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Jos White shared thisVery interesting insights from Holden Spaht at the Thoma Bravo LP annual meeting. They are the biggest software investor in the world so what they say carries weight. There are two data points from the slides that seem really stunning to me. First, is that AI will grow the overall software market by $3Tr. Supercycles don't just displace they compound. Second, is that 63% of enterprise buyers see their existing software vendors as benefiting the most from AI. Existing systems & relationships run deep. In every super-cycle there's a moment when the old generation are collectively written off & the new generation are collectively worshipped. This is that moment. Over time some of the old gen companies get optimised for the new technology & come back even stronger than before. Remember Microsoft initially missed cloud & Facebook missed mobile. And some of the much hyped, super shiny next gen companies are exposed by the realities of building a durable business. Realities that include ROI, margins, demands of enterprise customers & the scrutiny of the public markets. Names like Netscape, Quibi, Evernote, MySpace, Snap, Twitter & Clubhouse come to mind. Neither software or AI companies are created equal. We will see that play out over the coming years. And it will be fascinating to watch. Notion Capital Stephen Millard Kamil Mieczakowski Itxaso del Palacio, PhD Chris Tottman Stephen Chandler Patrick Norris Andy Leaver Richard Valtr Matthijs Welle Benedikt Brand Wouter Durville Otto Verhage Ben PetersJos White shared thisThoma Bravo's annual LP meeting came to a close last week in Miami. It’s a moment for us to further sharpen our thinking by answering the hard questions LPs rightly push us on, and step back from the day-to-day to articulate what we believe about the trajectory of the market we’ve spent our careers helping to shape. It’s something of a tradition for me to share insights and a few slides from my presentation to give a glimpse into where we stand heading into the rest of 2026. Our portfolio companies put up dozens of booths where they demonstrated their AI capabilities — a powerful reminder that much of the public conversation about AI and software being at war with each other misses what’s happening inside some of the leading software firms. We recognize of course that the conventional narrative around software in the last few months is nearly dystopian. But we believe that narrative is oversimplified, and the data tells us something quite different. Public SaaS companies have grown their top line at nearly three times the rate of non-tech S&P 500 companies, with gross margins and revenue durability that non-tech S&P 500 companies have not matched. Still, fundamentals and valuations — two vectors you’d expect to move together — are right now moving in opposite directions. Why? Looking backwards a bit, year-over-year revenue growth for the public software space decelerated from 2022 to 2025, not because of AI but largely because interest rates spiked and software seats had been oversold. Meanwhile, the practice of stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue was higher than revenue growth in certain software sectors, as noted in a Feb. 2026 report. The market was complacent about these factors until it wasn’t, and now we believe it’s overcorrecting, re-pricing on AI disruption fears that aren’t fully visible in actual software business performance. The moment creates a major buying opportunity for those disciplined enough to act on it. AI disruption is real and profound, but not all software is equally exposed to the downside risk. Companies with generalist knowledge domains, simplified workflows, light regulatory oversight and limited switching costs are indeed more vulnerable. These types of firms don’t match our investment thesis, and we believe they have no place in our portfolio. We look to buy businesses built around deep domain expertise, zero-tolerance-for-error workflows and embedded cross-system integration. That’s a fundamentally different software value proposition, because these firms are positioned to grow through the incorporation of AI tools into their integrated systems. For them, AI is an upside that strengthens their value proposition to enterprise customers. We don’t believe the public markets make this distinction clearly. And the business performance data signals that the characteristics we look for in software businesses are recognized and rewarded by many customers, who understand the value these systems provide.
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Jos White shared thisLast night Notion Capital announced the Top 100 Cloud Challengers for 2026. The energy & potential in the room was fantastic. The future of European tech is in very good hands 💥 Congratulations to every company that beat the odds & made it onto the CC100 list from a starting point of 20,000 start-ups 👏 Thanks to Britt Mulder Radu Bozga & Kamil Mieczakowski from the Notion Capital team who made it happen. And thanks to our sponsors & hosts for the event Google Cloud & Oksana Stowe 🙏 #cloudchallengers2026Jos White shared this☁️ The 2026 Cloud Challengers Top 100 report is officially live! Last night we celebrated the launch of Notion Capital's fifth annual Cloud Challengers report - an incredible evening bringing together some of Europe's most exciting founders and operators. The energy in the room was a powerful reminder of just how much exceptional talent is emerging across the continent. Now in its fifth edition, the Cloud Challengers report identifies the best emerging business software start-ups in Europe - spanning AI, data, developer tools, cybersecurity, fintech, and SaaS. This year's list is overwhelmingly AI-native, reflecting the profound platform shift reshaping the technology landscape. Our rankings are built on three core pillars - founders, funding, and product - drawing from a comprehensive universe of early-stage European tech companies. A huge thank you to the contributors who made this report possible - Jos White, Kamil Mieczakowski, and Radu Bozga. Your insight and expertise is what makes this report the definitive guide to Europe's most promising early-stage companies. Congratulations to every company that made this year's list. 👏 The link to the full report is in the comments below. 👇 #cloudchallengers2026 #notioncapital #top100
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Jos White shared thisToday Isembard announced a $50m Series A fundraise led by Union Square Ventures, less than a year after Notion Capital led their Seed round. 💥This is a company right at the intersection of AI & supply chain sovereignty & they’re exceeding even our most optimistic expectations. By the end of the year they will have 25 factories across the UK, US, Germany, France & Ukraine. 💥Isembard is rapidly scaling its network of AI-first factories for precision manufacturing at the same time as market demand is accelerating. Macro forces (reshoring, rising defence spend, concentration risk in Asia, and the growth of neo-primes) are structurally increasing demand for fast, local, flexible manufacturing that the current industry is unable to deliver on. 💥The innovation is in the way the company builds and franchises factories as a product with tightly integrated units of machines, software, robotics, & process intelligence that turn design files into certified components with speed & reliability. 💥Their AI software platform, MasonOS, connects all sites into a single operating system, replacing fragmented shops with standardised, high-performance industrial nodes & enabling real-time quoting, predictable delivery, & low defect rates. By owning the full production stack, Isembard delivers premium manufacturing performance with the scalability & flexibility of a software platform. 💥We are at the top of the AI hype cycle and there are understandable concerns about the ROI on the vast sums of money being invested into this new super-cycle. But, the ROI for Isembard is both clear and compelling. They will deliver components 10x faster and at 50% of the cost of current suppliers. They will also build a de-centralised, global network of factories to meet the growing demand for national or regional sovereignty. 💥This is a company with a clear vision to disrupt a massive, fragmented $1.8tn component manufacturing market. Today marks another huge stride towards that vision. And they are only just getting started. We’re thrilled to be on this journey with Alexander Fitzgerald & the team & we’re also excited to welcome Rebecca Kaden & USV into the investor base. Notion Capital Union Square Ventures Alexander Fitzgerald Rebecca Kaden Maximilian Eichler Stephen Millard Britt MulderJos White shared thisIsembard has raised $50m in Series A funding led by Union Square Ventures. We will open 25 factories this year in the United Kingdom and United States, expand our engineering teams and launch into Germany, France and Ukraine. Tamarack Global and IQ Capital joined the round alongside existing investors Notion Capital and CIV. Angels include Alex Bouaziz (Deel), Andrei Danescu (Dexory) and Matt Briers (ex-Wise). Manufacturing is the rate limiter on our collective security, prosperity and sense of purpose as nations. Isembard is the manufacturer for aerospace, defence and robotics customers. We operate both owned and grow franchisee factories powered by our proprietary software and AI platform, MasonOS. Our mission is to forge industrial acceleration. If you are doom scrolling but would rather solve the hardest problems of our time, get in touch. Roles we are hiring for are in the comments below. Saying that, we prefer to craft roles around the individual rather than craft individuals to roles. And if you're interested, the oil painting in the image is The Iron Rolling Mill (also known as Modern Cyclopes) by Adolph Menzel, which depicts engineers inside a 19th-century German rolling mill.
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Jos White shared thisOn Thursday James Wise, VC & now Chair of the Government's new Sovereign AI strategy & Kanishka Narayan MP, Minister for AI, invited a group of investors to share plans & receive feedback on the Sovereign AI fund. The fund will operate alongside VC's offering funding & other resources to many of the UK's best AI companies. Great to be part of it & great to see the focus from the govt on what is such an important area for the UK's economy. Well done James Wise for the leadership. Much more to come 👏
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Jos White shared thisReally looking forward to launching the Top 100 Cloud Challengers for 2026 on March 19th 💥 These are the emerging stars of European tech that we believe have what it takes to be enduring success stories. Alumni from previous years include Lovable, Synthesia & Aikido Security so they're in good company 💪Jos White shared this☁️ Europe’s Top 100 Cloud Challengers 2026 haven’t been announced publicly, but they will all be in one room on March 19th, in London. Out of 200,000 European companies analysed, only 100 made the cut. Cloud Challengers has become the benchmark for identifying Europe's breakout B2B software companies - Synthesia, Lovable, and Aikido Security were all on the list before they became household names. Making it onto Cloud Challengers means a 3x+ higher chance of raising their next round. Founders scaling across Europe. Leaders who’ve done it before. A room designed for meaningful connections. The event will be a space to connect with founders from all corners of Europe, and to be part of a moment the ecosystem will be watching closely. This is a curated evening with limited capacity. If you are a founder and wish to join us, please apply to join the wait list. All registrations will be reviewed and confirmed individually. Apply here: https://bit.ly/40JVJ8C #cloudchallengers #launchevent #exclusivegathering #top100 #notioncapital
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Jos White posted this🛎️ Amidst all of the turmoil of the software sell-off it made me think - isn’t it all just software at the end of the day? Software had to optimise for Client-Server, for Cloud, for Mobile & now for AI. The current narrative goes that the incumbents are all finished & the future belongs to the AI companies. Having lived through the Internet, Cloud & Mobile super-cycles I think the reality will be much more messy than that. The future will be made up of AI powered incumbents & AI native new entrants. ➡️ SaaS is still growing (& is also allowed to use AI) *The SaaS market is growing by more than 20% a yr & the best performing companies even faster than that *Salesforce & ServiceNow forecast more than $1bn in revenues for their AI products in 2026 *Figma just released extraordinary quarterly results -> $1.2bn ARR, 40% per yr reaccelerating growth, 136% NRR. The key driver is their AI product ‘Figma Make’ that enables non-designers to design growing by 70% a QUARTER & now used by more than 50% of customers ➡️ Software is only a small % of the Opex budget *On average companies spend 10% of their Opex on software *This still feels like a long way away from the promise of software eating the world *Surely the much larger & more open opportunity for AI is in going after the 90% of Opex that is NOT spent on software ➡️ History shows us that incumbent companies are more resilient than we think *Facebook lost more than half its value after IPO in 2012 because the market felt it had missed mobile. After a full realignment, strong execution & bold M&A the company surpassed 50% revenues from mobile in 2014 & the share price more than 4x’d *Microsoft had a lost decade in the 2000’s having missed both Cloud & Mobile with the market cap reaching a low of $135bn in 2009. Fast forward to today & they’re seen as a leader in Cloud & AI with a market cap of ~ $3Tr *In 2025 Google’s share price went into a major downturn as the market believed its search business faced an existential threat from AI. In less than a year they’re now seen as a clear winner in AI & their share price has more than 2x’d reaching a market cap of ~$4Tr 💡 In any new super-cycle there is a good deal of hype & emotion. This can distort judgment & lead to extreme reactions. Right now software companies are being consigned to history & AI companies can do no wrong. History would suggest that the reality will be more nuanced & not nearly as simple as that. And the durability of the new generation of companies hasn’t even been tested yet. We’re still at the top of the hype-cycle & the time will come when the ROI of the products & the revenue quality of the new players will be put under much more scrutiny. And remember in all the excitement it’s all just software at the end of the day! Notion Capital Stephen Millard Jessica Thomas Britt Mulder Itxaso del Palacio, PhD Patrick Norris Chris Tottman Stephen Chandler Kamil Mieczakowski
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Jos White shared thisNotion Capital portfolio company LEGALFLY is growing v fast even by AI software standards. The team are deeply focused on the product & making in-house legal teams more productive & less reliant on their law firms. Congratulations to Ruben Miessen & the entire team on their fantastic growth story that is only just getting started 🔥🔥🔥Jos White shared thisJUST IN: LEGALFLY increased ARR by a WHOPPING 800% last year and prepares for a Series B! The startup, founded by Ruben Miessen, Kasper Verbeeck De Wael, Dennis Montegnies, and Gregory Vekemans, provides an AI-native operating system to automate legal workflows, contract review, and compliance for firms and in-house teams. It's already used by dozens of European law firms and enterprise legal teams, and raised a $16m Series A led by Notion Capital (Jos White) in 2024. The company recently announced increasing ARR by 8x in 2025 and growing enterprise customers to 40% of total. I sat down with Ruben where we discussed: 🚀 Building for in-house legal teams vs firms 🚀 Plans to expand to the US 🚀 How it grew 8x last year Check it out by searching "Scaling Europe - Ruben Miessen" on Youtube or Spotify. The Scaling Europe show is sponsored by SurrealDB and presented by Deel.
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Jos White reposted thisJos White reposted thisWe’ve just raised $22m and passed a $100m run rate, with 325% YoY growth over the last two years. That progress comes down to one thing: the people building Fanvue. Our mission is to transform how creators earn, at the intersection of AI and the Creator Economy. It’s ambitious work, and we’re scaling the team to match it. We’re hiring across the business, with 30+ open roles in: • Sales • Marketing • Engineering • Product • and more If you know exceptional people who want to build something meaningful, I’d love an intro. We offer a £5k referral fee for successful hires. Applications are open - link in the comments.
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Jos White liked thisJos White liked thisAI isn’t the real disruption yet. The real inflection point comes when AI and quantum computing converge. This is the view Andy Leaver, CEO of Arqit and Operating Partner at Notion Capital, shared in the latest EUVC episode, hosted by Andreas Munk Holm. They cover why most European startups stall at €10 million to €30 million, why enterprises remain in an experimental phase with AI rather than adopting it at scale, and what changes when AI meets quantum. They also dig into rising security risks, data sovereignty, and “harvest now, decrypt later” threats. Key highlights • Most startups fail scaling from €10M to €30M • AI is impressive, but not yet world-changing • Enterprises are slow to adopt AI despite the hype • Quantum could break current encryption • The real breakthrough is AI + quantum combined Listen to the full podcast. (Link in the comments)
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Jos White liked thisJos White liked thisWe spent a few days together as a leadership team last week. We got a lot done. We debated the year ahead, got to know each other a bit better, ate too much good food and hiked up a huge hill in Barcelona. The usual off-site fun at an inspiring location. But the session that made the biggest impact was the last one. Our AI and engineering teams took over and made us use the tools. Thrown in at the deep end. Just sit down and do it. We became the students. There's a version of AI adoption where you, as a leader, read the summaries, approve the budget, and your team handles the rest. Many leadership teams do this and call it "strategy". The most useful thing I did last week was spend two hours being worse at something than the people who report to me. That was the steepest part of the hill.
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Jos White liked thisJos White liked thisWe are delighted to share that Cogna has been named as the 38th fastest growing company in Europe by Scaling Europe. Thanks to for the inclusion and all you do for the European tech ecosystem Seb Johnson. We're hiring across pretty much all roles if you want to join this rocketship!
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Jos White liked thisJos White liked thisMost of us would lose more sleep over having minor surgery than over millions of strangers dying in a far-off earthquake. Yet, if you could actually save those millions by e.g. sacrificing your finger, no decent person would hesitate. Most of us, most of the time, are able to make active choices about how much we work, build, serve, teach, treat, pay in tax. The nurse working overtime in the NHS. The teacher running clubs every weeknight. The founder on year five of 80-hour weeks. The engineer keeping the grid up at 3am. From a distance it's easy to say the system is broken, someone else should fix it, the rich should pay more, the government should do more. Passive feelings don't match active choices. What I love most about Cogna is that we get to work with the people who take contributing seriously, e.g. keeping water, power, freight, and buildings running. I get to spend a lot of time with people who make active choices to everyones benefit, they chose the hard vocation over the easy one.
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Jos White liked thisJos White liked thisI think good leadership, to the casual observer, often looks worse than bad leadership. Making a call that has negative consequences for people almost always leads to harsher criticism than watching the same consequences unfold through inaction. Leaders feel this every day. A leader who restructures a team is causing the disruption. A leader who lets a team slowly rot through attrition, lack of goals, and avoided conversations is allowing the same outcome or often a worse one. Humans hold action to a much higher moral bar than inaction. The visible, attributable choice gets criticised in a way the invisible default never does. For anyone running something, if your decisions only ever look good to everyone, you're probably allowing too much and causing too little. I think good leadership often means making the call that gets you criticised in the short term. I've done a fair bit of this since starting Cogna a couple of years back. Some of it uncomfortable, all of it necessary. The alternative is the slow rot, with nobody's name on it. I'd rather wear the criticism.
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Jos White liked thisJos White liked thisWe are delighted to welcome Sam Ng to Cogna as our new CTO. Sam is a world class executive, and has held leadership roles at public companies like Amazon, Google and Microsoft, as well as scaleups like GoDaddy where he oversaw a highly successful IPO. He joins us from Amazon AI, where his teams owned the language, compiler, framework, and tools required to build huge training and inference workloads running on Amazon Trainium and Inferentia chips. Welcome Sam! You can check the full release in the comments
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