Azeem Azhar (@azeem) / X

Pinned

The GenAI economy has generated $110 billion in sales over the past 12 months. It is growing fast. On an annualized basis, the revenue run rate exceeds $175 billion. These numbers took us several months to construct, and as far as we know, it’s the first bottom-up, deduplicated

A frontier AI model is a rapidly depreciating asset. This is true even at the highest GPQA Diamond grades, where a new model's pricing power quickly vanishes. Data: exponentialview.co/p/data-to-star…

Weird sleight of hand here. Why compare 2030 depreciation expense with 2026 profits? Why not look at analysts track record to see whether they are any good at these longer range EBITDA forecasts? Why not ask whether the firms themselves are willing to sacrifice some near terms

Peter Berezin

@PeterBerezinBCA

Aug 27

Hyperscaler depreciation expense is set to jump to over $500 billion by 2030, equal to the expected operating profits of all five companies in 2026. But don’t worry, EBITDA margins are going to soar, so the ratio of depreciation to EBITDA will barely rise 😉

AI models get around ten times cheaper each year. Yet company AI bills keep rising. Here's why...

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