UFC

Who has the edge between two two fighters making their UFC debuts?...

Back the better grappler in Page vs. Ruziboev...

Will Fares Ziam's pace be the difference vs. Sola Axel?...

These guys are both early in their MMA careers, but they do have kickboxing backgrounds, so I expect a striking match. Levi Rodrigues is taking this fight on short notice after a quick turnaround. It looks like the UFC is trying to set up Liu Ce with a favorable matchup in front of his home crowd, and I’ll take him to win by KO.

This is a rebooking after their first fight ended in a ‘No Contest’ following an accidental low blow. Although Sumudaerji was starting to take over before the foul occurred, the fight was more competitive than most remember. Public perception seems to be that Alex Perez was getting dominated, but two of the three judges actually awarded him the first round. Perez is a flyweight veteran with high level experience who can come back with adjustments. Sumudaerji’s rangy striking is tough to close the distance on, but Perez’s pressure striking and grappling game could get to him this time around. Perez closed as the betting favorite in their first fight, so I don’t feel that 1.5 solid rounds from Sumudaerji warrant this line move.

This is a rematch that ended in a no contest, but I picked Alex Perez last time because of his wrestling and submission skills. He just couldn't land takedowns in that last matchup, and he was getting picked apart on the feet. I am going to change my pick this time to Su Mudaerji by knockout in front of his home country.

Reach is something I look at first in the UFC even if it's not as important as boxing, and man does the USA's Sean Woodson have that advantage Saturday in China with a whopping 10-inch reach edge (and seven inches in height) over Aussie Jack Jenkins. That's like fighting Stretch Armstrong. Tapology ranks Woodson 32 spots better among all featherweights. I've never heard of a 10-inch reach edge among little dudes. At heavyweight maybe. If Jenkins were that much better a grappler, then reach and height may not matter but that's not the case.

Rei Tsuruya’s grappling advantage makes him the rightful favorite in this matchup, but -800 is ridiculous. Kevin Borjas is coming off an upset win in which he was a +450 underdog, and sports books are still underrating his boxing. Tsuruya’s takedowns and Ju-Jitsu game are super tricky, so if he laces up a body triangle Borjas could be in deep trouble. Still, I feel obligated to take a small shot on Borjas. If he is able to keep the fight standing and force Tsuruya to strike with him, these odds will look foolish.

Namsrai Batbayar is the Road to UFC 4 winner, and he is a dangerous fighter with all 10 of his wins coming by finish. I do think he will need a finish because Lima looks like the more skilled fighter overall. I like him to dictate where the fight takes place and win minutes. I’ll take Lima to survive the big shots early and find a late finish of his own, or win a decisive decision.

We've been of the belief that Anthony Hernandez is slightly overrated, and never more so than when he was absurdly priced at -300 versus Sean Strickland in his last bout. Hernandez relies on his relentless wrestling pace and sinister demeanor to break his opponents. But when his target fires back, he doesn't handle it well. While we agree that a longer fight favors Hernandez, we're not sure it reaches the later rounds. Gregory Rodrigues is an explosive striker and world-class grappler himself. Hernandez won't be hard to find and we think there's major value on the underdog to win with another explosive finish.

Vitor Petrino is an explosive athlete that has looked solid since moving up to heavyweight division, but I think Serghei Spivac's grappling game could give him problems. Petrino has the power advantage and may find the knockout, but if he doesn't I favor Spivac's experience and wrestling. Spivac has also improved his striking game, and was highly competitive on the feet against primary boxers in his last two fights. Petrino has been in close fights with lesser competition, so I'll side with the veteran Spivac.

Jones has looked much improved in his second UFC stint, going 3-0 with two performance bonuses since rejoining the promotion. Even so, he has thrived against modest competition and we believe this price is way too steep against a efficient striker such as Mederos, who has gone 3-0-1 in the UFC against decent opposition.

I expect a finish either way in this fight. Vitor Petrino is the better striker with one-shot KO power. Serghei Spivac has improved his striking, but he relies more on grappling and getting submissions. Whoever dictates where this fight takes place should get a finish. I’ll take Petrino to stuff Spivac's takedown attempts and record an early KO.

Brazil's Vitor "Bobby" Petrino has just two losses in 16 career pro fights and those came back-to-back while at light heavyweight in 2024. But since moving to heavyweight, he's 3-0. Petrino has a 71% finish rate in his career and four of his seven in the UFC ended before the judges. He should have the power and speed edge and Moldova's Serghei Spivac, who is 1-2 in his past three, the grappling edge. Tapology ranks Petrino 13 spots better among all heavyweights. There are some legit UFC models out there, and they generally give Petrino around a 62% shot of winning (equates to -163).

On Anthony Hernandez’s best day, he can beat anybody with his wrestling, pace, and pressure. He is a really good grappler and will have the cardio edge in this fight, but he has to grapple. Gregory Rodrigues will be the better striker with more power. He is also a good wrestler and grappler. If Rodrigues can stuff takedowns and stay on his feet, I think he knocks Hernandez out.