Reliance flags trade risks, demand-supply issue amid Trump tariff threats, geopolitical uncertainty

Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries on Thursday flagged geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties as key risks that could disrupt global trade flows and upset demand-supply balances, particularly in its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business.

In its latest annual report, the company noted that while global oil demand is expected to remain strong, despite rising EV adoption, the supply chain disruptions linked to tariffs and conflicts could create volatility. “Continuing geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainties may affect trade flows and demand‑supply balance,” Reliance said.

"Key factors to watch in 2025 would be stagnating demand in China (EV penetration), aviation growth in Asia, geopolitical uncertainties and new economic policies (tariffs & sanctions)," the company stated in its annual report.

US imposes additional tariff on India
The warning comes days after US President Donald Trump issued an executive order slapping an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, taking total duties on many items to 50%. The move was seen as a response to India’s continued import of discounted Russian crude.

According to multiple reports, the heightened tariffs are expected to hurt several of India’s key export sectors including textiles, gems and jewellery, seafood (especially shrimp), leather and footwear, animal products, chemicals, and machinery. These industries, many of which are part of India’s broader manufacturing and MSME base, now face a significant competitiveness challenge in the US market.

India exported goods worth over $86 billion to the US in FY25, and the new duties will apply to nearly two-thirds of that basket. With both Reliance and global analysts warning of potential trade distortions, all eyes are now on the upcoming India-US trade negotiations, scheduled for later this month.