Stalemate

Welcome back to the MBN Friday Briefing, our weekly roundup of our strongest reporting on issues shaping developments in the Middle East and Washington. 

Time is the only thing that seems to be moving forward in the war with Iran. As we wade into its third month, the trajectory appears ambiguous, the end elusive. While a fragile ceasefire remains, the negotiations in Islamabad have stalled, and the blockade of Hormuz continues to upend the global oil and gas markets. Meanwhile, another war is raging almost uncontrollably inside Iran — that of soaring inflation, acute currency depreciation, and massive unemployment. For a closer look at the country’s battered economy, check out the latest edition of MBN’s Iran Briefing.

Among the stories ahead, we examine how Iran is working to circumvent the U.S. blockade on its ports, why Saudi Arabia has re-engaged in peace talks with the Houthis in Yemen, and how Iraq finally settled on a consensus candidate for prime minister. 

The Friday Briefing is also published in Arabic. If you were forwarded this newsletter, subscribe here. We’d love to hear from you at thebriefing@mbn-news.com.

This Week On MBN

Tehran Skirts Blockade via Iraq 

To bypass a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian imports that was imposed in April, Iran is expanding land-based smuggling routes through Iraq. MBN’s Dalshad Hussein reports that local networks run by Iran-backed militias and overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) move fuel, weapons, and sensitive military components through border crossings, which aren’t supervised by the Iraqi government. 

Read the article here

Nuclear Blind Spots

For the past 50 years, the world has relied on one central document to prevent the spread of nuclear arms: the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. But as global powers modernize instead of disarm, the treaty’s limits are being tested. Currently, diplomats are convening in New York for the NPT Review Conference to decide whether this framework can still work. Leila Bazzi, MBN’s Editor-in-Chief, interviews Henry Sokolski, a former U.S. Deputy at the Pentagon, who argues that treaty loopholes allow countries like Iran to reach near-weapons capability within days or weeks.

Read the article here and watch the video here

War Shock Slows Gulf Growth

The International Monetary Fund has sharply downgraded growth rates for the Gulf economies. The war with Iran has caused disruptions across energy, trade, and investment in the Gulf. MBN’s Sakina Abdallah explains that rising shipping, insurance, and financing costs are offsetting any gains from higher energy prices. She says the crisis could incur losses of nearly $200 billion for the GCC countries. 

Read the article here

Riyadh Engages Yemen’s Houthis

Saudi Arabia is meeting the Houthis of Yemen at a time when tensions with Iran are spilling across the region. The timing of the meeting is important, as the UN-sponsored peace talks for Yemen have been sidelined for some time. The fact that Riyadh decided to re-engage in these talks with the Houthis, widely seen as part of Iran’s regional proxy, carries weight. The Houthis have already entered the Iran conflict by targeting Israel and threatening key shipping routes. As MBN’s Ezat Wagdi explains, instead of trying to defeat the Houthis, Riyadh now seems focused on keeping them contained and ensuring stability at its southern border.

Read the article here

Meet Iraq’s New Prime Minister

In a sudden breakthrough, Iraq’s ruling Coordination Framework named little-known businessman Ali al-Zaydi as its consensus candidate for prime minister. The move followed months of internal rifts, with rivals stepping aside to avoid further paralysis. MBN’s Ghassan Taqi reports that Washington appears to have no objections to al-Zaydi, clearing a key hurdle that derailed previous contenders.

Read the article here

Iran Embeds in Hezbollah’s Core 

In this video, MBN’s Randa Jebai details a significant escalation in Iran’s direct role inside Hezbollah’s leadership. She says intelligence shows that a permanent IRGC advisor is now embedded within Hezbollah’s top command structure, overseeing key military and financial decisions. 

Watch the video here

Hezbollah’s Hidden Gold

Amid the war with Israel, Hezbollah is quietly storing gold in underground vaults beneath civilian buildings. Due to a collapsed banking system, Lebanese citizens are using their personal gold assets as collateral to obtain small cash loans from Hezbollah’s financial arm, the Benevolent Loan Association. MBN’s Asrar Chbaro says the core question for thousands of Lebanese is simple yet urgent: will their gold be returned once they repay their loans?

Read the article here

Closer: No Exit Strategy

“The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected, and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either.” 

                                 –German Chancellor Friedrich Merz – April 27, 2026