RIL AGM today: 5 things that investors expect & should you buy the stock?

With 44 lakh shareholders anxiously awaiting billionaire Mukesh Ambani to announce the timeline for what could be the mother of all IPOs in Dalal Street history, Reliance Industries (RIL) will hold its AGM today, August 29 at 2 PM.

Just ahead of the much-anticipated event, global brokerage firm UBS has resumed coverage on RIL and raised its target price to Rs 1,550, citing value unlocking potential in less cyclical and faster growing businesses of both retail and Jio that could lead to re-rating in the Nifty stock.

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"We expect Jio value unlocking in 12-18 months as it reaches 'maturity' with mid teens growth and growing cash flows," UBS analyst Navin Killa said, adding that listing of the retail business could be 2-3 years away as online businesses and the group's own house of consumer brands may need time to scale up.

Reliance shares, which are already up over 13% so far in 2025, have fallen 2.5% in the last one week amid weakness in the market due to impact of Trump tariff as well as low expectations from the AGM.

BofA's Sachin Salgaonkar said it is this modest expectation that leaves some room for a positive surprise.

Here are key things to watch out for in RIL AGM on August 28:

1) IPO Timeline - The Big Kahuna

In the 2019 AGM, RIL chairman had mentioned that they will look to IPO telco and retail within 5 years but there has been no update since then. As the majority of strategic business announcements are made during AGM, many investors are expecting incremental updates on potential IPO timelines.

"While the market awaits indication of timelines for Reliance Jio and Retail IPOs, we believe the Jio and Retail IPOs, if listed separately, shall attract higher values, but may not have material impact on RIL shareholders as it may be offset by a holding company discount,” Nuvama said.

Also Read | RIL AGM this Friday: Will Mukesh Ambani surprise with Reliance Jio IPO announcement?

2) AI Strategy and JioBrain

BofA expects the Ambanis to speak on Jio's AI strategy. "We note that with an intention to streamline AI adoption, Jio is developing a comprehensive suite of tools called JioBrain (AI service platform)," the brokerage said.

3) New Energy Updates

Any new updates on the new energy business could be viewed positively. BofA highlighted that "RIL is transforming into a deep-tech and advanced manufacturing entity. In its Solar and Battery Giga-Factories, engineering work is completed, procurement is finalized, and equipment deliveries are expected in 2025. The first giga-watt+ scale solar PV module line commenced operations recently."

Nuvama expects to hear updates on RIL's fully integrated polysilicon-to-module, electrolyser and battery manufacturing facility. "RIL targets to operationalise the NE platform in four–six quarters, and expects it to become self-funded over the next few years. Progress on efficiency (>30%) improvement through next-generation Perovskite technology. Use of captive green power shall cut cost by 25%; we conservatively reckon a 6.4% addition to PAT."

Also Read | Mukesh Ambani wants to double RIL size by FY30. What it means for 44 lakh shareholders

4) Jio and Retail Business Growth

At the 2024 AGM, RIL guided for 2x growth by 2030 with Jio and Retail envisaged to double over the next three–four years.

Nuvama is watching for commentary on its target to double the overall business by 2030, doubling of Jio and Retail in three–four years and New Energy (NE) replicating O2C earnings. “Progress on doubling of Jio and Retail EBITDA in the next three–four years—as indicated at the last AGM—is keenly awaited. Upon streamlining, growth in its Retail business remains crucial for investors. An update on Jio Hotstar monetisation and FMCG expansion is awaited."

BofA expects "updates on RIL's ecosystem approach towards consumer & enterprise digital services, JioAirFiber & exporting locally developed 5G stack. Apart from updates on different Retail formats, we may get an update on RIL's quick-commerce biz & fast fashion business (JV with Shein). We expect updates on consumer business (recently spun-off as a direct subsidiary)."

5) Petchem Expansion Progress

Investors are expecting updates on progress on RIL’s massive petchem expansion.

"Amid volatility in regional refining and petchem spreads, we believe Reliance's O2C segment is well placed due to its enhanced integration (between refining and petchem complexes), dynamic crude sourcing (varied global crude mix) and feedstock flexibility (ethane, naphtha and refinery off-gas). We estimate Reliance's gross refining margins (GRMs) to improve from FY25 levels to around US$10/bbl in FY26-27E, with improvement in regional refined produce spreads,” UBS said.

Should You Buy RIL Shares Before AGM?

Most brokerages have a buy call on Reliance Industries given Mukesh Ambani's plan to double earnings by 2029 even as Q1 numbers failed to impress.

"After a period of underperformance vs MSCI India, we expect RIL to perform well in coming 12-18 months as the group's earnings transformation of last 5 years opens path towards value unlocking," UBS said. The brokerage also expects the new energy to start contributing EBITDA from FY27E with 10GW of Solar PV and 15GWh of Battery capacity by then.

CLSA has an outperform call on RIL with a target price of Rs 1,650 and said "Any indications on the Jio IPO at the upcoming AGM will be a key catalyst, along with its FMCG expansion plan and clarity on its AI strategy."

JP Morgan has found RIL’s fair relative valuations an attraction and said it expects RIL to "deliver positive free cash flow" with an EBITDA run-rate of approximately $20 billion annually.

Nuvama has the highest target price of Rs 1,801 on the stock.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)