
The shortage traces back to the pandemic. Tender coconut sales collapsed in 2020-21 as supply chains froze, leading to over-mature nuts and a glut by 2022-23. Prices crashed, discouraging care for trees. “Farmers didn’t replant after the 2023 crash. Now yields have dropped and recovery takes years,” a farmer-producer group member Sunil Cyriac told ToI. Tall trees take five to eight years to bear fruit, while shorter hybrids need three.
Climate swings made matters worse. Heavy rain in 2022, drought in 2023 and heat in 2024-25 hit plantations in Karnataka, where pests damaged 30% of the crop across Tumakuru, Mandya, Hassan, Chikkamagaluru and Chitradurga. Andhra Pradesh saw 25% of plantations destroyed by cyclones and pests. In Tamil Nadu, root wilt disease and whitefly infestation wiped out 40% of yields in Krishnagiri and Tirunelveli.
Kerala struggled with leaf rot disease in central and northern zones, mid-whorl yellowing in the south, abnormal nut fall and tree death. Rhinoceros beetles and red palm weevils compounded the damage.
Festive hike
Festival demand during Onam and Ganesh Chaturthi pushed prices further up. Copra, oil and fresh nuts became scarce.
Production in 2024-25 stood at 1,508 lakh nuts, well below demand. The Goa Horticulture Corporation rushed in 75,000 coconuts from Karnataka, selling them at a subsidised Rs 40-45. Stocks sold out within hours.
Officials stressed the crisis was global. Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Sri Lanka also saw output fall. “Price fluctuation had related factors — crop neglect and climate variation,” said Coconut Development Board marketing director Deepthy Nair.
Coconut oil prices highlighted the crunch -- Rs 4,23,000 per metric tonne in India, nearly triple in two years, according to a Reuters report. Global production stagnated at 3.67 million tonnes in 2024-25, the US agriculture department noted.
India, still the world’s largest producer, is expected to harvest 15 million metric tonnes this year, according to the Coconut Development Board. Karnataka leads with 28.5% of the crop, followed by Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
At beaches, temples and markets, coconuts now reflect the combined weight of climate shocks, pests, neglect and supply chain breakdowns — all packed into a single hard shell.
With inputs from TOI
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