Modi heads to China — a delicate step in the dragon-elephant tango

Just a year ago, the idea of Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting China would have seemed far-fetched. Relations between the two nations were fragile. The border in eastern Ladakh was quiet but tense, with troop disengagement at key friction points still incomplete.

Fast forward to 2025, and Modi’s upcoming trip to Tianjin feels less like a gamble and more like a calculated step in a complex geopolitical dance.

The foundation for this cautious reset was laid last October, when Modi and President Xi Jinping agreed at the BRICS summit that “disputes and differences would not be allowed to disturb border peace.”

That pact has held firm, setting the stage for Modi’s visit, official confirmation aside. Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is scheduled to visit India next week to meet NSA Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

Multilateral Stage, Bilateral Stakes

Modi’s visit is officially tied to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, a 10-member Eurasian security grouping led by China and Russia, often seen as a counterweight to NATO. Modi’s last trip to China, in 2018, was also SCO-related. India’s position in the SCO is unique, it refrains from endorsing projects like the Belt and Road Initiative and keeps its distance from China-centric economic roadmaps.

Yet the SCO serves India’s interests, from counterterrorism in Afghanistan to promoting connectivity that respects sovereignty and strengthening ties with Central Asia. Modi has used the SCO Heads of State Council meetings to spotlight cross-border terrorism, without directly naming Pakistan.

The forum has also become a neutral space for India and China to engage after tensions spiked in 2020’s Galwan clash. The so-called “Moscow Consensus,” reached months after Galwan during an SCO foreign ministers’ meeting, is a clear example. President Xi’s participation in the 2023 SCO summit Modi hosted virtually further cemented the platform’s role.

Timing Matters

Modi hasn’t attended every SCO summit. He skipped the Kazakhstan meeting last year. This trip signals recognition of the Tianjin summit’s importance to China and the global stage. It’s not just about bilateral ties, it’s about maintaining a steady hand in regional geopolitics and securing support for India’s upcoming BRICS presidency.

Navigating Peaks and Troughs

US policy has occasionally complicated India’s external engagements, but the India-China thaw started long before trade tensions hit. Agreements to end the military standoff in eastern Ladakh were reached before the US elections. Modi’s China visit conveys a clear message: India is ready for a functional relationship with Beijing, as long as border stability is preserved.

“When NSA Doval visited China last December, both sides agreed to maintain peace on the ground so that ‘issues on the border do not hold back the normal development of bilateral relations,’” the reports note. India has maintained this balance despite China’s military ties with Pakistan or tensions in the South China Sea.

The Modi-Xi meeting could include announcements like resuming direct flights and rebuilding trust in trade, investment, and technology. India hopes China will ease trade restrictions and increase imports to reduce the $100 billion trade deficit. China, for its part, seeks a transparent, non-discriminatory environment for its companies.

“The dragon-elephant tango may have just started, but in these circumstances, it will remain accident-prone,” analysts say, recalling highs and lows, from the early Modi years to Doklam, informal summits, and Galwan. Modi’s recent remark, endorsed by Beijing, that “competition should not be allowed to turn into conflict,” signals the cautious approach both sides are aiming for.

Not Walking Away from the US

This visit doesn’t mean India is abandoning the US. Modi has met Xi at previous SCO summits without affecting India’s strategic autonomy. Today, attention is heightened because of US-India trade tensions, including tariffs on Indian oil imports from Russia. Yet India continues to pursue defence, technology, and energy collaboration with the US.

The China visit asserts India’s position against unilateralism while keeping the door open with America. A potential resolution in Ukraine could also ease some tariff pressures.

Three Strategic Watchpoints

India will closely monitor three issues:

1. The US’s continued commitment to the Indo-Pacific amid potential trade concessions with China, particularly as India hosts the upcoming Quad summit in November.
2. Counterterrorism cooperation, which may be affected by the US recalibrating its Pakistan policy.
3. The proposed H-1B visa overhaul, which could impact Indian professionals in IT and healthcare, potentially straining people-to-people and economic ties.

These challenges will test India’s diplomatic finesse and its ability to balance competing global priorities.

With inputs from TOI