‘Doomsayers were doomed’: Why India Q1 Real, Nominal GDP are table-thumping numbers; PM Modi says 'herculean feat'

Mint Explainer: India's economy grew by 7.8 percent in the April-June quarter, beating analyst expectations, official data released on 31 August showed.

"Indian economy has sustained growth momentum despite global headwinds," the data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme the ministey of statistics said in a press statement on 31 August.

The figure exceeded economists' projections. GDP growth was estimated at 7.4 per cent in a Mint poll of 21 economists.

Growth was slower than 8.6 per cent in Q4 of FY26 (revised from 7.8% earlier) but higher than 6.8 per cent in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. In its latest monetary policy review in August, the Reserve Bank of India pegged growth in the June quarter at 7 per cent (up from an earlier projection of 6.6%) and raised its FY27 growth projection to 6.7 per cent from 6.6 per cent.

The numbers offer a sliver of hope amid the global uncertainty due to US-Iran war. The table-thumping numbers come amid a challenging global environment marked by geopolitical tensions, oil shocks and economic uncertainty.

Why are these numbers table-thumping and why did PM Modi called them a ‘herculean feat’, Mint explains.

The key numbers and sector-wise details

While agricultural growth remained subdued, manufacturing and services surged, bolstering growth beyond even the Reserve Bank of India's 7 per cent estimate, the Indian Express reported.

A sharp surge of nearly 12 per cent in gross fixed capital formation, the proxy for investments in the economy, also provided the required push to the overall growth, along with a firm growth in private consumption, the report said.

Strong growth in manufacturing and services, along with a sharp rise in investment, helped propel the growth rate to 7.8 per cent in Q1, the report said.

While the manufacturing sector grew by 9.2 per cent in April-June, up from 8.3 per cent in the same quarter last year, the tertiary sector, or services, expanded 10 per cent, higher than 8 per cent a year ago. Agriculture recorded a modest growth of 3.6 per cent in Q1 as against 4.4 per cent in the corresponding quarter a year ago.

-Real GDP is estimated to grow by 7.8% in Q1 of FY 2026-27, compared with 6.9% in Q1 of FY 2025-26.

-Nominal GDP grew 10.3% in Q1 of FY 2026-27, compared with 8.1% in Q1 of FY 2025-26.

-Real and Nominal GVA are projected to grow by 8.2% and 11.5%, respectively, in Q1 of FY 2026-27.

-The tertiary sector has boosted the performance of the economy by registering growth of 10.0% at Constant prices, mainly driven by the ‘Financial, Real Estate, IT and Professional Services’ sector, which has observed 12.1% growth during Q1, FY 2026-27.

-The secondary sector has registered a growth of 8.6% at Constant prices.

-The primary sector has observed 2.9% growth rate at Constant prices, mainly contributed by the performance of the ‘Agriculture and Allied’ sector, which registered 3.6% growth during Q1 of FY 2026-27.

-On the expenditure side, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) recorded a double-digit (11.9%) growth rate at Constant prices during Q1 of FY 2026-27, against the growth of 5.8% in Q1 of FY 2025-26.

-Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) registered a growth of 7.1% at Constant prices during the quarter.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman also welcomed the GDP figures and credited the people of India for the strong performance. "Estimated growth of real GDP in Q1 of FY 2026-27 is 7.8 per cent. Nominal GDP in Q1 of FY 2026-27 is estimated to have grown by 10.3 per cent, while Real GVA has recorded growth of 8.2 per cent," Sitharaman said in a social media post.

“The credit for this strong performance goes to the people of India and their hard work. Reforms undertaken by the NDA Government, together with an agile management of the economy, are bearing results. The NDA Government, led by PM Shri Narendra Modi, remains committed to further expanding economic opportunities for all our citizens,” she said.

The Q1 GDP estimates are subject to revisions. MoSPI said improved data coverage and revisions in input data by source agencies would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of the estimates.

The next release of quarterly GDP estimates, covering the July-September quarter (Q2) of FY27, is scheduled for November 30, 2026.

PM Modi called the “exemplary GDP growth of 7.8% during Q1 of FY 2026-27” a herculean feat.

Why did PM Modi call it a herculean feat?

“The collective strength of our people ensured India delivered such growth despite oil price shocks and supply chain issues in the midst of global uncertainties,” PM Modi said in a post on X.

“Doomsayers were doomed and India bloomed…yet again!” he said.

PM Modi congratulated people for their hard work and said the country's economic growth came despite global challenges, including wars, crises and disrupted supply chains. He also took a dig at the opposition for echoing falsehoods and spreading despair.

"A growth rate of 7.8%--the nation is filled with joy. I congratulate the people of this country for their resolve and their industrious spirit; this reflects our collective strength,” the prime minister said in a video message.

The world is mired in conflict, news of war is coming from all directions, and the globe is beset by crises, the prime minister said.

“Supply chains are severely disrupted. Since the COVID era of 2020, stability has been elusive everywhere. Yet, India continues to progress rapidly," PM Modi said

"Meanwhile, within the country, there are those mired in the abyss of pessimism, echoing falsehoods and spreading despair. Rising above all this and cutting through these obstacles, the nation has achieved a growth rate of 7.8%. We must maintain this momentum. We must keep moving forward, and for that, becoming Atmanirbhar Bharat is essential," he said.

PM takes swipe at Rahul Gandhi

PM Modi took an apparent swipe at Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and the Opposition over what he described as a campaign of pessimism and “jhooth ki goonj" (echo of lies).

Last year in August, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had endorsed US President Donald Trump's jibe against India, saying that the Republican leader is right in saying that the Indian economy is “dead".

“Yes, he is right. Everybody knows this except the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister. Everybody knows that the Indian economy is a dead economy. I am glad that President Trump has stated a fact… The entire world knows that the Indian economy is a dead economy. BJP has finished the economy to help Adani…" Rahul Gandhi.

Soon after the PM’s message, BJP leaders took swipes at Rahul Gandhi and the Opposition’s criticism of the government’s economic policies.

BJP leader Pradeep Bhandari wrote on X: “Those whose only agenda is to spread negativity through JHOOT KI GUNJ…"

Jhoot Ki Gung is perhaps a swipe Chhatron Ki Goonj — a nationwide student movement against paper leaks, exam irregularities, and rising fees lead by Rahul Gandhi.

Bhandari said PM Modi had “slammed Rahul Gandhi & the negativity campaign" while highlighting India’s economic growth.

(With agency inputs)