2026 Emmy Predictions: Who Will Win at the Primetime Emmy Awards?

Editor’s note: As Emmys season rolls along, IndieWire will update this page with in-depth Emmy predictions from Awards Editor Marcus Jones. In addition to predictions for several key categories, there will be reporting on what shows are playing well with voters, TV Academy rules changes, interviews with potential nominees, and more.

The State of the Race

As final voting for the 2026 Primetime Emmys wraps, the more I know, the more I don’t know. But while that feeling can cause more anxiety around predicting the winners, it ultimately makes for a way more exciting awards ceremony.

What is currently weighing on me is which show will win Outstanding Comedy Series. If I look to the other categories to help make that determination, I can say that “Hacks” star Jean Smart is unassailable in the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series category, but Emmy voters’ propensity to award breakout performers or hot new shows will probably work in the favor of freshman Apple TV series “Widow’s Bay.” Star Matthew Rhys is having too good of a year, with an Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie nomination as well for Netflix’s “The Beast in Me,” to not be seen as the frontrunner of Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series. If the GIF of him going full Buster Keaton on a boat ride was enough to convince people to give the new horror comedy a try, it should be enough to convince TV Academy members to give him their vote.

As for Outstanding Supporting Actor and Actress in a Comedy Series, I lean toward predicting his co-stars Stephen Root and Kate O’Flynn will win. In regards to the former, the character actor has been on a real hot streak, having entered “Widow’s Bay” shortly after concluding his Emmy-nominated performance on the Emmy-winning HBO series “Barry.” He has the long-overdue narrative, while O’Flynn is highly regarded as one of this past TV season’s major discoveries. Keep in mind too that, as voting wraps, she is also already being discussed in awards circles as a possible Oscar nominee for the latest Mike Leigh film that will be at the Toronto International Film Festival. This moment feels too auspicious to count her out, even though she is nominated against recent Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series winner Hannah Einbinder, who is also more widely top of mind coming off of the success of her film “Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma.”

All that said, people really love “Hacks”! It broke an Emmy nominations record! The last time it won Outstanding Comedy Series, it was up against a dominant newcomer that won the other three Comedy acting categories. Coming out of everything it did the weekend before voting, from its live standup show to its final panel at the HBO Max Emmy Nominee Celebration, I’ve picked up the vibe that voters are excited to give the show a major send-off bigger than just Smart becoming the first performer to win an Emmy for every season of their show.

I thankfully can be more brief about Outstanding Drama Series. “The Pitt” campaign has been too strong, and they have rolled too deep, for them to not win even bigger this time. Noah Wyle and Katherine LaNasa are shoo-ins to once again win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series and Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series, respectively, with one easy indicator being that the two episodes of “The Pitt” nominated for Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series are huge showcases for both of them. 

I am a little iffier on whether it will pull off a win for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series. I’ve said before that if any of us are feeling any doubt, that probably means this is another year “The Morning Show’ diehards pull through for two-time winner Billy Crudup. And had “Task” been nominated for Outstanding Drama Series, I would’ve felt much stronger about star Tom Pelphrey’s Emmy chances. But even though “The Pitt” star Shawn Hatosy won an Emmy as a Guest Actor last year, I can start to see a consensus forming around breakout Patrick Ball as “The Pitt” actor to win Supporting Actor this year based on his character’s redemption arc.

As for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series, despite “Pluribus” losing some momentum in the back half of its awards campaign, we have gone too long with fans demanding star Rhea Seehorn win an Emmy (previously for her work on “Better Call Saul,” another Vince Gilligan collaboration) not to finally give her one. 

Getting Outstanding Movie out of the way real quick, the Netflix film “Remarkably Bright Creatures” is unsinkable. Star Sally Field even got an Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie nomination. And that category is actually unique in that it is the only acting category among this group where I don’t think the winner will be from one of the two shows I’m about to talk about. And, if anyone is winning an Emmy for the Ryan Murphy-produced FX series “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette,” it will be lead Sarah Pidgeon.

But overall, the true showdown in Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series is between nominations leader “Beef,” and slow burn HBO hit “DTF St. Louis.” When I did the GoldDerby panel predicting Emmy nominations, I felt like the only pundit secure in their belief that “DTF St. Louis” would be a major Emmys player. Chalk that up to the show having one of the better official FYC panels that I attended this season.

Now? I feel like the show may be suffering from success. Although all its actors were submitted in the supporting categories, it seems less certain that producer/star David Harbour will win Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series as expected when he is now not just nominated against frequent scene partner Jason Bateman, but also beloved character Richard Jenkins. Voters are very familiar with “Beef,” and its network home Netflix is very good at winning Emmys in the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series categories, so I lean toward voters honoring Charles Melton in that category.

I also think familiarity with “Beef” is working in star Oscar Isaac’s favor to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie, as the only other person he’s nominated against who stars in a show nominated for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series is “The Beast in Me” star Rhys, a less popular Netflix series (though again, there is a lot of positive energy around Rhys right now).

The strongest chance for “DTF St. Louis” to win an acting Emmy now is in the Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for four-time Emmy nominee Linda Cardellini, who is nominated against co-star Joy Sunday, but has a much bigger role on the series, and has been an enduring presence on prestige TV overall. She’s also nominated against Oscar winner Youn Yuh-jung for “Beef,” but if one continues the line of thinking that the award will go to someone who is “owed” an Emmy, then “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” is the real dark horse.

I predict many of the winners for categories we cover that fall more on the Creative Arts side, or in the first hour of the Primetime Emmys telecast, will be the predictable choices. For example, people were too excited about the return of “South Park” for it to lose the Emmy for Outstanding Animated Program this year. For Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series and Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special the early respective frontrunners “Mr. Scorsese” and “Marty, Life is Short” are still at the front of the pack. “Survivor” is putting up a really big fight in the race for the Outstanding Reality Competition Program Emmy, but “The Traitors” is still insanely popular, and has actually won the category before.

The biggest question mark, maybe of the whole Primetime Emmys ceremony, is whether or not every Outstanding Variety Series nominee will win. Many of the shows have goodwill from what is going on in the current political moment, be it the recently concluded “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” which was the sole winner of the category last year, or “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” for a season challenged by an indefinite hiatus. More importantly, if all five nominees win, how will the speeches work? Only a couple more weeks till we find out.

The 78th annual Primetime Emmy Awards are scheduled to take place on Monday, September 14, live on NBC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT. “Law & Order: SVU” star Mariska Hargitay will serve as host of the awards ceremony.

For more insight on the shows and stars we expect to be contenders this Emmys season, see below. IndieWire’s Emmy predictions will be refreshed throughout the race, so bookmark this page for the most accurate power rankings out there, and make sure to follow IndieWire on X, Facebook, and Instagram for all the latest Emmys news.

To read more analysis of the 2026 Emmys race, check out our new newsletter, “IndieWire’s The Lead Up,” where our Awards Editor Marcus Jones takes readers on the awards trail, interviewing key figures responsible for some of the most compelling series from this season, and offering predictions on who will win. Subscribe here to receive the newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday.