreak is contained.

Numerator's German team is at it again! 📍 On September 8 and 9, Fabian Gruß, Luca Darius Salehi, Laura Schiller, Jasmin Amalie Bußjäger, and Jonas Rebmann-Christensen will be attending the planung&analyse insights conference in Frankfurt. ☕ Attendees can easily find Numerator - look for the coffee bike! Stop for a coffee, learn more about Numerator, and enter to win a free Verified Voices survey.

Value wins, and reuse is rising. Back-to-school shoppers are getting more deliberate about where their dollars go. 🎒 💰 58% say getting the best price possible is their top priority, up 1 point year over year. 🔄 51% plan to reuse items from past years to save money, up from 45%. 📉 Households relying heavily on reuse expect to spend 30% less than other households. For brands and retailers, value messaging must make replacement worth it.

Fast-food momentum isn’t evenly distributed. McDonald’s and Burger King reported sharply different Q2 results, but shifting traffic and spending reveal a more nuanced competition for fast-food dollars. 🍔 🚗 McDonald’s traffic declined 2.0% year over year and 1.1% from the prior quarter. 👑 Burger King traffic declined 1.8% year over year but returned to quarterly growth, rising 0.3%. 💰 Low-income guest spending at McDonald’s fell 2.4%, representing more than $310 million in lost sales. 📈 Burger King maintained spending among low-income guests and grew nearly twice as fast among higher-income households. 📉 Wendy’s saw the largest decline in share of spending among both chains’ shoppers, falling 0.6 percentage points among McDonald’s shoppers and 0.7 points among Burger King shoppers. Earnings results tell part of the story. Shopper behavior fills in the rest.

Value still powers private label. Consumers continue to see private label as a smart way to stretch their dollars, but value is only part of the shopper mindset. 💰 61% of consumers think private label brands offer above-average value for their price 🏷️ 38% purchase private label items to save money ⚖️ 19% think private label brands are just as good as name brands Learn more: https://bit.ly/4c05tiJ

Millions of households are pausing salad purchases. The Cyclospora outbreak shows how quickly food safety concerns can reshape consumer behavior and put produce spending at risk. 🥗 ⏸️ More than 6.5 million U.S. households stopped purchasing salad mixes and kits in the latest month ending July 26. 📉 Per-household spending in impacted states dropped 10.7% from the prior month. 💰 An estimated $280 million in consumer produce spending is at risk every month the outbreak continues. For produce brands and retailers, each additional month raises the stakes.

Smaller shopping lists, bigger kid influence. Families still need the back-to-school basics, but they’re becoming more selective about what makes the shopping list. ✏️ 📓 Planned purchases declined across core categories, including paper and notebooks, folders and binders, and backpacks or lunchboxes. 💻 This amplifies school supply quantity shifts identified in 2024 as students adopted electronics in the classroom. 🙋 47% of back-to-school shoppers say their children are very involved in back-to-school decisions, up from 41% last year. Winning the basket means balancing parents’ practical priorities with products that appeal to kids.

Store brands look different by retailer. Private label’s presence varies widely by retailer, reflecting different strategies, shopper expectations, and levels of owned-brand adoption. 🛍️ Trader Joe’s and Aldi rely most heavily on private label, with owned brands accounting for over three-quarters of overall sales volume 📦 Amazon’s private label brands account for 3% of sales volume 🚀 Amazon Grocery led private label brand growth after its October 2025 launch 🏆 Walmart brands are the largest private label brands, with Great Value purchased by 86% of U.S. households Private label strength depends on how well owned brands fit into each retailer’s broader shopping experience. Learn more: https://bit.ly/4c05tiJ

Numerator is headed to Prosper Forum! 🌴 Our team, including Brian Kay and Gretchen H., will be in Orlando, FL August 16–19, and we’re looking forward to connecting with restaurant leaders and industry peers throughout the week. If you’ll be at Prosper Forum too, we’d love to connect, exchange perspectives on the emerging consumer trends shaping the restaurant industry, and talk about the opportunities ahead. Will we see you there? Drop a comment or reach out to connect with our team ahead of the event.