RIL AGM today: Will Reliance Industries shares break 4-year streak of letdowns?

Four years, four annual general meetings, four disappointments. That’s been the experience for Reliance Industries (RIL) shareholders, who have seen India’s most valued company repeatedly fall short of the fireworks investors expect from its much-anticipated AGMs. This time, however, could be different, not because expectations are higher, but because they’re finally lower.

Over the past four years, RIL shares have slipped after every AGM, setting a pattern that has seasoned investors approaching today’s meeting with cautious optimism. The stock, which closed Thursday at Rs 1,388 on the BSE, has inched up just 0.5% over the last 10 days, hardly the kind of momentum that suggests investors are betting on major announcements.

“Investor interest builds up going into the AGM every year, as several major announcements have been made by the chairman in the past. However, in the last four years, markets have been left disappointed post-AGM, leading to negative stock price reactions,” said Sachin Salgaonkar of Bank of America Securities. “This year, based on our investor interactions and the stock’s performance so far, expectations appear modest, leaving some room for a positive surprise.”

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The disappointments have been steady. The 2024 AGM offered no major value-unlocking events, instead setting longer-term business targets of doubling Jio and Retail revenue and EBITDA, a move that saw the stock lose 4.6% over the following 10 days. The 2023 and 2021 AGMs both triggered 0.5% declines, while 2022 saw a marginal 0.2% drop in the 10-day post-AGM period.


One promise that continues to hang over the company is the IPO timeline for its telecom and retail businesses. "In the 2019 AGM, RIL chairman had mentioned that they will look to IPO telco and retail within 5 years. There has been no update since then," analysts noted, with many investors expecting incremental updates on potential IPO timelines from today's AGM.

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Global brokerages are positioning for potential upside despite Reliance Industries’ (RIL) disappointing AGM track record. UBS expects the company to outperform over the next 12–18 months, noting: “After a period of underperformance versus MSCI India, we expect RIL to do well as the group’s five-year earnings transformation paves the way for value unlocking.”

Bank of America has maintained a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 1,660, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation that assigns Rs 502 to Jio and Rs 560 to the offline retail business. Macquarie, meanwhile, has added Reliance to its Asia Marquee list as a buy idea, setting a 12-month target of Rs 1,580. It expects “an improvement in earnings growth momentum, progress towards a Jio listing, and AGM news flow to tactically support RIL’s share price.”

The focus areas for today’s AGM are well-flagged. Nuvama expects updates on the New Energy (NE) business, which RIL aims to operationalize within four to six quarters. The company commissioned its first line of solar PV modules in April 2025, while its solar PV cell gigafactory is nearing completion. “RIL guided for a remarkable surge in the NE business, with prospective profitability potentially matching current O2C earnings within the next five to seven years,” Nuvama noted.

On Jio and Retail, investors are watching closely for progress on the company’s target of doubling EBITDA in the next three to four years. UBS expects “Jio value unlocking in 12–18 months as it reaches ‘maturity’ with mid-teens growth and expanding cash flows,” while retail growth should strengthen as restructuring efforts conclude.

The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business continues to be RIL’s largest profit driver, contributing two-fifths of EBITDA and over half of attributable profit. Massive petrochemical capacity additions — polyester (5 mtpa), vinyl (3.9 mtpa), and carbon fiber (20 ktpa) by FY27 — remain key milestones to track.

Whether billionaire Mukesh Ambani can finally break the four-year streak of AGM disappointments remains to be seen. But with expectations now tempered and global brokerages endorsing the long-term story, this AGM might be the one that surprises on the upside. The bar, after all, has been set unusually low.

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