NYT News ServiceAs President Donald Trump escalates trade tensions with India, analysts warn that a more critical challenge may be approaching: US work visas. While tariffs on Indian goods have grabbed headlines, India’s long-standing access to the American job market—especially for tech professionals—now appears vulnerable to shifting US political winds.
India has been a major recipient of US work visas, notably the H-1B program that powers its $250 billion IT services industry. These visas, along with the offshoring of business and software services, have enabled Indian firms to scale globally. But they are also politically sensitive in the US, where Trump’s base has long criticised them for taking away American jobs.
“Relations with India risk becoming a football in American domestic politics,” said Evan Feigenbaum, a former senior US State Department official under the George W. Bush administration.
“Issues that directly touch India are among the most partisan and explosive in Washington, including immigration and deportation, H-1B visas for tech workers, offshoring and overseas manufacturing by US companies, and technology sharing and co-innovation with foreigners,” he wrote in a LinkedIn post.
Uncertainty over India’s tech workforce ties
India’s longstanding access to the US work visa system—especially H-1B visas—now faces mounting pressure. Recent moves by the Trump administration signal a sustained tightening of visa pathways that have long powered India’s tech talent export.
The Trump administration has signalled potential changes that could reshape visa allocations. A proposed rule would scrap the current lottery system for H-1B visas in favor of a wage‑based “weighted selection process,” favouring applicants with higher salaries. This shift could marginalize early‑career professionals, including Indian graduates transitioning from student status.
New procedural hurdles are also emerging: enhanced social media vetting has prompted the halt of new student‑visa appointments, raising anxiety among Indian students planning to study in the US. Moreover, the government’s introduction of visa bonds—requiring applicants to post up to $15,000 for tourist and business visas—could extend to India if it is added to the pilot list alongside countries with high overstay rates.
Within the US political landscape, anti‑visa rhetoric is gaining strength. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon has denounced the H‑1B program, advocating for post‑graduation visa limits and even an "exit visa" requirement. Meanwhile, far‑right Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has publicly called for an outright end to H‑1B visas for Indian nationals, echoing nativist sentiments that could influence policy direction.
Also Read| H-1B tension rises amid US lawmaker’s call to curb Indian tech hiring
New tariffs and oil pressure deepen the rift
Trump this week signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% duty on Indian imports—citing India’s continued purchases of Russian oil as justification. This follows an earlier 25% tariff and marks a sharp escalation in trade pressure.
India’s opposition parties and sections of the public have urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resist what they describe as pressure tactics from Washington. Trump’s recent suggestion that India could instead buy oil from Pakistan has further inflamed sentiment in New Delhi.
In response, India called the new duties “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” and said it would “take all actions necessary to protect its national interests.” But officials privately acknowledge that India lacks strong economic leverage—unlike China, which controls critical supplies such as rare earth minerals.
Also Read| Trump’s former adviser calls for total ban on H-1B visa and restrictions on international students
Strategic ties at risk amid domestic politics
Despite closer defence and intelligence cooperation, the two countries are now navigating a phase that some experts describe as the most difficult since the US sanctioned India over its 1998 nuclear tests.
“India is now in a trap: because of Trump's pressure, Modi will reduce India's oil purchases from Russia, but he cannot publicly admit to doing so for fear of looking like he's surrendering to Trump's blackmail,” Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Reuters.
In recent days, Indian refiners have begun reducing Russian oil imports, Reuters reported.
Trouble ahead for visas
For India, the larger concern is what comes next. Trump’s past record and current rhetoric indicate that visa restrictions could be revived, especially targeting sectors seen as exporting American jobs. Any changes to H-1B policy would directly hit Indian professionals and outsourcing firms, many of which rely heavily on access to US clients and workers on temporary visas.
While trade disputes may be negotiated, visa access is harder to insulate from political pressure, especially during an election cycle in the US. With immigration, jobs, and foreign technology partnerships becoming flashpoints in domestic debates, India’s pathway to the American labour market could come under fresh scrutiny.
What began as a tariff dispute could now turn into a broader realignment—one that challenges not just trade ties but the human capital link that has anchored US-India relations for decades.
Independence Day 2025
Modi signals new push for tech independence with local chipsBefore Trump, British used tariffs to kill Indian textileBank of Azad Hind: When Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose gave India its own currencyIndia has been a major recipient of US work visas, notably the H-1B program that powers its $250 billion IT services industry. These visas, along with the offshoring of business and software services, have enabled Indian firms to scale globally. But they are also politically sensitive in the US, where Trump’s base has long criticised them for taking away American jobs.
“Relations with India risk becoming a football in American domestic politics,” said Evan Feigenbaum, a former senior US State Department official under the George W. Bush administration.
“Issues that directly touch India are among the most partisan and explosive in Washington, including immigration and deportation, H-1B visas for tech workers, offshoring and overseas manufacturing by US companies, and technology sharing and co-innovation with foreigners,” he wrote in a LinkedIn post.
Uncertainty over India’s tech workforce ties
India’s longstanding access to the US work visa system—especially H-1B visas—now faces mounting pressure. Recent moves by the Trump administration signal a sustained tightening of visa pathways that have long powered India’s tech talent export.
The Trump administration has signalled potential changes that could reshape visa allocations. A proposed rule would scrap the current lottery system for H-1B visas in favor of a wage‑based “weighted selection process,” favouring applicants with higher salaries. This shift could marginalize early‑career professionals, including Indian graduates transitioning from student status.
New procedural hurdles are also emerging: enhanced social media vetting has prompted the halt of new student‑visa appointments, raising anxiety among Indian students planning to study in the US. Moreover, the government’s introduction of visa bonds—requiring applicants to post up to $15,000 for tourist and business visas—could extend to India if it is added to the pilot list alongside countries with high overstay rates.
Within the US political landscape, anti‑visa rhetoric is gaining strength. Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon has denounced the H‑1B program, advocating for post‑graduation visa limits and even an "exit visa" requirement. Meanwhile, far‑right Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has publicly called for an outright end to H‑1B visas for Indian nationals, echoing nativist sentiments that could influence policy direction.
Also Read| H-1B tension rises amid US lawmaker’s call to curb Indian tech hiring
New tariffs and oil pressure deepen the rift
Trump this week signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% duty on Indian imports—citing India’s continued purchases of Russian oil as justification. This follows an earlier 25% tariff and marks a sharp escalation in trade pressure.
India’s opposition parties and sections of the public have urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resist what they describe as pressure tactics from Washington. Trump’s recent suggestion that India could instead buy oil from Pakistan has further inflamed sentiment in New Delhi.
In response, India called the new duties “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” and said it would “take all actions necessary to protect its national interests.” But officials privately acknowledge that India lacks strong economic leverage—unlike China, which controls critical supplies such as rare earth minerals.
Also Read| Trump’s former adviser calls for total ban on H-1B visa and restrictions on international students
Strategic ties at risk amid domestic politics
Despite closer defence and intelligence cooperation, the two countries are now navigating a phase that some experts describe as the most difficult since the US sanctioned India over its 1998 nuclear tests.
“India is now in a trap: because of Trump's pressure, Modi will reduce India's oil purchases from Russia, but he cannot publicly admit to doing so for fear of looking like he's surrendering to Trump's blackmail,” Ashley Tellis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Reuters.
In recent days, Indian refiners have begun reducing Russian oil imports, Reuters reported.
Trouble ahead for visas
For India, the larger concern is what comes next. Trump’s past record and current rhetoric indicate that visa restrictions could be revived, especially targeting sectors seen as exporting American jobs. Any changes to H-1B policy would directly hit Indian professionals and outsourcing firms, many of which rely heavily on access to US clients and workers on temporary visas.
While trade disputes may be negotiated, visa access is harder to insulate from political pressure, especially during an election cycle in the US. With immigration, jobs, and foreign technology partnerships becoming flashpoints in domestic debates, India’s pathway to the American labour market could come under fresh scrutiny.
What began as a tariff dispute could now turn into a broader realignment—one that challenges not just trade ties but the human capital link that has anchored US-India relations for decades.
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