Reliance Industries shares end over 2% lower on AGM day

Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) slipped 2.32% lower to settle at Rs 1,355.45 on the BSE on Friday, even as Chairman Mukesh Ambani told shareholders at the conglomerate's Annual General Meeting (AGM) that the much-awaited IPO of Reliance Jio, which could be the largest in the history of Dalal Street, would come in the first half of 2026.

With 44 lakh shareholders tuned in, Mukesh Ambani said that Reliance Jio can generate value on par with its global peers, telling investors at the annual general meeting that the long-awaited IPO will be a very attractive opportunity for those looking to buy in.

A 4-year streak of letdowns

Reliance stock has slipped after each of the past four AGMs, highlighting a pattern of inflated expectations followed by muted announcements. Last year, shares lost 4.6% in the 10 days following the meeting after the company offered little beyond long-term growth guidance for Jio and Retail. Similar post-event declines marked 2023, 2022, and 2021.

“Investor interest builds up going into AGM every year as several major announcements have been made by the chairman in past AGMs. However, we also note that in the last 4 years, the market was disappointed post AGM, leading to negative stock price reaction,” said Sachin Salgaonkar of Bank of America Securities. Salgaonkar said that this year, “expectations are modest, leaving some room to positively surprise.”

IPOs take center stage

The long-pending IPOs of Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail remain the biggest trigger for investors. In 2019, Ambani had said the two arms would list within five years. That timeline has now expired with no update, and shareholders will be looking for clarity.

Brokerages see huge potential but warn of structural issues. Nuvama noted, “While the market awaits indication of timelines for Reliance Jio and Retail IPOs, we believe the Jio and Retail IPOs, if listed separately, shall attract higher values, but may not have material impact on RIL shareholders as it may be offset by a holding company discount.”

Adding intrigue, new regulations from Sebi propose that companies with a post-IPO market capitalization above Rs 5 lakh crore would need to float just 2.5% of their equity, down from 5%. For Jio, which is valued at over $120 billion by Citi, that could cut the supply overhang at the time of listing and reduce the holding company discount risk for Reliance.

Beyond listings: AI and New Energy

Artificial intelligence is expected to feature prominently. BofA highlighted Reliance’s development of JioBrain, a platform designed to integrate smart services across its ecosystem. Updates on JioAirFiber, locally developed 5G technology, and digital monetization initiatives like Jio Hotstar are also anticipated.

Energy remains central to Reliance’s transformation. The company has already begun operations at its first gigawatt-scale solar PV module line and is progressing on integrated giga-factories for solar, batteries, and green hydrogen.

Nuvama expects updates on timelines for operationalizing these businesses, targeted to become self-funded in the next few years. Efficiency improvements from technologies like Perovskite solar cells and captive green power cost cuts are also being closely watched.

Retail and consumer push

Reliance’s retail operations are under equal scrutiny. At last year’s AGM, management guided for Jio and Retail to double revenues and EBITDA by 2030. Investors now await progress reports, particularly on quick commerce and the fashion joint venture with Shein. Updates on FMCG expansion and the performance of Jio’s consumer services are also anticipated.

What brokerages are saying

Brokerage sentiment ahead of the AGM is largely positive. Jefferies has a “Buy” rating with a target price of Rs 1,670, citing growth momentum across Jio, Retail, and Energy.

JP Morgan has an “Overweight” call with a target of Rs 1,695, arguing valuations remain attractive. Meanwhile, UBS, which recently resumed coverage, set a target of Rs 1,550 and expects “value unlocking in less cyclical, faster-growing businesses of both Retail and Jio.”

Bank of America maintains a “Buy” rating with a target of Rs 1,660, noting that modest expectations leave room for upside. Macquarie has added Reliance to its Asia Marquee list with a Rs 1,580 target, while Nuvama remains the most bullish with a Rs 1,801 price target.

The stakes at this AGM

Reliance stock, up 13.6% so far in 2025 but down 1.5% in the past week amid market jitters from Trump’s tariff policy, is again at an inflection point. Whether Mukesh Ambani can break the streak of four years of letdowns remains to be seen.

As UBS summed it up that “After a period of underperformance vs MSCI India, we expect RIL to perform well in coming 12-18 months as the group’s earnings transformation of the last 5 years opens path towards value unlocking.” For now, the bar has been set low, a setup that might just give Ambani the chance to surprise.

Also read | RIL AGM today: Will Reliance Industries shares break 4-year streak of letdowns?

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)