GST meeting, expiry shift and auto sales data among 11 factors that’ll steer D-Street this week

Indian benchmark indices ended the holiday-truncated week 1.8% lower on concerns over US tariffs. A host of important domestic and global events lined up during the week are likely to impact stock markets when they resume trading on Monday.

On Friday, the Nifty closed 74.05 points, or 0.3%, lower to end the day at 24,426.85.

Commenting on Friday's session and the start of the September series, Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President – Research at Religare Broking, said that the new derivatives series started on a muted note, extending the prevailing corrective phase. "The ongoing decline appears to be more sentiment-driven in the absence of fresh positive triggers, and the Nifty is now approaching a critical support zone at 24,250–24,350. Meanwhile, the banking index has almost tested its major support around the 200 DEMA at 53,600, which could prompt some pause or even a rebound," he said.

"Mishra recommends a cautious approach with a greater emphasis on risk management until clear signs of consolidation emerge."

Factors likely to impact market movement when trading resumes this week:

1) US court’s tariff ruling

A US appeals court ruling on Friday, which deemed most of President Donald Trump’s tariffs illegal, could offer some sentimental relief for global markets. However, the decision is not final—the tariffs will remain in effect until at least October 14, giving the Trump administration time to appeal to the Supreme Court.

The tariffs have been a central part of Trump’s international economic policy, aligned with his "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) agenda.

2) Nifty, Sensex expiry shift

Markets will adjust to the new expiry schedule for both headline indices, Nifty and the BSE Sensex. Going forward, NSE index derivatives will expire on Tuesdays, while BSE-based indices will expire on Thursdays.

3) GST Council meeting

The high-powered GST Council meeting, chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on September 3–4, will be closely watched by the Street. Any progress on the proposed two-slab taxation regime could act as a market trigger.

Auto and consumption stocks, seen as key beneficiaries of this potential reform, have already reflected this optimism. These sectors outperformed in August, despite it being a relatively lackluster month for the broader market.

4) Auto sales numbers

Auto companies are set to release their August sales figures on Monday. As a result, auto and auto ancillary stocks are likely to remain in focus, with any surprises, positive or negative, potentially influencing broader market sentiment.

5) US markets

Wall Street saw some profit booking on Friday after major indices scaled new highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,544.90, down 92.02 points or 0.20%, while the S&P 500 settled at 6,460.26, slipping 41.60 points or 0.64%. The Nasdaq Composite was the biggest loser, falling 249.61 points or 1.15% to close at 21,455.60.

Both domestic and global markets are likely to take cues from the performance and sentiment in US markets.

6) Corporate Action

Around 100 companies have corporate actions scheduled this week, including record dates for dividends, stock splits, and bonus shares—adding to the buzz over the five-day trading week.

Widely tracked stocks likely to witness action include Triveni Turbine, Triveni Engineering & Industries, Deepak Fertilisers, GNFC, Concord Biotech, Patanjali Foods, Prestige Estates, Clean Science and Technology, Gujarat Gas, Kalyan Jewellers India, NTPC, Oil India, ONGC, and Shipping Corporation of India.

7) IPO activity

Over three dozen companies debuted on D-Street in August, and September is shaping up to be eventful as well. This week, seven IPOs are lined up for launch across the mainboard and SME platforms.

In the mainboard segment, Amanta Healthcare will be the only issue opening for subscription.

Six SME companies – Rachit Prints, Optivalue Tek Consulting, Goel Construction, Sharvaya Metals, Vigor Plast India, and Amanta Healthcare – will also launch their issues.

8) FII/DII Action

Market movements will largely depend on the behavior of foreign institutional investors (FIIs). On Friday, FIIs recorded outflows of Rs 8,312.66 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 11,487.64 crore.

So far in 2025, FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 1,30,635 crore, with a notable sell-off of Rs 34,993 crore in August alone.

9) Technical Factors

Osho Krishan, Senior Analyst – Technical & Derivatives at Angel One, presents a gloomy technical outlook for the market, with the Nifty positioned below its 100-day exponential moving average (100-DEMA).

“This positioning suggests a bearish trend characterized by the formation of lower lows, indicating a persistent decline in prices. Moreover, the index is just a short distance from the recent swing low near the 24,350 zone, signalling potential further downside risk if this level is breached,” Krishan explained. He notes that current biases reflect a consistent presence of bears in the Advance-Decline metrics.

Krishan warns that a breakdown below 24,350 could worsen the near-term outlook, potentially pushing the index toward the 24,150–24,100 zone (200-day simple moving average). Resistance is expected between 24,600 and 24,800, with investors advised to lighten long positions on any bounces.

Angel One’s advice to investors is to refrain from placing aggressive bets on either side and wait for market stability.

Also Read: 360 BSE 500 stocks bleed in August, 65 lose in double-digits; Maruti & KIOCL shine with up to 28% jump

10) Rupee Vs Dollar

The Indian rupee hit a new low of 88.31 against the US dollar, marking its lowest-ever level, before recovering slightly to close at 88.20.

Commenting on the current trend, Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said the dollar was bid against the rupee mainly due to MSCI outflows and month-end demand. He added that fears over the 50% tariffs imposed by Trump have pushed the rupee to its lowest level in six months, keeping the dollar well bid despite its decline against other currencies.

“As demand for the dollar surged, the 87.95 level—strongly defended by the RBI—was breached, leading to fresh lows during the day. On Monday, we expect the rupee to trade between 87.90 and 88.40,” Bhansali said. He recommended that importers consider buying on any dips, while exporters may prefer to wait before selling, anticipating further upside as the pair enters a new trading range.

11. Crude Oil

Oil prices fell on Friday amid weak demand and rising US oil production. US WTI crude oil contracts closed at $64.01, down $0.59 or 0.91%, while Brent crude futures hovered near $67.48, up $0.52 or 0.76%.

Crude oil prices significantly influence inflation, as higher fuel costs raise transportation and input prices, leading to broad-based price pressures.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)