ET Evoke
‘India and China are creating alternative payment systems now — that could be a powerful geoeconomic challenge to the US’
Matteo Maggiori explains geoeconomics as powerful nations leveraging trade and finance for influence, citing tools like export controls and sanctions. He highlights the financial sector and semiconductor supply chains as key arenas, noting China and India's efforts to create alternative systems to challenge US dominance. Overuse of geoeconomic power risks fragmentation and the rise of multipolar world.
India is now the fastest-growing economy on Earth — Donald Trump will need India’s support as much as the other way around: Sir Paul Collier, Oxford Professor
Sir Paul Collier highlights the dual nature of capitalism, praising its problem-solving abilities while cautioning against its potential for inequality and surveillance. He emphasizes India's economic progress and its crucial role in global cooperation, particularly on climate change. Collier also critiques moral imperialism from wealthy nations, advocating for localized solutions to environmental issues.
‘To call India’s fast-growing economy ‘dead’ is so Trumpian —the US President is undermining faith in American statistics’
Alan Blinder, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair, critiques Trump's economic policies, highlighting the contractionary effects of tariffs and the undermining of statistical agencies. He expresses concern over the future of global trade due to the US's shift away from globalization.
Donald Trump has succeeded in imposing US tariffs globally now — but this won’t last as nations will learn how to retaliate: Kenneth Rogoff
Kenneth Rogoff discusses the dollar's dominance and potential threats. Sanctions and unsustainable US debt are key factors. Rogoff believes no single currency will replace the dollar. He also analyzes Donald Trump's tariffs, predicting slower US growth. Rogoff highlights India's chess success, surpassing China and the US, as a marker of India's rise in science and technology.
America’s changing stages of capitalism impacted the world — Donald Trump now wants to disrupt the old economic order: Jonathan Levy
Professor Jonathan Levy discusses the evolution of American capitalism. He identifies distinct ages, from commerce to chaos. Donald Trump is seen as a disruptive force, potentially dismantling the existing economic order. The US questions its global economic relationships. Wealth inequality is a key concern. Public debt is an issue, especially with investments not geared towards a better fiscal future.
The ‘stealthy wealthy’ have been rising in America — they make things and get rich slowly in contrast to Silicon Valley’s elite: Owen Zidar
Princeton's Professor Owen Zidar highlights the rise of 'stealthy wealthy' private business owners in America, contributing to growing inequality. Trump's tax cuts disproportionately benefit these owners, while assistance for the poor is reduced. Zidar suggests investing in the young for future prosperity, questioning the effectiveness and advisability of tariffs as a revenue source.
‘Donald Trump’s tariffs are helping to defray the US fiscal deficit now — but ultimately, they’ll weaken the economy’
Alan Auerbach highlights America's economic strengths in innovation and flexibility, but expresses concern over policies disrupting the economy. He points out the unbalanced distributional consequences of recent fiscal policy, leading to unsustainable national debt. Auerbach suggests addressing entitlement programs and tax system adjustments, emphasizing the need for political cooperation to tackle the challenge.
‘America’s attitude to Britain was ruthless as it became global hegemon — China’s ‘military-civil fusion’ mirrors the US now’
Katherine C. Epstein discusses the rise of the military-industrial complex, tracing its origins back to naval technology advancements and geopolitical rivalries. She highlights the tensions between government, private sector control of intellectual property, and national security interests.
Despite supplying 90% of its oil exports to China, Iran is weakened now: Helen Thompson, Cambridge University
Helen Thompson discusses Iran's geopolitical significance. Tehran exports oil to China, despite sanctions. The Hezbollah attacks deteriorated Iran's strategic position. Trump's stance on nuclear weapons also impacted the situation. Oil prices fluctuate with tensions. Regime change in Tehran would affect China and Russia. The energy transition faces immense challenges. Decarbonising electricity is key, but faces technological and economic hurdles.
Iran’s ‘License Raj’ resembles 1960s India — those close to the regime get permits and oil revenues, the educated get no jobs: Jeremy S. Friedman
Despite sanctions, Iran's economy stagnates with an over-educated population and limited job opportunities. The 1979 Islamic Revolution had socialist roots, but the Iran-Iraq war led to a large state sector. China and Russia's support is limited, and while Iran-Israel conflict poses risks, internal revolution poses a bigger threat to global energy markets.
Must Watch
With the US slapping tariffs around, international trade is like the Wild West now: Gene M. Grossman
The US is imposing trade policies and tariffs indiscriminately, ignoring its WTO commitments — a situation likened to the Wild West. With no real enforcement power, the WTO is now sidelined, and there's little will to uphold its agreements.
Rising uncertainty over trade wars and de-dollarisation are pushing up global demand for gold — its supply is limited: Campbell R. Harvey
Campbell R. Harvey explains gold's enduring value, citing its historical stability from ancient times to today. He notes that the financialization of gold through ETFs and geopolitical factors like de-dollarization influence its price. While volatile in the short term, gold serves as a long-term store of value and a potential hedge against stock market downturns, offering portfolio diversification.
‘Nationalism in China has grown with Xi Jinping— many citizens think economic showdowns with the US are part of China’s rejuvenation’
Rory Truex, a Princeton professor, analyzes the evolving US-China relationship, highlighting the shift towards strategic competition under Donald Trump and the rise of nationalism in China under Xi Jinping. While acknowledging the potential costs of economic decoupling, Truex notes the CCP's efforts to prepare its citizens for potential conflict.
‘Clean energy projects will slacken in the US — other nations are rightly frustrated with Donald Trump’s environmental policies’
Jay Turner discusses the battery industry's evolution and its current state. He highlights the impact of policy changes, particularly under President Trump. Investments in the US battery sector might slow down. China's early investments in clean energy technology gave them a lead. The Republican Party's stance on environmental issues has shifted over time. American exceptionalism could hinder global environmental efforts.
Support for extremism in Pakistan is strongest among the middle class: Jacob N. Shapiro
Jacob Shapiro's research indicates that in Pakistan, support for extremist groups is stronger among the middle class due to their ability to buffer themselves from the negative impacts of terrorism. While poorer individuals are over-represented in carrying out terrorist acts, the middle class provides crucial financial and social support.
India faces challenges on its periphery— but a neighbour with nuclear weapons puts Delhi in a unique position: Walter C. Ladwig
Walter C. Ladwig highlights India's increasingly assertive foreign policy and growing confidence on the global stage, particularly in its relationships with the West. India's strategic partnerships with the US, Russia, and other nations are crucial for its security and technological advancement. As India's economy expands, it faces unique security challenges, especially concerning its nuclear-armed neighbor.
