SUYASH CHOUDHARY
RBI may cut rates in December; bond market outlook turning positive: Bandhan AMC’s Suyash Choudhary
Amid global trade tensions, India's bond market outlook is improving. Suyash Choudhary anticipates potential RBI rate cuts due to contained inflation and growth uncertainties. He suggests that most negative factors impacting yields have subsided, creating attractive opportunities for fixed-income investors across the yield curve.
Dynamic bond mutual funds: Investors supposed all-interest-rate investment has failed in current rate cut-cycle
Amid the bond market’s season of woes, dynamic bond funds appear to have badly miscalculated the payoffs from the rate-cutting cycle
Indian long-bond bull turns seller as supply concerns mount
Suyash Choudhary, a prominent long-bond bull in India, has significantly reduced his holdings of the 7.3% 2053 government paper due to concerns about oversupply and shifting market sentiment. This decision comes after he heavily invested in these securities last year.
Rupee to contend with additional US tariff countdown, bonds to track fiscal developments
This week, the Indian rupee's performance hinges on U.S. trade policy changes. New tariffs on Indian goods are expected. Washington-New Delhi relations have worsened. The U.S. criticizes India's Russian oil purchases. The rupee may initially gain support from potential U.S. rate cuts. Bond yields are expected to fluctuate. India's GST reforms are also under scrutiny.
These factors are driving India's bond yields up, even after RBI's rate cut
Bond investors faced disappointment despite the Reserve Bank of India's rate cuts. Bond yields rose unexpectedly, eroding bond values. Experts attribute this to supply imbalances rather than major macroeconomic concerns. The RBI's shift to a neutral stance further dampened market sentiment. Some believe future rate cuts are possible if inflation eases.
'How to hedge debt mutual fund portfolios in times of volatility'
Suyash Choudhary, Head – Fixed Income, IDFC AMC, said in a note that the current situation in the bond market has triggered them to raise cash levels in their actively managed bond and gilt funds.
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RBI intervention needed to check rupee overvaluation: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC MF
"If you lose control of the dollar in that phase, then conditions would tighten further. I would still attribute less than a 50% probability for a December hike."
Expect RBI to cut rates by 25 bps on September 29: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC MF
'If you look at the last two inflation readings, they have undershot the revised trajectory that it had put out in their previous policy document."
Expect RBI to cut rates two more times this year: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC MF
'Around 50 bps of room for rate cuts remains on the table. The RBI is likely to exercise this room in a staggered fashion.'
See rupee in 62-65 range in near term: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC MF
The other point is that the rupee is overvalued versus most of our trading partners on an RER basis by anywhere between 10% and 15%.
See further rate cuts by RBI in next 2-3 months: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC MF
"Given the fact that you cannot rule out further rate cuts in the next 2-3 months, I would imagine there some cause for excitement for bonds. "
Expect RBI to cut interest rates in April policy: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC MF
Broadly we think as measures to enhance capital productivity over the next financial year, GDP growth can pick up to 6 to 6.5% range.
See rupee in 60-63/dollar range in near term: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC MF
"What also needs to be kept in mind is the currency’s level with respect to non-dollar trading partner currencies."
Rupee is not in for any big shock; status quo for markets likely: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC MF
Although the rupee is under some pressure, there seems to be no likelihood of a rude shock for the currency, says Suyash Choudhary.
Too much of rupee appreciation may dent India's competitiveness versus trading partners: Suyash Choudhary
"I think that the RBI would want to protect too much of an appreciation by trying to build reserves and by buying dollars from the market."
See 4.5-5% GDP growth this year, project offtake to be key going ahead: Suyash Choudhary
"Growth next year will depend on some of the investments coming back into stream and I would look at a flattish GDP for next year."
Rupee sentiment remains buoyant given strong dollar flows: Suyash Choudhary
"Rupee has been fairly stable. Partly, it could be sentimental in the sense that we are getting very robust flows under FCNR and banking capital."
Rupee may break the 60 band in next 2-3 months: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
"In the near term there are sufficient tailwinds for the rupee. "
Expect rupee to hold around current levels for next 2 months: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
The Syria risk is on the backburner at least for the near term. There is expected to be more continuity in Fed leadership
RBI seems to be fine with rupee finding its own level: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
'There seems to be a little more dovishness in the FED official statement, which at the time had pushed back the expectation of QE somewhat.'
Don’t think inflation is going to be a worry over next six months: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
If you were to take a more medium-term view on inflation, there is no pricing power in the system.
Path of rupee seems to be weaker: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
The approach that policy should take is, instead of trying to artificially engineer a stronger rupee, it should just try to stabilise it.
Gas price hike exhibits govt’s intent to improve macros: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
"There will be certain inflationary impacts of these as well on power and fertiliser starting next year, but at this juncture obviously it has to be looked at in a positive light."
Re weakness may continue if US Fed unwinds QE earlier: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
The RBI also over the last three to four months has shown deep concern with regard to our external account vulnerability.
Expect rupee to become a bit stable in days ahead: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
"Especially with the gold import notification coming into place, the rupee may find some stability."
Expect RBI to cut rates by 25 bps on Mar 19: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
"The hope is that with a lag, the divergence will start to subside partly with WPI reaffirming and partly with CPI subsiding," Suyash Choudhary said.
Expect 50 bps repo rate cut by March: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
IIP should possibly print anywhere between 5 and 5.5, maybe shy of the last quarter's GDP print, says Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
Bond markets are expecting at least 2 tranches of OMOs: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
"The biggest indicator to look forward to is the GDP print due Friday and if for some reason it were to show around 5 or a little under, then that would be a fresh impetus for bond markets," says Suyash Choudhary, IDFC.
Short term bond fund a good option to get into: Suyash Choudhary, IDFC
In an interview with ET Now, Suyash Choudhary, Head of Fixed Income, IDFC, speaks about the fixed income market. Excerpts:
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