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The major indices are broadly lower at midday on Monday. There's not much good news out there to celebrate. Renewed strikes between the U.S. and Iran have increased tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices are climbing again. Add to that, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh hinted last week that rates might be heading higher as inflation stays stubbornly elevated. Crude oil is at $85 per barrel. The yield on the 10-year note is at 4.76%.

Herbalife sells nutritional supplements, personal care and weight-management products worldwide. Its products are sold in 95 markets across the globe. HLF was incorporated in the Cayman Islands in 2002 as a holding company for Herbalife International, which was founded in 1980. The operating company is headquartered in Los Angeles.

Earnings season is almost over, with about 97% of S&P 500 companies having reported as of Friday. Many knocked it out of the park, delivering earnings and revenue numbers that were well ahead of expectations. We always look at trends and, as usual, there are companies increasing guidance. Raising guidance is one of our Investing Themes for the second half of 2026. We view management's ability to raise guidance consistently as a catalyst for possible market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. It's even harder for companies to lift guidance during uncertain economic times, as vision is murky. This is true now, as the war in the Middle East drags on. As well, Wall Street has a new chairman of the Federal Reserve, one with a different view about forward-looking guidance (or in this case, a lack thereof). As many companies increased guidance during this earnings cycle, we put out two lists. The first was back on August 3 -- and now we offer up our second list, made up of companies in Argus' fundamental Universe of Coverage. Many of the names in this latest list are in the consumer space, as these companies tend to report at the end of earnings season.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will report the August unemployment rate. Our forecast is for a healthy 4.1% result, just below the 4.2% consensus. In his Jackson Hole keynote speech last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh offered a similarly upbeat assessment. "On the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, our country is doing well. Labor markets are quite stable." He added the following. "The jobless rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low by historical standards and has not changed much for a couple of years." To be sure, job growth has slowed. The three-month average change in nonfarm payrolls declined to 20,000 in July, from 142,000 in May as July payrolls declined by 23,000. We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 in August, versus consensus of 45,000. The weekly ADP report recently showed private payroll gains averaging about 12,000 a week, or about 48,000 on a four-week basis. Mr. Warsh provided an explanation for slow growth. "When labor supply is barely growing, monthly job gains are naturally going to run low." The median estimate in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters is for a monthly average of 46,600 payroll gains in 3Q26, improving to 66,400 in 4Q. While hires are low, layoffs are too. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims, at 205,500, is well below the 300,000 that would worry us. Based on the advance release of the Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators, there is a 29.5% probability that the August unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%, a 20.8% probability it will fall to 4.0%, and a 20.2% probability it will rise to 4.2%. Overall, the probability tips towards a lower unemployment rate. "People who want to work, by and large, are holding or finding jobs," Warsh said. "They may well be concerned about possible future labor disruptions, but as of now, I believe the labor markets are consistent with full employment."