RIL AGM this Friday: Will Mukesh Ambani surprise with Reliance Jio IPO announcement?

Dalal Street is holding its breath as billionaire Mukesh Ambani prepares to address 44 lakh shareholders of India’s largest conglomerate at Reliance Industries' (RIL) Annual General Meeting (AGM) this Friday, August 29. With modest expectations setting the stage, Asia’s richest man could spring a surprise that transforms the conglomerate's trajectory and potentially unleashes one of the world's largest telecom IPOs.

"As the majority of strategic business announcements are made during AGM, many investors are expecting incremental updates on potential IPO timelines from AGM," BofA Securities said.

Back in the 2019 AGM, Ambani had told shareholders that they will look to IPO the telecom and retail arms within five years. Since then, there has been no update leaving RIL shareholders desperately waiting for clarity on potential timelines and valuations for a Jio IPO that could serve as a massive trigger for the bluechip Nifty stock.

Market dynamics, in the meantime, have shifted in Jio's favor. The telecom industry, which is seeing increase in EBITDA and moderation in capex, is now believed to be headed towards a tariff hike in the next 2 quarters, according to BNP Paribas analysts. Jio's recent move to discontinue some of its entry level prepaid plans also implied focus on monetization.

Besides, markets regulator Sebi had recently issued a consultation paper proposing that companies with post-IPO market capitalization above Rs 5 lakh crore would need to float just 2.5% of their equity, down from the current 5%. For Jio, valued by Citi at over $120 billion (Rs 10.4 lakh crore), this regulatory shift could be a game-changer.

"A 5% public offer would amount to $6 billion+ of share supply, which is fairly large for the Indian market to absorb, especially as 35% is reserved for retail investors," Citi analysts Saurabh Handa and Prerna Goenka said. "A 2.5% public offer for Jio would amount to $3 billion+ of share supply, which we believe not only reduces the supply overhang at the time of the IPO but could also limit hold-company discount concerns for RIL."

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BofA's Sachin Salgaonkar sees the setup as favorable for upside. "This year till date, basis our investor interactions & stock performance, we think that the investor expectations are modest, leaving some room to positively surprise," he noted, while maintaining a Buy rating on RIL with a target price of Rs 1,660. RIL shares are up about 15% so far in 2025 and ended Friday's session 1% lower at Rs 1,409.3 on BSE.

The modest expectations come with good reason. "We also note that in last 4 years, market was disappointed post AGM, leading to negative stock price reaction," Salgaonkar observed. Last year exemplified this pattern—the stock surged 2.9% in anticipation of the AGM but crashed 4.6% in the 10 days following the event.

Also Read | Reliance Jio, NSE IPOs coming soon? Sebi clears roadblock for mega multi-billion dollar listings

Beyond IPO announcements

While IPO timelines dominate investor focus, Ambani's agenda extends far beyond listing strategies:

Jio's AI Revolution: The telecom arm is developing JioBrain, a comprehensive AI service platform, as part of its ecosystem approach toward consumer and enterprise digital services. Updates on the locally developed 5G stack and JioAirFiber expansion are expected.

New Energy Ambitions: RIL is transforming into a deep-tech manufacturing entity. "In its Solar and Battery Giga-Factories, engineering work is completed, procurement is finalized, and equipment deliveries are expected in 2025. The first giga-watt+ scale solar PV module line commenced operations recently," BofA noted.

Nuvama expects updates on the fully integrated polysilicon-to-module, electrolyser and battery manufacturing facility, with RIL targeting operationalization of the New Energy platform in four-six quarters.

Retail Revolution: Beyond traditional retail updates, investors await progress on the quick-commerce business and the fast fashion joint venture with Shein. Updates on Jio Hotstar monetization and FMCG expansion are also anticipated.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)