Trump offers peace pipe. Modi responds. What next?

After weeks of sharp rhetoric, diplomatic cold winds and public posturing, US President Donald Trump has taken a notable U-turn in his tone towards India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The man who, just days ago, declared on Truth Social that the US had "lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China" is now speaking of an “always special” relationship with India and a “great” Prime Minister in Modi. In response, PM Modi has reciprocated with warmth and optimism, speaking of a "positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership."

This sudden thaw in tensions raises several questions. Is this the beginning of a diplomatic reset? Or merely another tactical shift in Trump’s famously unpredictable foreign policy style?

From blame to bonhomie
Trump's initial statement, declaring that the US had lost India and Russia to China, was widely seen as an expression of American frustration with India’s independent foreign policy trajectory. His post was not just a casual remark. It was accompanied by an old image of the three leaders -- Modi, Putin and Xi --indicating unease over the growing camaraderie between the three nations.

The comment came amid a barrage of sharp and increasingly hostile statements by Trump's officials such as Peter Navarro and Howard Lutnick. India was repeatedly criticised over tariffs, its purchase of discounted Russian oil and its perceived neutrality in the US-China-Russia power dynamic. These remarks, understandably, generated concern in India and among observers of India-US relations.

Yet, barely a day after that post, Trump struck a completely different tone. Speaking from the Oval Office, he said, “I’ll always be friends with (Narendra) Modi… He’s a great Prime Minister. He’s great. But I just don’t like what he’s doing at this particular moment.” The important takeaway here is that while Trump signaled disagreement over India’s immediate policy choices, he also took pains to reassert the special nature of the bilateral relationship.

Prime Minister Modi responded without referencing Trump’s earlier dig. Instead, he chose to amplify the latest positive note. Posting on X, he said: “Deeply appreciate and fully reciprocate President Trump’s sentiments and positive assessment of our ties.” Modi further stressed the “positive and forward-looking Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership” between the two nations.

This response is characteristic of India's current approach: firm yet diplomatic, assertive but not antagonistic. India has refused to yield on core issues -- whether it’s buying Russian oil, resisting trade bullying or staying silent on US commentary about Pakistan -- while continuing to keep lines of communication open with the US.

Behind this Trump-Modi dialogue on social media lies a deeper geopolitical tension. The US has been unnerved by India’s continued engagement with Russia and its recently warmer interactions with China. Modi’s unprecedented visit to China and his public display of unity with Putin and Xi has clearly been viewed in the US as a diplomatic pivot or at least a warning shot.

For India, however, this is part of a larger strategy of multilateral diplomacy. India has shown a consistent preference for a multi-aligned world order, where it engages with all major powers without falling into any camp. The US, especially under Trump, has often struggled to reconcile this Indian stance with its own binary view of international alliances.

A trade deal in sight but a new reality dawns
Despite the diplomatic dust-up, trade talks have quietly continued in the background. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently expressed optimism that India and the US could finalise a trade agreement by November this year. This is significant. It suggests that beyond the loud political statements, bureaucratic and economic engagement has remained intact.

Yesterday, the external affairs ministry, while criticising Peter Navarro for his sharp remarks on India, said that India-US relations are intact. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, "This partnership has weathered several transitions and challenges. We remain focused on the substantive agenda that our two countries have committed to, and we hope that the relationship will continue to move forward based on mutual respect and shared interests."

Further signalling that the fundamentals of the relationship are strong, India and the US have just commenced a joint military exercise in Alaska. These developments point to a relationship that, while occasionally turbulent on the surface, is deeply institutionalised and hard to derail.

Still, there is growing awareness within India’s policy establishment about the risks of overreliance on any one administration, especially one as volatile as Trump’s. The Trump era, both during his first term and now, has demonstrated that his administration can swing between extremes in tone and policy.

The Indian foreign policy community has taken note. While India is likely to continue deepening ties with the US in areas like defense, trade and technology, it is also preparing for the unpredictability that comes with dealing with Trump. The general consensus in India seems to be: engage with the US, but always hedge your bets.

The mutual expressions of friendship between Trump and Modi may well reset the diplomatic narrative, for now. With a potential trade deal on the horizon and military cooperation continuing, it’s clear both sides want to stabilise the relationship. However, India is unlikely to forget the recent barrage of criticism. The sharp anti-India commentary by Trump’s associates and his own shifting tone will ensure that India’s trust deficit remains. India will pursue its national interests as it has been, maintaining strategic autonomy, balancing its relations with Russia and China and resisting external pressure.

The Trump-Modi episode offers a snapshot of the evolving, and at times erratic, nature of India-US relations. While personal rapport between leaders can smoothen diplomatic bumps, national interest and strategic foresight remain the real drivers of foreign policy.