CRUDE OIL MARKET ANALYSIS
Oil gains despite OPEC+ planning to boost output
Despite OPEC+'s planned output hikes, oil prices remain surprisingly resilient, trading near $67 a barrel. Analysts attribute this to China's aggressive stockpiling and OPEC's actual output lagging behind targets, preventing the anticipated 'oil glut' from materializing visibly. Doubts persist about the glut narrative until verifiable stock increases occur, even with projected surpluses.
India’s state-owned refiners seek to fully revive Russian crude buys despite US pressure
Despite US pressure, Indian state-owned oil refiners aim to revive discounted Russian crude purchases. However, a lack of available cargoes due to redirection to China and increased competition from other nations is hindering these plans. While India intends to continue buying Russian oil, imports have already decreased, and further declines are expected as China increases its intake.
Indian Oil Corp says Russia's spot oil supply is normal
Indian Oil Corp said Russian oil continues to trade at a $2–$3 per barrel discount to Dubai crude for Indian deliveries. India remains the largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude despite U.S. pressure. August imports fell to 686,850 bpd from July’s 1.34 million bpd as state refiners paused purchases due to narrower discounts and high inventories.
Oversold bounce won’t last, softer oil prices ahead: Peter McGuire
OPEC+ announced a fresh output hike, lifting Brent crude prices briefly before experts cautioned against a sustained rally. XM Australia’s Peter McGuire expects softer pricing, projecting crude in the high 50s within weeks. Russia’s compliance adds supply, raising concerns of a potential glut by mid-Q4, easing consumer inflation pressures.
India's oil-demand growth set to outpace China, says Trafigura Group
India's oil demand is expected to surpass China's this year. This excludes China's strategic stockpiling. Urbanization and rising incomes are driving India's growth. China's crude consumption is slowing, except in petrochemicals. China's stockpiling supports global crude prices. Experts question if future demand can absorb increasing oil supply.
New sanctions on Russian oil buyers to disrupt flows, says trader Gunvor
New sanctions targeting buyers of Russian oil could significantly disrupt crude flows, according to Gunvor's Frederic Lasserre. President Trump is considering secondary tariffs on countries like China and India that purchase Russian oil, aiming to pressure President Putin. However, leaders from China, Russia, and India signal resistance to further sanctions, potentially impacting global oil supplies.
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S&P Global expects crude prices to hit $55 per barrel by year end
S&P Global anticipates dated Brent crude prices to decline to approximately $55 per barrel by the end of the year. This forecast hinges on factors like a potential surplus, continued Russian oil supply, and shifts in stock building. A significant surplus and inventory changes could drive prices even lower, according to Dave Ernsberger.
S&P Global expects dated Brent crude to hit $55 per barrel by year-end
Dated Brent crude prices are likely to fall to around $55 per barrel by year-end, an S&P Global executive said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference on Monday.
China oil stockpiling helps offset global surplus, S&P Global says
China, the world's leading oil importer, has significantly increased its crude oil stockpiles this year, reaching a multi-year high. This aggressive stockpiling, estimated at 530,000 barrels per day, has helped absorb a global surplus created by increased OPEC+ production. China's current onshore crude oil inventories stand at approximately 1.4 billion barrels, exceeding global oil demand growth.
S&P Global expects dated Brent crude to hit $55 per barrel by year-end
S&P Global anticipates a drop in Dated Brent crude prices. The price could hit $55 a barrel by the end of the year. OPEC's decision to gradually increase output influences this forecast. Ample supply and continued Russian oil flow contribute to the expected price decline. Ample stock and commercial inventory may further lower the price. Contango situation indicates comfortable supplies.
Oil prices climb as OPEC+ agrees to raise output at slower pace from October
Oil prices saw a slight increase in early trading following OPEC+'s decision to moderately raise output from October, a response to anticipated weaker global demand. This decision, while surprising given potential winter oversupply, contrasts with larger previous monthly increases. Market sentiment is also influenced by potential U.S. sanctions on Russia and ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Russia's intensified attacks on Ukraine.
OPEC+ agrees on output boost from October
OPEC+ decided to increase oil supply. They will add 137,000 barrels a day from October. This is part of a larger plan to release 1.65 million barrels a day. The decision shows optimism about the oil market. The group aims to regain market share. The next meeting is scheduled for October 5.
'More' secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil can damage Moscow's economy: Bessent
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Russian economy faces imminent collapse if the US and EU impose further secondary sanctions on nations purchasing Russian oil. The Trump administration has already imposed a 50% tariff on Indian oil purchases from Russia.
Key OPEC+ members agree to again boost oil production
Eight key OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have agreed to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting next month. Analysts interpret this move as a strategic effort by the V8 grouping to expand their market share in crude oil sales. The decision reflects an ongoing adjustment to global oil supply dynamics.
Dividend yield: Stock traders can use it differently to distinguish between the probability & possibility of making money
Dividend yield is not just an investor’s tool. At certain points in the market, it becomes just as relevant – sometimes even more so – for traders. Yes, traders. Now, why would dividend yield, of all things, act like a support line? The explanation lies in market memory and psychology. Around a certain level of dividend yield, value-oriented funds begin to step in because the price suddenly offers the comfort of an income stock. Momentum traders see valuation support and a floor building underneath the price. Options desks recalibrate, as downside looks limited and covered calls turn attractive. Each group is reacting to its own cues, but collectively they create the reflexive bounce that turns weakness into opportunity for traders.
SOPA seeks 10% hike in edible oil import duty to support farmers
The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has appealed to the government to increase import duties on edible oils by at least 10% to shield farmers from low domestic prices, which have discouraged soybean cultivation.
Hedge funds jump into bullish oil bets on tight supply signals
Hedge funds significantly increased bullish bets on crude oil, anticipating market tightness and geopolitical tensions, just before reports surfaced that OPEC+ might consider boosting output. This bullish move, the largest since June, occurred as hopes for a resolution in Ukraine faded and US crude inventories declined.
US turns to Russia for chicken eggs for the first time in 32 years, despite sanctions to cripple its economy
In July 2025, the United States imported chicken eggs from Russia for the first time since 1992, amounting to $455,000, due to an avian flu outbreak that caused domestic shortages and price hikes. Despite overall trade dropping significantly since the Ukraine invasion, the US continues to import substantial amounts of fertilizer, uranium, and palladium from Russia.
'US disappointed with India continuing to help fund Russia's war in Ukraine,’ says White House adviser
The US expresses disappointment over India's trade with Russia, suggesting it aids Russia's war efforts in Ukraine. India rejects these criticisms, asserting its energy procurement is driven by national interest following discounted Russian oil purchases post-Ukraine invasion. Tensions rise as the US imposes tariffs, questioning India's strategic partnership amid increased Russian oil imports.
Reliance remains compliant with sanctions; Russian oil adds just 2.1% to EBITDA
Analysts suggest Reliance Industries, despite being India's top buyer of Russian oil, is expected to maintain compliance with international sanctions. The financial benefit from refining Russian crude is limited, contributing only a small fraction to Reliance's consolidated earnings. Experts highlight Reliance's history of adhering to Western sanctions, indicating a likely continuation of this practice.
Oil prices ease as investors await OPEC+ output decision
Oil prices edged lower for the third consecutive day as investors anticipate the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where further output increases will be considered for October. The potential boost in production could lead to unwinding output cuts ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, U.S.
Oil prices ease on surprise build in US crude stockpiles, OPEC+ to consider output hike
Oil prices dipped about 1% to a two-week low due to a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories and expectations that OPEC+ may raise output targets. Weak U.S. economic data also fueled speculation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
US tariffs hurting Indian exports; Russian oil giving big boost to balance of payments: Urjit Patel
Patel noted that Indian exports to the United States have been hit hard. “About 55 per cent of our exports to the US at the moment are facing punitive tariffs, and these are the sectors where the pain needs to be mitigated,” he said. According to him, while the US accounts for 13 per cent of world trade, “87 per cent of global trade is carrying on as before, so there is scope for trade deepening.”
Oil prices extend losses on OPEC+ considers another output hike
Oil prices decreased on Thursday. Investors are waiting for the OPEC+ meeting this weekend. Producers will consider increasing output targets. Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude both fell. OPEC+ may raise production in October. The group seeks to regain market share. U.S. crude stocks rose last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute.
Crude shock: Sanctions choke non-Russia oil flow to Nayara
Nayara Energy faces challenges due to sanctions. Crude imports are down, impacting refinery operations. Fuel exports have decreased, leading the company to explore new markets like Brazil and Taiwan. Some shipments have undeclared destinations. The company is focusing on the domestic market with its fuel pumps. Nayara and Rosneft consider the sanctions unfair.
Russian crude's share rises 5% in a shrunk August basket
India's crude imports hit a 10-month low in August due to weaker domestic demand, even as Russian supplies increased by 5.6% to 1.67 mbd, raising its share to 37%. Imports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the US declined, while the UAE emerged as a significant gainer. Discounts on Russian oil continue to attract Indian refiners, despite pressure from the US.
Oil prices hold on to gains from US sanctions
Oil prices are stable in Asian trading. The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting. U.S. imposed sanctions on companies smuggling Iranian oil. U.S. crude oil stockpiles are expected to fall. Economic data is soft. China is holding a military parade. Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un are attending. China is challenging the U.S. with a new global order.
Oil prices fall with expected low demand, upcoming supply boost
Oil prices declined as traders anticipated weaker U.S. demand after Labor Day and a potential supply increase from OPEC+ this autumn. Market sentiment was also influenced by uncertainty surrounding Russian supply and India's continued purchase of Russian oil despite U.S. pressure. While U.S. crude inventories showed strong draws, concerns linger about the impact of tariffs on future economic outlook.
Petrol margins soar above Rs 11 per litre. Should you buy oil marketing company stocks now?
Indian fuel retailers are currently enjoying substantial marketing margins on petrol and diesel, driven by low crude oil prices. Brokerages are recommending buy ratings for oil marketing companies like BPCL and IOCL, anticipating strong earnings for FY26.
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