U.S. Cities with Changing Housing Market Trends

Meaningful rent growth is still mostly limited to the Midwest and Northeast, BUT ... momentum is shifting again. Most U.S. apartment markets saw rent change levels shift upward over the last three months. Takeaways: 1) Meaningful upward momentum in lower-supplied coastal markets like New York, Oakland, Orange County, San Francisco, Boston, San Diego and San Jose. Most are still below pre-pandemic normal rent growth, but trending in that direction. San Jose is one that quietly snuck up the leaderboard (perhaps thanks to Silicon Valley returning to the office), with rents now up 3.9% YoY. 2) Meaningful upward momentum, too, in high-supplied Sun Belt markets. Rent change is still negative in most of them, but a few are now seeing rent GROWTH again: Tampa, Miami and Houston. And others will likely soon join them in coming months -- with significant momentum coming in San Antonio, Raleigh, Dallas, Fort Worth, Atlanta, Charlotte and Orlando. -- Houston is one that I've pointed out for a while could surprise some given its construction rate came in BELOW the U.S. average throughout this entire cycle. -- Charlotte is an emerging surprise -- with massive supply levels akin to Austin and Nashville, but outperforming both, now with rent cuts measuring less than 1%. -- South Florida has generally held up better than other Sun Belt markets, but it's one area that did some some (modest) deceleration in rent change over the last three months. And it does have more exposure to immigration than other Sun Belt markets, and recent population change data hasn't been as favorable. 3) The Midwest keeps doing its thing, continuing to rank among the national leaders and now seeing more momentum too in places like St. Louis, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Chicago, Minneapolis and Cleveland. The Midwest is home to six of the nation's top 10 markets (among largest 50 in size) for YoY rent growth as of March: Kansas City, Chicago, Cincinnati, Columbus, Detroit and Milwaukee. Any surprises?

📊U.S. Housing Inventory Is Rising and the Geography Matters New data from Homes.com shows that U.S. housing inventory rose 26% year-over-year in July 2025, reaching its highest level since at least 2017. After years of historically tight supply, more homes are finally coming onto the market, but the rebound isn’t evenly distributed. A few notable patterns: 🏡Sun Belt & fast-growth metros lead the surge Raleigh (+54.5%), Las Vegas (+43.1%), Miami (+40.1%), and Atlanta (+36.7%) top the list. These are markets that experienced some of the strongest post-pandemic demand and are now seeing the sharpest inventory normalization. 🌊Coastal markets are also loosening San Diego (+32.4%), Seattle (+28.5%), Sacramento (+29.1%), and Los Angeles (+23.1%) all posted meaningful gains, even as affordability challenges persist. 🏙️Midwest & Northeast remain tighter Cities like Chicago (+6.7%), Minneapolis (+8%), and San Jose (+9%) saw relatively modest increases. New York City rose +17.6%, still well below the national average. What this suggests: This isn’t a uniform “housing slowdown,” it’s a regional rebalancing of supply. Markets that ran hottest are adjusting fastest, while historically stable markets remain constrained. For buyers, sellers, developers, and investors, location matters more than headlines. Data source: Homes.com | Visualization: Visual Capitalist / Voronoi #HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends #HousingInventory #USRealEstate #MarketData #HousingSupply #RealEstateInsights #UrbanEconomics #PropertyMarket #DataDriven

The entire Western US is in trouble on housing affordability. The Midwest is the last place a young household can still buy. A new Pew Research map shows the split.   Start with the West.   Every metro in California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah is now "very unaffordable" for buyers under 40. The 10 least affordable metros in the country are all in California or Hawaii. There's no longer a "cheaper" California market to flee to. The whole coast priced out a generation.   Now look at the middle of the map.   The 10 most affordable metros for young buyers are spread across Ohio, Missouri, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and upstate New York. The Midwest and the older Northeast are quietly the last places where a young household can still buy a home that pencils.   Here's the math behind it.   From 2019 to 2024, inflation-adjusted home values jumped 30%. Incomes for under-40 households rose 9%. That pushed the price-to-income ratio for young buyers to 3.5, the same level we hit at the peak of the mid-2000s bubble.   The share of young renters who can actually afford to buy fell from 56% to 37% in five years.   And it's not the sticker price doing the damage, it's the payment. The modeled monthly cost on a median home went from $1,689 to $2,776, up 64%, mostly on rates.   The part that matters for anyone building or investing:   In 142 of 160 metros, prices outran young incomes. Affordability is now a local story, and the map is redrawing where the next generation can form households. That's the Midwest and parts of the Northeast, not the coasts.   Capital follows where people can actually live.   If you're allocating for first-time buyer demand over the next decade, this map is the thesis.

It’s gotten harder for young people to afford a #home #Real estate is often described as a local market, so my colleague Blen Wondimu and I wanted to assess how widespread the recent rise in home #prices has been relative to changes in the household incomes of #young people. We defined “young” as individuals under age 40. We chose 2019 as a starting point because it predates the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered a surge in home buying and, according to national house price indices, a sharp increase in home values. Our analysis covered data from 160 metropolitan areas. We found: -In 142 of the 160 metropolitan areas, median home values rose faster than the household income of young households. -We used the standard measure of #housing affordability—the home price-to-income ratio—but modified it to reflect the household income of young adults rather than all households. In 2019, 59% of metros were classified as very or somewhat affordable for young people. By 2024, that share had declined to 39%. -As the map indicates, the metropolitan areas that remain very or somewhat affordable for young people are largely concentrated in the interior regions of the country. In contrast, coastal metros are generally prohibitively expensive for young households seeking to purchase a home. -In 2024, four states—California, Hawaii, Nevada, and Utah—had no metropolitan areas with available data that were considered affordable; all were classified as very unaffordable. Bottom line: In most metropolitan areas, #homeownership has become more challenging for young adults. However, in a corridor stretching from Oklahoma City to Albany, housing remains relatively affordable. Is that consistent with your experience? Research report here: https://lnkd.in/eMkPKxpb

The Yardi March 2026 Multifamily report is here. 5 observations worth noting: --- 1. Weakest YoY March Growth on Record The average U.S. advertised rent rose $5 in March to $1,750, the first increase since last summer. Spring leasing season has arrived, and the gains were broadly distributed. But the 0.1% year-over-year growth rate is the weakest March on record going back to 2012. For context, the 2012-2019 average March growth was 3.6%. 2. Low Supply = Positive Rent Growth The pattern continues to hold. New York City (+4.5%), San Francisco (+3.9%), Chicago (+3.4%), Twin Cities (+2.5%), and Kansas City (+2.3%) are leading the way. Every one of these markets has trailing-12-month completions below 2.5% of total stock. Detroit (+1.4%) is worth watching too, with only 0.8% completions-to-stock, the lowest in the top 30. 3. High Supply = Negative Rent Growth Austin (-4.1%), Denver (-3.5%), Tampa (-3.4%), and Phoenix (-3.2%) remain the weakest markets. Austin's completions-to-stock ratio sits at 7.8%, nearly 3x the national average. Charlotte is absorbing 6.5% of stock in new supply, which explains the -1.4% YoY rent decline despite strong 2.7% job growth. Supply is the dominant variable. Takeaway: Watch Charlotte. Strong jobs + massive supply = a market that could swing quickly once the new supply pipeline clears. 4. Occupancy Softening Across the Board The national occupancy rate held at 94.3% but declined 40 bps year-over-year. Only two markets posted occupancy gains: Atlanta and San Francisco (both +0.2%). Tampa saw the largest drop (-1.1%), followed by Washington, D.C., and Houston (both -0.9%). Texas markets are especially soft, with Houston at 91.8% and Austin at 92.0%. Meanwhile, New York sits at 98.2% and New Jersey at 96.7%. The spread between the best and worst markets is now 5-6%. Takeaway: Continue to protect the back door. Renewals matter more than ever in a market where occupancy is eroding. 5. Iran Conflict, Energy Prices & AI Reshaping Growth This month's editorial section is stacked. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global supply chains and pushing energy costs higher, creating inflation risk and a "higher-for-longer" rate environment. At the same time, AI now represents one-third of corporate capital expenditures and the share is rising. J.P. Morgan's Tom Kennedy predicts U.S. economic growth will be driven by AI spending rather than consumers. Add in a K-shaped economy with spending concentrated in the top third of earners, reduced immigration, and a declining birth rate, and the demand picture for multifamily gets more complicated by the month. Anything here stand out or surprise you? How do you expect the Spring/Summer to unfold? - Trey (p.s. access to this report linked below) *** Follow me (Trey Wheeler) for more Multifamily content & sign up for my free newsletter below to receive it every Saturday.

The housing market has never looked like this before. In February 2026, there were approximately 630,000 more home sellers than buyers, which is the largest gap we've recorded since Redfin started tracking this data in 2013. That's a 46.3% seller surplus, up from 29.8% just a year ago. Buyers are pulling back fast. The estimated buyer pool fell to 1.36 million in February, down 2.4% from January alone. Meanwhile, the number of sellers barely budged. High mortgage rates, elevated prices, and economic uncertainty are keeping would-be buyers hesitating. Homebuyers now have more leverage to negotiate better prices in most of the country. Markets where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10% (what we classify as buyer's markets) are seeing home price growth of just 0.3% year-over-year. Compare that to 2.2% in seller's markets. The most buyer-friendly markets right now: → Miami (+163% seller surplus) → Nashville (+120%) → Austin (+112%) Southern metros are leading this shift due largely to pandemic surges in new construction. Meanwhile, the Northeast, which has been constrained by limited building, remain seller's markets. Newark, NJ and Montgomery County, PA are among the tightest markets in the country. Full report linked in comments.

The Silent Shift in U.S. Real Estate Markets. While everyone’s talking about New York, San Francisco, and Miami… the real opportunity is happening in the cities nobody’s talking about. Over the past 5 years, places like Austin (+13% pop), Charlotte (+12%), Nashville (+11%), and Columbus (+10%) are growing 2–3x faster than the national average, fueled by corporate relocations, remote work, and affordability pressures. Yet, housing supply hasn’t kept up — and that’s creating a rare window for outsized returns.” - Vacancy rates in many secondary cities are below 4%, while coastal metros are hovering around 6–7%. - Median rents in these growth markets have increased 15–20% in the last 2 years, outpacing wage growth in traditional hubs. - Companies are moving offices and employees, but institutional investors are still chasing the obvious markets, leaving supply-constrained neighborhoods wide open. It’s not about buying in a city — it’s about buying in the right micro-markets where demand is skyrocketing and supply is fixed. That’s where real wealth is quietly being built. Secondary markets that seem ‘boring’ today could be tomorrow’s 3–5x return hotspots. #pere #realestate #marketinsights #investing

Austin, Atlanta, and Dallas boast 'appropriately supplied' lot inventory—L.A. & Philly homebuilders still struggle to find lots Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf: "The timing of land and lot deliveries is a growing challenge in today’s housing market. While builders had planned to increase housing starts in 2025, they slowed production as the year progressed due to choppy consumer demand and rising resale supply. This slower pace of construction contributed to the 5-year high in Zonda’s Lot Supply Index, as fewer lots were converted into starts." During the Pandemic Housing Boom, we saw red-hot housing demand quickly absorb much of the available slack in the housing market. Back in 2021, active housing inventory for sale, unsold completed new builds, and available lot supply all plunged to historic lows. But ever since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in mid-2022, housing slack has been building back up in the housing market—especially in certain pockets of the Sun Belt and Mountain West. That includes rebounding lot supply. My latest for ResiClub: https://lnkd.in/g8uanWVd Zonda's report: https://lnkd.in/gesyAqPf