Global Supply Chain Management

Hedge funds including Anchorage Capital Advisors and Squarepoint Capital LLP have been building positions in cobalt by buying up physical material, as tumbling spot prices and a more liquid futures market create new trading opportunities in the battery metal. Cobalt is a relatively tiny and specialized market compared with commodities like copper or oil, and prices have dropped to the lowest in more than seven years as the market is flooded with production from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia. The hedge funds’ moves are the latest sign of financial players getting involved in physical metal trades, as money flows back into commodities while oversupplied metal markets create opportunities to make a profit by buying at cheap spot prices. It’s also reviving memories from almost a decade ago, when funds including Pala Investments took advantage of weak cobalt prices to buy up piles of metal in a bet on the nascent energy transition. (The bet paid off, as prices soared over the next couple of years.) At the time, the absence of a liquid futures market meant that buying real-world cobalt was one of the only ways available to bet on rising prices. Today, the situation looks a little different. Cobalt futures trading has taken off on CME Group’s Comex exchange, creating a way for traders to hedge their physical positions in the newly liquid futures market. The ballooning surplus has also led to a widening gap between depressed spot prices and higher-priced futures on the Comex, with contracts for delivery in a year’s time having traded as much as 20% higher than spot prices. Yvonne Yue Li Mark Burton Archie Hunter #cobalt #metals #commoditytrading #hedgefunds https://lnkd.in/enMdDQTg

The US just proposed a $2.5 billion strategic minerals reserve. It won't fix the problem, but it might tell you where the problem actually is. Bipartisan legislation introduced last week would create a Strategic Resilience Reserve, a stockpile for lithium, rare earths, cobalt, and graphite managed by a US Federal Reserve-style board. The goal is to stabilise prices, buffer supply disruptions, and counter China's influence over global mineral markets. This is a policy admission that the market can't solve the problem on its own. Not because there isn't enough geology in the ground, but because there's no functional price discovery when one player controls both the tap and the valve. A $2.5 billion buffer sounds big until you realise it's a rounding error compared to what's actually required to rebuild domestic processing, refining, and conversion capacity. Stockpiling doesn't build mines, It doesn't permit smelters, It doesn't fix the gap between "critical" rhetoric and actual capital deployment. What it does do is acknowledge that Western mineral supply chains are structurally fragile and that fragility is now a national security problem, not just a market inefficiency. If this passes, it won't change commodity fundamentals overnight. But it does signal that policy is starting to catch up to reality. The real question is whether Western governments are willing to follow through with the harder work: permitting reform, processing infrastructure, and long-term offtake agreements that actually de-risk capital. Strategic reserves buy time. They don't build supply. For more of my takes on the resource industry sign up to my weekly newsletter www.kamoacap.com #Mining #CriticalMinerals #Resources #CapitalMarkets #Geopolitics #SupplyChains Source: Mining.com - "US lawmakers propose $2.5B critical minerals reserve" (January 15, 2026)

A New Chapter in the Global Cobalt Market? The Democratic Republic of Congo (#DRC), which supplies over 70% of the world’s cobalt, is reportedly considering asking Indonesia to limit its #cobalt exports. If successful, this could mark the beginning of a more cartel-like approach to battery metals, similar to #OPEC’s influence on oil—a shift that could push prices higher and disrupt global supply chains. This move comes against a backdrop of growing #geopoliticaltensions over #criticalminerals. The #US and DRC are in talks over a minerals-for-security agreement, where Washington would provide military support in exchange for access to the DRC’s vast mineral reserves. At the same time, China is increasing state funding for mineral exploration to achieve resource self-sufficiency amid intensifying #competition with the U.S. The DRC's potential collaboration with Indonesia to limit cobalt #exports could further complicate the geopolitical landscape, affecting supply chains and international relations. Battery manufacturers and electric vehicle makers may need to brace for higher costs and supply uncertainties as resource-rich nations assert more control over their critical minerals. This development highlights the intricate interplay between natural #resourcemanagement and #geopolitics. As nations vie for control over essential minerals, the outcomes of these strategic decisions will have far-reaching implications for industries and economies #worldwide. #Commodity #Trade #NaturalResources

The Democratic Republic of Congo (#DRC) has announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports, effective February 22, 2025, aiming to address the oversupply and declining prices in the global market. This decision has led to significant reactions in the industry, particularly in China. Key Developments: - Market Reactions: Chinese #cobalt stocks experienced notable gains following the DRC's announcement. Shares in Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co. surged by up to 17% in Shenzhen, while Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. saw an increase of up to 7.8%. Conversely, CMOC Group Ltd., which operates major mines in the DRC, faced a 2% decline in Hong Kong trading. - Industry Concerns: The sudden export ban has introduced uncertainty and potential disruptions in the cobalt supply chain. Ian Liu, cobalt procurement director at CNGR Advanced Material Co., expressed concerns over securing material and emphasized the need for a long-term mechanism to support cobalt prices, rather than abrupt export halts. - Global Supply Implications: The DRC's suspension could reduce global cobalt supply by approximately 20,000 tons monthly. However, existing inventories are expected to mitigate immediate shortages. This situation may also present opportunities for other producers, such as Indonesia, to increase their market share during the suspension period. As the DRC accounts for about 77% of global cobalt production, this export ban is poised to have significant short-term effects on the market. Stakeholders are closely monitoring the situation to assess its impact on supply chains and pricing dynamics.

African export restrictions on crucial battery metals are dealing a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines there to dominate supplies. Chinese miners have plowed money into Africa to secure feedstocks for their refineries and factories back home amid expectation of surging demand for minerals used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems. While other parts of the world pushed back against Chinese efforts to gain a foothold, African nations still largely welcome those investments. But things are becoming more difficult. The Democratic Republic of Congo began cobalt export curbs in February 2025 to reduce a glut and capture more value from its output, while Zimbabwe last month banned shipments of lithium concentrates to encourage local processing. The moves quickly raised prices, which are currently at or near multiyear highs. That’s creating a predicament for Chinese miners, which for now cannot reap the full benefit of their assets there. https://lnkd.in/dWgBh_xu with Annie Lee

Last week, the Transition Security Project released "Mining for War: Assessing the Pentagon’s Mineral Stockpile" and the findings are honestly wild. The Pentagon is now planning to stockpile almost 7,500 tonnes of cobalt. That is enough cobalt to build 80.2 gigawatt hours of battery capacity, more than double today’s US grid scale energy storage. The cobalt and graphite targeted for military stockpiles alone could produce 100,000 electric buses. For context, the entire US currently operates fewer than 6,500. Instead of accelerating decarbonisation, these materials are being funnelled into Cold War-style stockpiles designed for an ever-expanding military machine. And this is happening at a time when the Pentagon already absorbs one trillion USD per year, nearly 40% of global military spending, and remains the world’s largest institutional consumer of fossil fuels. This is resource governance driven by fear and militarised competition, not by social need or planetary limits. The consequences are predictable: more extraction, more destruction, more geopolitical tension, and fewer minerals available for the transition technologies that actually matter. The core question raised by the report is simple: who gets priority access to transition minerals: civilian decarbonisation, or the military? And what does that choice mean for people living near mines, for global justice, and for the climate timeline we are already struggling to meet? As Europe moves forward with ReSourceEU, joint stockpiling, defence driven demand aggregation and looser safeguards, we should be paying very close attention. Is this the trajectory we want for the European Union as well? Stockpiling transition minerals for defence industries while weakening due diligence, bypassing democratic oversight and accelerating extractive pressure? Because the US example makes one thing painfully clear: when militaries get first claim on minerals, the energy transition loses. Every time. Would love to hear thoughts from others working on raw materials, defence industrial policy, and environment. https://lnkd.in/efid63ye Climate and Community Institute

Cobalt prices soared on Monday (March 10) as concerns over supplies mounted after Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) declared force majeure on deliveries because of a Democratic Republic of Congo ban on exports of the battery material. Cobalt trading on China's Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange was paused after prices jumped nearly 12% to about 240 yuan per kg, the highest since October. European prices also climbed, with standard grade cobalt warehoused in Rotterdam rising to $12.25 per Ib on March 7, up from $10.80 on March 4 and $9.95 on February 24, data from pricing information agency Fastmarkets showed. Last month Congo's government suspended #cobalt exports for four months to rein in oversupply and large surpluses, which had sent prices to nine-year lows around $10 a Ib, or $22,000 a metric ton. ERG declared force majeure -typically invoked when unforeseen events prevent a company from fulfilling its contractual obligations -on cobalt deliveries from its Metalkol operation in Congo because of the export ban, sources told Reuters mast week. Luxembourg-based ERG is the third-largest cobalt producing company in Congo, which itself is the world's top producer of the mineral used to make the lithium-ion #batteries that power electric vehicles. Two European coblat traders said the ERG force majeure triggered the price surge. "The Chinese are not (selling) metal. There is a growing realization that Congo means business," one of the traders said on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the media. "The are holding on to what they have. ERG's force majeure has made them sit up and take notice." ERG's #Metalkol operation is estimated by Darton Commodities to have produced about 19,000 metric tons of cobalt in hydroxide, about 9% of total production in Congo last year. Metalkol's cobalt production amounts to 7% of the global total at more than 280,000 tons last year, according to Darton, a specialist supplier of cobalt #metal products. Congo's cobalt export ban will be reviewed in three months and could be modified or terminated, depending on the results. The #Congo government eventually plans to introduce cobalt export quotas that will be negotiated during the #export suspension period, sources said. Other top producers in Congo include London-listed miner #Glencore and China's CMOC Group. 19.03.25. https://lnkd.in/eaiBT-MZ The DR Congo🇨🇩 is an #AfCFTA member country #Minerals #Metals #EV #Markets #GDP #Growth #Economy #Expots #GlobalTrade #WorldEconomy