Kevin Stevens

So PJM capacity prices hit the price cap again, which was a surprise to no one who has been observing the market. As we've written about extensively, the only solution to the cost problem while also getting new supply online is to channel revenues to new entry without providing revenues to the rest of the supply stack. A few notes: * To those talking about extending the price caps: you fundamentally cannot implement a price cap below the cost of new entry and then ask why new entry isn't coming into the market * To those listening to what the IPP and generation associations are saying: they have a clear incentive to keep capacity prices high, so you need to read their comments through that lens. * To those assessing the future revenue potential of generation assets in PJM: you need to be aware that it is politically untenable for prices to rise to the cost of new entry and stay there. * To those blaming datacenters: load growth was coming and this was going to happen no matter what...datacenters just accelerated the underlying reality. Even with sufficient new supply to meet demand, capacity prices STILL have to rise to the level needed to support the new supply. SUMMARIZING: high capacity prices are both necessary to incentivize new generation and unavoidable in an era of load growth. And it is politically unpalatable to allow prices to stay high, but economically impossible for them to stay low. The only solution is to provide direct financial support to new entry outside of the capacity market. https://lnkd.in/gXKXe4Ck

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Ampica Weekly Energy Insight | Week of March 16 Large load growth — especially data centers — is now driving energy policy, transmission investment, and future power prices across Ohio and PJM. This week’s headlines showed: • Regulators challenging utility load forecasts • Policymakers debating who pays for grid upgrades • New generation projects being proposed to support large loads • Markets shifting toward “bring your own power” for data centers The takeaway: Energy strategy is becoming a competitive advantage. Companies that actively manage procurement, capacity exposure, and efficiency will be better positioned as these market changes unfold. #EnergyMarkets #PJM #OhioEnergy #EnergyStrategy #Manufacturing #DataCenters #Electricity #EnergyCosts #Grid #Ampica

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PJM released the results of its annual capacity bidding process yesterday and the results were, as expected, higher energy prices. The final numbers came in at $329.17 per megawatt day, a 22% increase over 2024 which was an 800% increase from 2023. PJM is also slated to retire 15-30% of its generation between now at 2035 meaning the problem will only get worse if something doesn’t give. h/t Grid Status for the chart More from me here: https://lnkd.in/gR6iQTTB #energy #datacenters #ai

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Prepay energy helps to solve a utility’s debt issues. E Source recently conducted our industry arrearage benchmark survey with 35+ utilities. Customer debt levels are running 2 to 3x the historical and are projected to go up significantly. Everyone is asking us what they should do to manage affordability and customer debt. One answer is implementing a voluntary prepay energy offering. As you can see below, customer interest in prepay energy is at all-time high, with almost a third of respondents saying they are extremely or very interested. Why? Because customers struggling with high bills and rising rates WANT alternatives. In turn, utilities have been using payment arrangements that default 66 percent of the time as the primary means to collect what is outstanding. Prepay has a track record of collecting 90 percent of what’s outstanding within a year AND customers are significantly more satisfied. Feel free to to reach out to me for more info on prepay energy and arrearage management. Ben Nathan Patrick Woodworth Jeffrey Daigle Bob Cooke David Conn Jeffrey Weiser Bob Crenshaw Hunter Horgan

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ROI-Focused: Where Does the Revenue Come From? HEFTEG isn’t a “hope it scales” clean energy play. It’s a multi-stream revenue engine built into a modular, self-fueling system. Primary Revenue: * Baseload electricity (regulated or independent sales) * Clean hydrogen (fuel cells, industry, mobility) * Medical-grade oxygen (healthcare, water treatment, aerospace) Secondary Revenue: * Technology licensing (WIPO + US patent protected) * Strategic deployment and service partnerships * Carbon credit generation Timeline to Revenue: * Deployment: 18–24 months * Fuel costs: $0 (internal electrolysis) * Waste costs: $0 (no hazardous byproducts) * Payback Period: Optimized based on power pricing and hydrogen markets In an industry dominated by 10-year builds and political volatility, HEFTEG is simple: Lower CAPEX. Multi-market sales. Faster revenue. The returns aren’t speculative — they’re structural. #HEFTEG #ROI #ClimateInvestment #Hydrogen #CleanEnergy #RevenueStreams #EnergyInfrastructure #TransElectric

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📊 Transformer Replacements: A Growing Challenge for Utilities Each week at Crux Energy Consulting, we spotlight insights from Halcyon's What’s Happening in Energy newsletter, which is always a great source of interesting tidbits from US regulatory filings. This week, what stood out was a chart from Central Hudson's five-year capital investment plan. It highlights a pressing issue for many utilities: the aging transformer fleet. More than one-third of Central Hudson’s transformers are over 50 years old. That’s a staggering stat and one that underscores just how urgent the need for replacement is across the grid. These replacements are becoming increasingly expensive. 📈 On page 2, I've reshared a previous Crux Energy post that visualizes how transformer prices have spiked, due in part to COVID, inflation, supply constraints, and material costs. And it doesn’t stop there: with tariffs on steel and newly announced tariffs on copper, those price pressures are only going to intensify. This is a clear example of how aging infrastructure, material supply challenges, and policy decisions converge, driving up the cost of keeping the lights on. #energyinfrastructure #utilities #gridmodernization #transformers #energycosts #tariffs #cruxenergyconsulting

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Via ESN: " Wisconsin utilities opt for solar-plus-storage project acquisitions over ‘debt-like PPAs’: Two investor-owned utilities (IOUs) are seeking regulatory approval to acquire an under-development solar and storage project located in Waushara County, Wisconsin.  " #EnergyStorage #Energy #BatteryStorage

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PJM rates just jumped another 22%. Last year? Up 20%. Grid volatility isn’t going away—and for large energy consumers, reactive isn’t a strategy. That’s why I’m proud to share that Material Sciences Corporation (MSC) doubled its demand response performance with Sanalife’s E360 Energy Management Software. They didn’t play defense. They optimized. ✔️ Real-time substation-level intelligence ✔️ Automated demand response ✔️ Increased uptime and revenue Energy is no longer just about compliance; it’s about control. See how MSC doubled its DR performance and took control of its energy future: Learn More: https://lnkd.in/gkGQf8zT    #Leadership #Sanalife #DemandResponse #EnergyManagement #EnergyDemand #Capacity #LoadForecast #ElectricGrid #RatePayers #EnergyCrisis #AI 

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We ran Illinois' new energy bill (CRGA) through Common Forge's tech platform, instantly surfacing the way it aligns with broader energy sector trends around generation, grid stability, and utility rate mitigation: - Generation: nuclear moratorium lifted for new generation - Grid Stability: 3,000 MW storage target to strengthen the grid - Rate Mitigation: utilities directed to formalize VPP programs at the grid edge. Curious how this bill and and the 2021 CEJA it replaces map to your portfolio? We'd be happy to walk you through how our platform review the text.

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2026 resource plans are being written in quicksand.   In the last 30 days: → PJM revised peak load forecasts DOWN by several GW (after years of "sky-high growth" projections) → 13 governors locked in a capacity price cap with federal backing → New fast-track interconnection rules are changing the competitive landscape   If you're documenting DR capacity or filing an IRP right now, you're navigating three simultaneous variables: load assumptions that swing mid-cycle, political caps on cost recovery, and interconnection timelines that just got rewritten.   The old playbook was: forecast load → model resources → document capacity → file.   The new reality: all three inputs are moving while you're trying to document.   Utilities will need documentation systems flexible enough to adjust in real-time.   Which variable is creating the most planning uncertainty for you right now—load, cost recovery, or interconnection?

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The $200,000 tie-line upgrade most PJM developers don’t budget......... Many Energy developers model for one outcome: PJM upgrades at the Point of Interconnection. But in parts of New Jersey, Maryland, and Virginia, the bigger risk often shows up somewhere else: "The Affected System" That is the neighbouring grid that PJM has to coordinate with when your project touches a tie line or shared facility. This could potentially add an extra $200k to your CAPEX down the line. Why does it matter if my project touches a tie line or a share facility? > You can “pass” PJM interconnection queue but still fail the neighbour system. > A Phase III result may say “no PJM upgrades,” while the affected system later requires a major upgrade on its side. >That “neighbour bill” can arrive late, after you have spent time and money and told your investors the plan. What can you do about it realistically? When you underwrite a PJM project. Run two upgrade cases: 1. PJM upgrades at your POI 2. An affected-system upgrade on a tie line (Otherwise plan for 7 to 8 figures) Then ask yourself: does the project still hit your Internal Rate of Return(IRR) and Commercial Operations Date (COD)? An easy way to remember this is, “Does my project affect any other system and how soon can i find out if it does?” ------ These are the kinda of interesting problems that keep us awake.

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Utility bills are going up! As capacity prices rise due to power plant retirements, higher demand, and extreme weather, ComEd customers will start to see a 10–15% increase in bills starting June. This shift highlights the urgent need to accelerate renewable energy adoption. Solar and storage can help stabilize energy costs and grid resilience. What are you doing to manage energy use? Let’s work together toward a cleaner, more resilient energy future. #RenewableEnergy #EnergyEfficiency #SustainableFuture #Solar #SolarEnergy

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Haynes Boone Project Finance Partner Conrad Purcell recently joined Modo Energy’s "Transmission" podcast to discuss what makes a battery storage project bankable, how grid connection can dictate project timelines and what it takes to bring a battery project to financial close. Listen to the full episode at the link in the comments.

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Today the U.S. treasury posted new guideline on Energy Community adder for solar and battery storage, this covers both the MSAs and Coal Closure areas within the E.C. adder for investment tax credits. the following is attached for your review.

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We need to build balanced resource portfolios connected by a robust transmission network. Here are some recommendations for moving that process forward. #trannsmission #renewables #storage #resourceplanning Daymark Energy Advisors

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Protecting the Grid and the Consumer: PJM to Extend Capacity Price Caps ⚡️🏛️ In a significant move for the U.S. energy market, the PJM Interconnection is set to extend its capacity auction price caps for an additional two years. This development, confirmed by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, marks a critical intervention in the nation’s largest power grid. The decision comes at a pivotal moment. As the grid faces the dual pressures of aging infrastructure retirements and a massive surge in demand from data centers and electrification, price volatility has become a primary concern for regulators and businesses alike. What this means for the energy landscape: * Market Stability: By extending the cap, PJM aims to prevent "price shocks" that could result from tightening supply margins. * Investment Signals: While the cap protects consumers, the industry is watching closely to see how this affects the incentive for new generation projects—particularly renewables and gas—needed to ensure long-term reliability. * Regulatory Alignment: The move highlights the increasing collaboration between grid operators and state leadership to balance affordability with the clean energy transition. As PJM navigates these complex market dynamics, the balance between "market-based signals" and "consumer protection" remains the most debated topic in the power sector today. We are here to help. Review your facility's energy plan here: https://lnkd.in/e3Ck8_zu #EnergyMarkets #PJM #PowerGrid #Utilities #EnergyPolicy #DataCenters #GridReliability #Pennsylvania #ElectricityPrices #CleanEnergyTransition Read more about this here: https://lnkd.in/eAdmBV45

Excited to be co-presenting at T&D World Live this September on Dominion Energy's Transmission Hosting Capacity Platform! The increasing volume of requests for transmission-level hosting capacity studies presents a significant operational challenge for a lot of utilities. The existing methods, usually manual scenario-driven studies, is no longer sustainable. The folks at Dominion Energy new there had to be a better way, and pulled us in to help. The result of this initiative is their Transmission Hosting Capacity Analysis tool. This proprietary platform automates computationally expensive studies and establishes a much-needed standard for analysis. It empowers teams to efficiently evaluate optimal locations for incremental load, supporting data-driven infrastructure planning and development. If this sounds interesting to you, I hope to see you there!

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