Ashish Kacholia's portfolio conundrum: When earnings pop but stock prices sink up to 37% in CY25

While the corporate earnings of ace investor Ashish Kacholia’s portfolio companies remained largely resilient in Q4FY25, their stock market performance in calendar year 2025 tells a different story. An ETMarkets analysis of 29 portfolio stocks shows that 16 companies posted year-on-year growth in net profit, whereas 11 reported declines and 2 saw their losses deepen.

On the returns front, the divergence is sharper—18 stocks have declined by as much as 37% this year, while the remaining 11 managed gains of up to 32%, highlighting a disconnect between earnings momentum and investor sentiment.

High-growth firms like Awfis Space Solutions, Quadrant Future Tek, and Man Industries delivered stellar bottom-line growth while yielding mixed share price returns, highlighting the disconnect between fundamentals and investor sentiment.

While Kacholia publicly holds 48 stocks in his portfolio, only those stocks whose January-March quarter earnings have been declared, are taken into consideration. The data has been taken from Ace Equity.

Q4FY25 earnings analysis

The fourth quarter of FY25 has turned out to be a season of contrasting outcomes—while many companies in Kacholia’s portfolio posted eye-popping profit numbers, not all have been rewarded by the market. A group of 27 companies saw higher profit after tax (PAT) in the January-March quarter of FY25 over the corresponding period of FY24, though the YoY PAT growth was down for 11 companies as discussed above. In this five have clocked more than 100% YoY gains viz. Awfis Space Solutions, Quadrant Future Tek, Man Industries (India), Acutaas Chemicals and Balu Forge Industries.

Topping the list is Awfis Space, which reported a 717% PAT growth, driven by a robust 46.22% increase in revenue, though the stock declined 5.63% in CY25 so far. Similarly, Quadrant Future Tek, which was listed on January 14, posted 547% PAT growth and 13.79% revenue growth, positioning it as a highly anticipated listing in the startup space.

Man Industries also stood out with 182% profit growth on the back of 50% revenue growth, aligning well with its 21% return in CY25—demonstrating market acknowledgment of performance. Acutaas Chemicals and Balu Forge followed with 144% and 123% growth in PAT, respectively, driven by strong topline numbers, although Balu Forge’s stock is down 12.57%, suggesting valuation or sector-specific concerns.

Another notable performer was Faze Three, which doubled its net profit by 95% and posted 33% CY25 return, highlighting a stronger correlation between earnings and stock appreciation.

Revenue report card

Advait Energy reported the highest sales growth at 226%, though PAT growth was more moderate at 78%, and the stock has barely moved (+4% CY25). Similarly, Tanfac Industries and Shaily Engineering clocked 67%+ revenue growth with more tempered—but solid—profitability gains of 79% and 485%, respectively.

CY25 returns: Winners & laggards

Stocks like Sanjivani Paranteral (-37%), Knowledge Marine (-32%), and Stove Kraft (-33%) have seen their prices fall sharply, despite recording PAT growth of over 50% (in the case of Sanjivani). Similarly, Zaggle Prepaid (-15%) and Universal Auto Foundry (-25%) posted healthy sales growth but remained in the red.

On the flip side, Faze Three, Man Industries, and Shaily Engineering bucked the trend by delivering both robust earnings and strong CY25 returns.

The underperformers mostly saw a double-whammy of earnings decline and weak CY25 stock movement. Walchandnagar Industries posted a 56% drop in PAT and a 42% fall in sales, which was mirrored in a 17.6% CY25 return. Similarly, Xpro India (47% PAT) and Stove Kraft (46% PAT) saw severe declines both operationally and on the bourses.

Ace Equity has identified 13 other stocks which have not declared Q4 earnings. They are Megatherm Induction, Concord Control Systems, Beta Drugs, Infinium Pharmachem, Shree OSFM E-Mobility, Qualitek Labs, Saakshi Medtech & Panels, Naman In-Store (India), DU Digital Global, C2C Advanced Systems, Inflame Appliances, TBI Corn and Radiowalla Network.

In this, Megatherm Induction and Concord Control Systems have given positive returns of 12% and 2%, respectively. The rest are into the red seeing share prices erode between 4% and 46% on the year-to-date basis.

The sharpest fall has been in Inflame Appliances (42%), TBI Corn (44%) and Radiowalla Network (46%). Saakshi Medtech & Panels, Naman In-Store (India), DU Digital Global and C2C Advanced Systems are also among stocks declining in double digits.

Kacholia holds stake in companies in his name and through Suryavanshi Commotrade Private Limited. Majority of his stocks are smallcaps.

India's headline index Nifty has delivered 5.8% returns on the year-to-date basis.

(Data inputs: Ritesh Presswala)

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