2026 Social Security raise may get a Trump bump — here’s how much extra you will pocket

Social Security increase 2026: Starting in January 2026, Social Security beneficiaries may see a modest increase in their monthly checks, and it could be influenced by US president Donald Trump’s tariff and trade policy.

Following the latest inflation data, two leading forecasts now project a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients next year, as per a Motley Fool report. That would mark the fifth consecutive year with a COLA of at least 2.5%, something that hasn’t happened this century, according to the report.

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What the raise could look like

If the 2.7% increase holds, the average retired worker would see their monthly benefit go up by $54, as per the Motley Fool. For those receiving disability or survivor benefits, the increase would be about $43 per month, as per the report.

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The role of Trump’s tariffs

In April, Trump announced a 10% global tariff, along with increased "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with trade imbalances, according to the report. Although some tariffs were paused for 90 days, these actions are expected to cause modest price increases, which contribute to inflation, the main factor used to calculate the Social Security COLA, as reported by Motley Fool.

Both The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and Mary Johnson, a Social Security policy analyst, have said that these tariffs are likely playing a role in the projected 2.7% COLA, as per the report.

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How the COLA is set

The Social Security COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), reported Motley Fool. However, only the average inflation data from July through September is used in the calculation, as per the report.

If the CPI-W for the third quarter of 2025 is higher than it was in the same period of 2024, benefits will increase by the percentage difference, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, as per the Motley Fool.

The official COLA will be announced on October 15, according to the report.

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Why some retirees may still feel the pinch

Even with a raise, many beneficiaries may not see much improvement in their financial situation. According to TSCL, Social Security’s buying power has declined by 20% between 2010 and 2024, as per Motley Fool. One reason is that the CPI-W does not reflect the actual spending habits of older Americans, who typically spend more on medical care and housing, according to the report.

Another concern is rising Medicare Part B premiums. The 2026 premium is projected to increase by 11.5%, reaching $206.20 per month, reported Motley Fool. Since these premiums are deducted directly from Social Security checks, many retirees may see most or all of their COLA offset, according to the report.

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A familiar feeling for many

While a 2.7% COLA may offer some relief, many of the nearly 70 million Social Security beneficiaries may end up disappointed once again, as rising costs continue to outpace the modest increases in their monthly payments, as per Motley Fool.

FAQs

How much will my Social Security check increase in 2026?
If the 2.7% forecast holds, the average retired worker could see about $54 more per month, as per the Motley Fool report.

Why is Social Security getting a raise next year?
Social Security adjusts payments each year based on inflation, to help keep up with the rising cost of living, as per the Motley Fool report.