In rebound from Trump blows, India has few choices

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi, let down by his once "true friend" President Donald Trump over choking tariffs on India, clasped hands this past week with the leaders of Russia and China, he was clearly trying to send a message.

Leaving no chance to the official photographers, Modi's interpreter pulled out his phone and circled the three leaders for close-ups.

"They were hoping I was watching," remarked Trump, whose administration has been unraveling two decades of American courtship of India. "And I was watching."

But if Modi's moment of unity with U.S. rivals sent one message, his absence from photographs the next day, when dozens of leaders attended a huge Chinese military parade, sent another.

Modi had quickly jetted back to New Delhi, skipping a spectacle that would remind voters back home that some of China's military hardware is pointed at India.

India's foreign policy has long been a difficult balancing act of nonalignment -- relations and deals in all directions, without getting too close to any one country at the cost of the other.

Modi has taken more risks in recent years, subtly shifting closer to the United States in a bet that it would benefit his country's economic and diplomatic prospects. But that has backfired so publicly in Trump's second term that it has reinforced many officials' belief in the long-tested policy of not taking any sides.

As he seeks to stop the rapid erosion of ties with Washington, officials and analysts say, Modi has now adopted a strategy of avoiding public confrontation with U.S. officials as much as possible, while also jumping at any opportunity to improve relations with Trump to help weather the storm.

And while the downturn in U.S. relations has accelerated India's rapprochement with China, Indian officials are clear that they remain fundamentally wary of Beijing's intentions.

India and China share a 2,100-mile border, and their troops have clashed over part of it. They are rivals in attracting major manufacturers, and India wants to reduce its dependence on China. Beijing has also cultivated ties with India's old adversary Pakistan, including playing a key helping hand in Pakistan's recent military escalation with India.

But Modi has been careful in recent years not to aggravate relations with China, including making sure that visiting U.S. officials did not use New Delhi as a stage to criticize Beijing.

Still, as Trump has fluctuated between expressing his affection for Modi and railing against India's high tariffs and purchases of Russian oil, Indian officials have tried to focus on the positive.

Early Friday, Trump posted on Truth Social that "we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China."

He ended the day by backtracking. When a reporter asked about his post on having "lost India," he replied, "I don't think we have."

Nevertheless, he expressed his disappointment in India's purchases of Russian oil, which his officials have given as the reason for imposing a 50% tariff on New Delhi.

The next morning in India, a semiofficial news agency picked up on Trump's comments about how he will "always be friends with Modi, he is a great prime minister." Modi reposted the statement on social media, saying he deeply appreciates and reciprocates Trump's "sentiments and positive assessment of our ties."

S. Jaishankar, India's foreign minister, chimed in hours later: "We remain engaged with the United States, and at this time I can't say more than that."

In private, Indian officials are vocal about the episode's likely long-term damage to relations.

One senior official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal conversations, said even if the differences over Russian oil and tariffs are settled, the past few months would serve as a reminder to Indian leaders of the unreliability of the Americans for years to come. The official described the dynamics with a rhetorical question: If you slap me four times and then give me an ice cream, does that mean everything is OK now?

"I don't see any government in India buckling under pressure," said Sanjaya Baru, an Indian author and a former government adviser. "Maybe we'll go through a bad patch -- we've gone through a bad patch with the U.S. in the past -- it's not going to be easy, but that's the price for being an independent nation."

The U.S. market and its technology are difficult for India to replace. Nearly 20% of Indian exports go to the United States, according to the World Bank.

But what gives Modi's government some confidence in standing its ground is not just a huge domestic consumer market that keeps the economy ticking, but also that India has a diverse and expanding set of trade and economic relations -- from Southeast Asia to the Middle East and Europe.

Baru emphasised that the overwhelming sentiment among Indians is a reminder that India will be treated as a major power only if its economy grows and it becomes more self-sufficient in areas of strategic importance. Many Indians have noted, he said, how Trump has extended trade talks with China -- in contrast to India -- despite his aggressive rhetoric toward Beijing.

"We need to become more self-reliant in certain areas, take arms production," Baru said. "You cannot be a major player in the world today dependent on buying arms from Russia, Israel or the United States or France, which is what we do now."

India had worked to expand its influence in Washington through largely traditional channels. It had leaned into the influence of Indian Americans in the tech industry, and built ties with U.S. lawmakers -- particularly those with a large number of Indian American constituents. Even during the first Trump administration, the Indian government could ask Republican lawmakers to make calls to the White House on issues such as student visas.

This time, there is little of that.

"The short answer is MAGA," said Seema Sirohi, a Washington-based columnist and the author of a book on U.S.-Indian relations.

Sirohi said the backlash among Trump's most fervent supporters against India has been so strong that, for many Indians and Indian Americans, it almost feels like "the dominant cultural event that's taking place right now."

Powerful Indian American tech executives or even Indian American members of Congress would be unlikely to get in front of that, she said, and more traditional Republican lawmakers supportive of Indian positions have largely remained silent for fear of a challenge on the right.

"Those senators and congressmen are not willing to take on Trump over India," she said. "They will get primaried out of existence."