Has unknotting of the Trumpian knot on India-US relationship begun? As with most things Trump, it's difficult to answer that definitively. But painting a target on India's back is beginning to unravel. If Tianjin drove home the point that India can do business with the US' adversaries, conversations with Britain, Germany, Japan, France and the EU underline the strategic limitations to MAGA politics.
The Trump factor is, in fact, serving as a unifying factor among leaders now willing to overlook bilateral differences to build added redundancies to Washington's shock-and-awe approach. Japan is struggling with domestic political problems after Trump announced a trade deal with Tokyo. Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, instead of dissolving parliament amid political crisis, to ensure trade deal negotiations continue.
South Korea, despite firming up a trade deal with the US, is now dealing with the political embarrassment of deporting its own citizens following a raid on one of its company's factories in the US, with no courtesies extended. Humiliation of allies is only matched with extensions to China, conveying a confused picture on where MAGA politics stands today.
New Delhi has opted for political maturity instead of locking horns, exploring its options with others while keeping the channel of conversation with Washington open at all levels. This provides ample opportunity for White House to revisit its position. Because India is critical to three key pillars of Trump's own political agenda:
Economy: The economic question, which contains the trade deal, stands independent of all other factors, including the overall geopolitical rationale. It's stuck on a political call on what sort of an economic relationship the Trump regime wants with the fourth-largest economy of the world.
From 'dead economy' barbs to accusations of profiteering through buying oil from Russia, Trump and his aides have made allegations that have not found resonance among other major economies. If anything, India has found more political sympathy barring, of course, Ukraine.
True, 50% tariffs will hurt India. But what economic gains they bring to the US is hazy. On the other hand, an India partnership built outside WTO's MFN construct is a clear win-win, given the growing size of India's economy and consumer base, including for American goods and services.
Defence, energy, AI: India's defence partnership with the US has grown at a quick pace. From a US perspective, India's not just a big potential buyer but also a future collaborator to make new weapon systems, scale up production, and be a stable security provider in the region, particularly the Indo-Pacific.
On energy, India is among the top three consumers. Trump's own articulation of making US the biggest energy supplier can't progress by having a crotchety relationship with India. As for AI, the future of this tech conversation can't be with China for political and security reasons. This means India is the only natural collaborator for the US, which is evident by the fact that continuing efforts on making semiconductors, electronic goods and smartphones have so far remained unaffected by rest of the ratcheting.
MAGA politics: Importantly, Trump's own agenda is larger than just what's articulated by MAGA backers, especially on big tech. Nonetheless, this core ideological base, as currently reflected through actions and statements of White House advisers Steven Miller and Peter Navarro, is the all-capturing vote-churner in the Trump model, which is what informs the changed approach from White House.
But here's the problem. A big part of the MAGA deliverable is restoration of global US supremacy, not just primacy. And the onus for that has fallen on the US' allies. Trump has used all the power within his fold as US president to ensure submission by allies. The EU, which stood strong and, to an extent, defiant during Trump 1.0, struck a trade compromise in Trump 2.0 because of the Ukraine-Russia war. It needs Washington actively by its side in this conflict, a fact Trump has exploited to his advantage.
Just like China did with supply chains, the Trump regime has leveraged in-built dependencies of US allies to get them to agree to its terms, even though they continue to face opposition within their own geographies, including the EU. India is not a US ally. But Trump assumed a similar dependency because of the extent of India-US strategic cooperation. This assumption was bound to recoil.
India showed that if US tries to play the China and Pakistan card on India, it can also look beyond differences to work with Russia and China in its larger interest. What Trump overlooked is that India's balancing role in the current geopolitical setting has been critical to furthering the Indo-US partnership. India is a bridging power that makes conversations the US cannot, be it within BRICS or elsewhere in the developing world. And this has been helpful to Washington.
For MAGA politics to attain global expression, partners like India are vital. But the assumption in Washington that MAGA's global expression can only be furthered by displaying submission of allies and partners flies in the face of basic geopolitical strategy - ensuring dominance over adversaries with the help of allies and partners, not through their humiliation.
MAGA may make for great politics. But, so far, it has made for bad geopolitical strategy. Repurposing it will rest on inclusion, not exclusion, of partners. And in that call lies the way ahead on unknotting the India relationship.
The Trump factor is, in fact, serving as a unifying factor among leaders now willing to overlook bilateral differences to build added redundancies to Washington's shock-and-awe approach. Japan is struggling with domestic political problems after Trump announced a trade deal with Tokyo. Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, instead of dissolving parliament amid political crisis, to ensure trade deal negotiations continue.
South Korea, despite firming up a trade deal with the US, is now dealing with the political embarrassment of deporting its own citizens following a raid on one of its company's factories in the US, with no courtesies extended. Humiliation of allies is only matched with extensions to China, conveying a confused picture on where MAGA politics stands today.
New Delhi has opted for political maturity instead of locking horns, exploring its options with others while keeping the channel of conversation with Washington open at all levels. This provides ample opportunity for White House to revisit its position. Because India is critical to three key pillars of Trump's own political agenda:
Economy: The economic question, which contains the trade deal, stands independent of all other factors, including the overall geopolitical rationale. It's stuck on a political call on what sort of an economic relationship the Trump regime wants with the fourth-largest economy of the world.
From 'dead economy' barbs to accusations of profiteering through buying oil from Russia, Trump and his aides have made allegations that have not found resonance among other major economies. If anything, India has found more political sympathy barring, of course, Ukraine.
True, 50% tariffs will hurt India. But what economic gains they bring to the US is hazy. On the other hand, an India partnership built outside WTO's MFN construct is a clear win-win, given the growing size of India's economy and consumer base, including for American goods and services.
Defence, energy, AI: India's defence partnership with the US has grown at a quick pace. From a US perspective, India's not just a big potential buyer but also a future collaborator to make new weapon systems, scale up production, and be a stable security provider in the region, particularly the Indo-Pacific.
On energy, India is among the top three consumers. Trump's own articulation of making US the biggest energy supplier can't progress by having a crotchety relationship with India. As for AI, the future of this tech conversation can't be with China for political and security reasons. This means India is the only natural collaborator for the US, which is evident by the fact that continuing efforts on making semiconductors, electronic goods and smartphones have so far remained unaffected by rest of the ratcheting.
MAGA politics: Importantly, Trump's own agenda is larger than just what's articulated by MAGA backers, especially on big tech. Nonetheless, this core ideological base, as currently reflected through actions and statements of White House advisers Steven Miller and Peter Navarro, is the all-capturing vote-churner in the Trump model, which is what informs the changed approach from White House.
But here's the problem. A big part of the MAGA deliverable is restoration of global US supremacy, not just primacy. And the onus for that has fallen on the US' allies. Trump has used all the power within his fold as US president to ensure submission by allies. The EU, which stood strong and, to an extent, defiant during Trump 1.0, struck a trade compromise in Trump 2.0 because of the Ukraine-Russia war. It needs Washington actively by its side in this conflict, a fact Trump has exploited to his advantage.
Just like China did with supply chains, the Trump regime has leveraged in-built dependencies of US allies to get them to agree to its terms, even though they continue to face opposition within their own geographies, including the EU. India is not a US ally. But Trump assumed a similar dependency because of the extent of India-US strategic cooperation. This assumption was bound to recoil.
India showed that if US tries to play the China and Pakistan card on India, it can also look beyond differences to work with Russia and China in its larger interest. What Trump overlooked is that India's balancing role in the current geopolitical setting has been critical to furthering the Indo-US partnership. India is a bridging power that makes conversations the US cannot, be it within BRICS or elsewhere in the developing world. And this has been helpful to Washington.
For MAGA politics to attain global expression, partners like India are vital. But the assumption in Washington that MAGA's global expression can only be furthered by displaying submission of allies and partners flies in the face of basic geopolitical strategy - ensuring dominance over adversaries with the help of allies and partners, not through their humiliation.
MAGA may make for great politics. But, so far, it has made for bad geopolitical strategy. Repurposing it will rest on inclusion, not exclusion, of partners. And in that call lies the way ahead on unknotting the India relationship.
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com.)
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