Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices, Powell sounds alarm as he cites inflation data

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, on Friday in his speech at annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming hinted that the central bank is preparing to soon restart interest rate cuts. The markets cheered and the stocks of US banks surged as Powell opened the door to a rate cut as soon as next month.

However, he also cautioned against the gloomier economic outlook, in part because of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. In his remarks, the Fed chair underscored that tariffs are lifting inflation and could push it higher in the coming months.

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Tariffs pushing up prices, says Powell

“The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts,” Powell said.

Citing inflation data, Powell said, "Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods.” And unlike recent months, he seemed more convinced than ever that the effects of tariffs are “clearly visible.”

“We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts,” he added in his Jackson Hole address Friday. But it remains to be seen whether prices will move higher and more or less stay there, or lead to more persistent recurring price increases, he said.

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Inflation has edged up in recent months, though it remains well below the 9.1% peak seen three years ago. While tariffs haven’t fueled price increases as much as some economists feared, they are beginning to drive up the cost of heavily imported items like furniture, toys, and shoes.

In July, consumer prices climbed 2.7% from a year earlier, surpassing the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Core prices—excluding food and energy—rose 3.1%.

On the labor front, Powell noted that although hiring has slowed significantly this year, unemployment remains low. With immigration declining sharply, fewer jobs are needed to maintain stability in the jobless rate.

Still, Powell cautioned that sluggish hiring heightens the risk of a deeper downturn, potentially leading to more layoffs.