Rental Price Trends Since 2021

Here are the metro areas seeing the largest rent cuts right now. Rent reductions remain most notable in soft-demand West Coast markets (where 64% of metros now showing rent cuts) and high-demand-but-even-more-supply Sun Belt markets (45% in region now negative). Phoenix, Austin and Las Vegas continue to see the deepest rent cuts, with all three nearing -5% on an annualized basis as supply outpaces demand. Other high-demand-but-even-higher supply markets with rent cuts >2% include Atlanta, Jacksonville, Raleigh/Durham, Orlando, Salt Lake City and Nashville. The same pattern is playing out in hot tertiary markets like Boise, Sarasota, Colorado Springs and Wilmington. All have seen strong demand, but also very significant new construction. The West Coast continues to see the highest share of markets with rent cuts. Among major markets, only Orange County and San Diego (just above 1%) remained positive as of August. Rents fell between 1% and 3% in every other major West Coast market, led by Portland, San Francisco and Oakland. Some analysts had projected the West Coast would have more bounce left due to lesser growth and lesser construction in 2020-2022 compared to elsewhere in U.S., but that isn't playing out. Supply is a more significant factor in specific submarkets (especially institutional favored spots like Downtown Seattle, Downtown Los Angeles, Mid-Wilshire LA, and parts of Silicon Valley), while demand remains softer than other parts of the country. By comparison, rents are still growing -- even at more normalized rates -- across nearly all of the Midwest and Northeast, where demand has been steady and supply less abundant. Of the 50 Northeast or Midwest metros ranked among the nation's 150 largest, only three reported rent cuts over the last year: Kalamazoo/Battle Creek, MI; Long Island, NY; and Worcester, MA. The recent slowdown in Long Island might be frontrunning what's happening in nearby New York City. New York produced one of the nation's largest rent cuts in 2020 only to rebound as a higher rent growth market in 2021 and early 2022. But as of August, it's come back down to earth. Asking rents for market-rate apartments in New York were up just 1.9% annually. (Data note: Our NYC data includes primarily larger, professionally managed apartments, typically with on-site management... whereas NYC also has the nation's largest share of walk-up "mom and pop" buildings.) Another notably cooling market is Miami, which hung on much longer than the rest of the Sun Belt but has softened as construction ramped up-- both for apartments but also condos (many of which end up on the rental market, leased out by individual investors). Miami was a staple atop the leaderboard throughout much of 2021-2022. But over the last 12 months, year-over-year rent growth has slid from +19.1% to +2.4%. #rents #multifamily #apartments #rentalhousing

The U.S. median rent/income ratio for market-rate apartments has recorded 15 straight months of decline and that's a positive thing for the industry and renters alike. There are a lot of things to discuss related to this chart so let's dive in. Market Forces: --- Supply's impact on rent growth (though also the brief 2022 pause in demand) has resulted in nearly a year of stagnant rent growth for the U.S. overall. Interestingly enough, rents haven't fallen on a YOY basis at any point during that stretch, which leads to point #2 below... --- Income levels continue to increase. There is a lot of noise in the recent economic data, and I'm not here to suggest that the current state of the economy is flawless. Some signals aren't necessarily as encouraging as - say - this same time last year. But the point at hand is that wages have steadily grown due to an overall resilient economy. Where the Market(s) Stand: --- From a purely rent/income based perspective, rents are now at their most affordable level since January 2021. And the monthly data (albeit far more noisy) actually suggests we may be back to pre-pandemic rent/income levels of about 22%. -- This is a trend happening in almost all markets, by the way. Out of 48 markets with enough sample, 42 markets see May 2024 rent/income below May 2023’s figure (the six exception markets: Anaheim; Cleveland; Denver; Greensboro; Inland Empire; Memphis; and San Jose. Oh and by the way, more than half of the 50 largest U.S. metros are at their lowest level in at least three years (or late spring 2021). What's Next: --- Other data sources such as the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker also supports the idea of continued, strong wage growth as well. That dataset shows we’re at roughly one and a half years in which wage growth has outpaced rent growth. So with that in mind, I think it’s reasonable to suggest that the U.S. rent/income ratio actually backtracks even further before eventually stabilizing sometime in the second half of 2025/early 2026. Other Influences: --- There may be a few ancillary factors that aren't enough to drive the data on their own, but a growing share of “renters by choice” may be the best way to summarize that. Some of the growing share could be lifestyle driven, while some could be choosing to wait until the single family market loosens up a bit. A Crucial Footnote: --- Please bear in mind this data reflects the institutional grade, market-rate multifamily sector only (~40% of the total multifamily housing stock across the U.S.). I'm not proposing that there aren't acute affordability headwinds in more nuanced data because doing so is just burying your head in the sand. I won't wax poetic on the myriad of challenges there because others have already done a great job of summarizing things. --- All is to say then, yes affordability is a concern for certain segments of the rental housing market. It's just doesn't show up as prominently in the institutional grade, market-rate subset.

‼️ US rents grew 33% between 2019 and 2024, more than double the previous five-year pace. Metro-level growth ranged from 7% to 55%, and the Sunbelt saw both extremes. On the Western Sunbelt, Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah all posted rent growth above 44%. 🌄 At the metro level, Boise, ID saw the largest increase at 55.2%, followed by St. George, UT at 54.3%. On the other end, several eastern Sunbelt metros lagged inflation: Danville, KY, Oxford, MS, and Enid, OK all recorded sub-8% growth. 🤔 What explains the divergence? Pandemic-era remote work and record-low mortgage rates accelerated lifestyle-motivated migration into lower-cost Mountain West markets, sharply increasing rental demand. At the same time, chronic underbuilding and tighter land-use constraints in Western metros limited supply responsiveness. Meanwhile, parts of the Southeast delivered record multifamily completions, helping moderate rent growth relative to the West. 🏗️ These forces are already reshaping migration flows. California, New York, and Illinois led domestic out-migration in 2023–2024, while Texas and North Carolina saw the largest gains. Today, nearly half of U.S. renters are cost-burdened. If current trends persist, affordability will increasingly determine where households move — and where growth concentrates. Follow us for more insights from the latest ACS release ➡️ Forty5Park #Demographics #CensusData #RealEstate #Inflation

U.S. apartment rents just experienced their steepest October decline in more than 15 years. According to CoStar, the national average rent dropped to $1,708, a 0.3 percent month-over-month decrease and the fourth straight month of flat or negative growth. The primary driver: an oversupply of new units hitting the market at the same time. A few key insights stood out to me: • Supply is still ahead of demand.  Even with some markets past peak construction, the inventory overhang is keeping rent growth muted nationwide. • All regions declined in October.  The West saw the sharpest drop, while the Midwest continues to show solid year-over-year strength with 2.2 percent rent growth. • Some high-growth markets are now under pressure. Denver, Austin, Seattle, Salt Lake City, and Phoenix all experienced notable monthly rent declines due to elevated vacancies and the introduction of new supply. • Relief is on the horizon. CoStar expects Q4 2025 to be the first time since 2021 that demand outpaces new deliveries. If that happens, vacancy rates should begin tightening in 2026. For investors, this is a reset rather than a downturn. Periods of oversupply often create some of the best opportunities for disciplined operators who stay focused on fundamentals.

In February 2025, the number of leased condo units increased by 13% year over year and sits nearly 50% above the five-year average for this time of year. However, despite strong rental demand, rents are on a downward trend as supply growth outpaces leasing activity. One of the key factors driving rental demand is the prolonged slowdown in the resale housing market. Historically, the Toronto area sees about 90,000 home and condo sales per year, but for the past two years, sales have slumped to roughly 65,000 annually. This steep decline doesn’t indicate a drop in housing needs—it simply reflects that more people can’t afford to buy, forcing them to remain in the rental market. In this way, Toronto’s soft resale market has directly fueled rental demand. Yet, despite robust leasing activity, average condo rents continue to decline due to a surge in available listings. In February, nearly 10,000 condominiums were available for rent—more than double the typical inventory for this time of year, which usually sits at around 4,000 units. As a result, condo rents have fallen 4% year over year and are down 12% from their peak in August 2023. Looking ahead, several factors will determine how Toronto’s rental market evolves: 1)Federal immigration policy: A sharp reduction in the number of non-permanent residents in Canada, as planned by the federal government, could lead to a decline in rental demand over the next 12–24 months. 2)Resale market trends: As long as home sales remain muted, rental demand is likely to stay elevated. However, if buyer confidence returns and sales pick up, fewer people will need to rent, cooling demand. 3)New condo supply: Toronto still has a large pipeline of new condo units, many of which were purchased by investors with plans to rent them out. The key question is whether demand will be strong enough to absorb this growing supply. For now, Toronto’s rental market remains in flux. While demand remains strong, falling rents signal a shift as more rental units flood the market. The balance between supply and demand in the coming months will determine whether this trend continues—or if a new dynamic takes hold. #torontorealestate

Over the last 3 years, several rental markets across the U.S. have seen double-digit corrections. Austin is down 18.3%. Fort Myers 15.3%. And right here in Colorado Springs, rents have adjusted by 12.5%; roughly $200 less per unit per month since 2022. On the surface, that headline might sound like bad news. But zoom out, and it tells a more nuanced story: For #renters, this is a long-overdue correction that’s bringing affordability back after an unprecedented pandemic surge. For #landlords and investors, it’s a recalibration that requires sharper operational discipline, not panic. For #ColoradoSprings, it’s a signal of market maturity: inventory is catching up with demand. Our strong economic base and strategic location keep long-term demand solid, this rent correction signals healthy market rebalancing… not weakness and creates a rare opportunity window for buyers and investors before the next growth cycle tightens supply again. Remember a drop in rent doesn’t have to mean a drop in confidence. It means the market is catching its breath. And in real estate, those breaths often precede the next sprint!

Today we published the PropTrack Quarterly Rental Report for Sep 24 and it finally showed some good news for renters. While rents are continuing to climb in most capital cities the annual rate of rental growth has slowed substantially compared to last year. The market is also starting to see a meaningful lift in the supply of properties being advertised for rent and it is seeing a reduction in demand for rental properties along with properties taking longer to lease. So what's driving the shift? We've seen residential property investment lifting over the past year which is helping along with an increase in first home buyer purchases. We're also starting to see early signs of slowing overseas migration slowing, reducing competition for stock. But I think the biggest shift is the increase in household sizes as renters shift back into share housing. This is quite simply a case of the cost of living continuing to rise rapidly along with the cost of renting, while at the same time wage growth not keeping pace so quite simply, renters can't continue to pay more for their properties. From here, I expect we'll continue to see conditions transition which will be welcome news for renters. We should keep in mind that although conditions are shifting, supply remains low on an historic basis and we still expect rents to increase over the coming quarters, albeit at a slower pace. You can read more here. https://lnkd.in/giBcc_di

Multifamily rent growth remains modest, but steady. And some of the weakest metros are starting to turn a corner. May brought a $6 increase in average U.S. advertised rents to $1,761, with YoY growth holding at 1.0%. While gains are concentrated in the Midwest and Northeast, markets like Austin, Denver, and San Francisco are showing early signs of a rebound. This tells me two things: -Demand is holding, even in high-supply metros -Wage growth is outpacing rent, keeping renter fundamentals strong We’re watching absorption trends closely in markets we once considered overheated. A plateau might be the foundation for the next cycle. Join our investor network to get ongoing data-backed insights like this.

After a short slowdown in rent growth, the latest CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index shows rents up 3.4% YOY in March, and 0.8% from the month prior. Monthly gains are slightly higher than the pre-pandemic average. Re-acceleration of rent growth continues to reflect shortage of homes in areas with high demand and will be an ongoing challenge in reeling in shelter inflation. However, interesting trends arising among attached (generally condos) rental market, which lost ground in March, posting a -0.6% YOY loss - the first loss since the GFC. Decline in rent growth for condos reflects increasing concern of rising cost of ownership in some markets, particularly in Florida where condo assessments laws are impacting existing owners, many of whom are on fixed incomes. In addition, rising cost of insurance is adding to the burden. Of the 7 larger metros that posted annual decline in attached rentals, 5 are in Florida.

Over the past six quarters, the U.S. multifamily sector has posted stagnant rent growth, with an average annual increase of just 1% after setting a national record high of a 9.8% average annual rent increase at the beginning of 2022. For the year, apartment rents are expected to finish 2024 barely positive, with a 0.8% increase. The pullback in landlords' ability to raise rents is directly tied to the large amount of new supply outpacing demand, which pushed the national apartment vacancy rate up almost 310 basis points to 7.9%. While national rent growth may remain below 1% into 2025, reduced levels of apartment completions, combined with the strong demand from renters, could set the stage for rent hikes to begin accelerating. https://lnkd.in/gMuwbGJA